Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

[HKY_WX]

4 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

There are some hints of a roll-over ridge and a return of the +PNA towards the last week of February. Don't see much in the way of winter related action prior to that. Enjoy the thaw next week for now. 

AI Euro is showing what i was referring to. Roll over ridges out west normally teleconnect to an eastern US trough. The models this far out are normally pretty worthless, so take with caution.

[wncsnow]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet. 

[RaleighNC]

14 hours ago, JoshM said:

GFS can't decide if Valentine's day is going to be a CAD ice storm, Miller A snow, or 70s and thunderstorms. 90% of the time I would bet on thunderstorms, but not this winter. 

I vote for none of the above because I have Dropkick Murphys tickets

 

[BornAgain13]

Would love to see a big last half of Winter but even if we don't, this winter has been much above normal up this way.

15.05" so far of Snow/Sleet

[BooneWX]

End of next week looking a lot less torchy on guidance. The PNA is headed to negative territory but that block just doesn’t want to budge. Valentine’s may be a severe event but we could also trend firmly into a cad/miller b type of look with just a few more tweaks. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet. 

0Z Euro: nice snow NE NC AM of Feb 13th:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like a spring time cycle of thaw/cold shot/repeat for the remainder of the month 

[olafminesaw]

Grauple alert!

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like a spring time cycle of thaw/cold shot/repeat for the remainder of the month 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Holy hell yesterday’s low turned into a monster in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast. What could have been!!!

[eyewall]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Holy hell yesterday’s low turned into a monster in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast. What could have been!!!

It sure did. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades though as we know in Wake County. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

Watching this very closely, this model has shown the solution for most of the last few runs. Other models are kind of all over the place. I was already fascinated by the AI models and the relationship to the traditional physics based ones. This is going to be a good test case it looks like.


.

[wncsnow]

Cold and snowy begets cold and snowy. Weather is very cyclical around here. We went through a very snow starved cycle and now its time for a snowy cycle. It's done this for the past 100 years. 

[BooneWX]

When torch?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

43 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Cold and snowy begets cold and snowy. Weather is very cyclical around here. We went through a very snow starved cycle and now its time for a snowy cycle. It's done this for the past 100 years. 

Hence, this Board”s legendary saying “it just wants to snow.”

[BooneWX]

I frankly don’t care how - that PNA is. Normally you’re starving for it to be + so you can get something to dig enough but that block means business to our north. It’s going to bully these storm systems south. I won’t be shocked if the AIFS is on to something for next weekend and we’re tracking by early week again. The king, Weathernext, is hinting at the possibility too. Give me a -NAO and a cold Canada and I’ll always like my chances. Someone is due for a pasting at 5:1 ratios before we head to spring. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

12Z Euro has notable snow much of NC and VA starting Valentine’s Day afternoon and ending late that night: