Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Orange county said:

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

Here are the 8 big storms I’m referring to from 2/25-3/3: only 2 of them (25%) were slop storms as these were mostly very high impact storms

-3/2-3/1960: 6.5” at RDU with high of only 29; 6.1” at GSO with high of only 27

-2/26/1963: 6.9” RDU with still 3” on ground 2/28

“An estimated 100 people were hospitalized due to weather-related traffic accidents and pedestrian falls.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=25#:~:text=The%20first%20heavy%20statewide%20snowfall,traffic%20accidents%20and%20pedestrian%20falls.

 

-3/1/1969: 9.3” RDU/10.7” GSO: snowcover of 2”+ through 3/4

-3/1-2/1980: 11.1” RDU and 7.9” GSO; frigid with teens during snow; 5-9” still on ground 3/4!

-2/26-27/2004: “The storm, which brought heavier 12–18 inch totals to the Piedmont/Triad area, caused significant disruption, with cold temperatures allowing the snow to stick, causing hazardous travel condition”

-2/26/1952: RDU 3.5”/GSO 6” slop storm

-2/27/1987: 5.2” RDU/7.5” GSO slop storm

-2/25-26/2015: 5.1” RDU/6.4” GSO with 1-2” still on ground 3/1

“The heavy, wet snow caused extensive power outages in many of the hardest hit counties, with some power outages extending beyond 24 hours.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=604
 

[Upstate Tiger]

 

 

[GaWx]

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

 

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

February 18

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

 

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

Good data!  The NAO looks to be negative for this potential event but you are correct that the PNA is the teleconnection with the largest impact on SE winter weather IMO.  This is 10 days out and the teleconnection forecasts can be tricky so maybe it will change.  I haven't looked at the MJO forecast.

[olafminesaw]

35 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

February 18

Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

February 18

This is already more exciting than tonights little event has been since it started, start the thread. 

 

(Folks, this is sarcasm )

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear

That's a miller A signal the Euro AI. the others have a miller B...... With the current south trends, I would not count out an all-snow event.

[JoshM]

GFS can't decide if Valentine's day is going to be a CAD ice storm, Miller A snow, or 70s and thunderstorms. 90% of the time I would bet on thunderstorms, but not this winter. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

After an early week thaw, cold punches back back late next week in the East ?

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

February 16

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think we (south of 85) are done for the year in terms of a big snowstorm. Might be a CAD or novelty event yet but we (everyone but wake county) had our storm of the decade

[eyewall]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we (south of 85) are done for the year in terms of a big snowstorm. Might be a CAD or novelty event yet but we (everyone but wake county) had our storm of the decade

And people were getting on me for saying this very thing. We had our chance and it didn't work out here and it sucks. Valentine's Day is much more likely to rain and/or a mixed p event. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Got a dusting last night.  If nothing else it coated the brown and black piles. Sitting right at 11” for the season.  Hard to complain.  
 

[eyewall]

10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Valentine’s Day 

This morning's version:

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This morning's version:

Euro AI disagrees 

[HKY_WX]

There are some hints of a roll-over ridge and a return of the +PNA towards the last week of February. Don't see much in the way of winter related action prior to that. Enjoy the thaw next week for now. 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

And people were getting on me for saying this very thing. We had our chance and it didn't work out here and it sucks. Valentine's Day is much more likely to rain and/or a mixed p event. 

The remainder of the winter remains long shots, but some of us enjoy tracking. Just a few more spins of the slot machine, hoping for three cherries 

[HKY_WX]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we (south of 85) are done for the year in terms of a big snowstorm. Might be a CAD or novelty event yet but we (everyone but wake county) had our storm of the decade

It wasn't that bad up here in central Franklin. We had an 1" back in December, 1.5" sleet, and then 5 inches last weekend. So i guess a total of around 7". Better than the last few winters. We definitely missed out on 2 historic opportunities though. Could have been much better, which is what leaves a bit of a bitter taste on this winter thus far. That said, we still have about 5 (maybe 6) weeks left where we can realistically get something, but the extended modes aren't overly exciting at this point. They have overpredicted the collapse of the -NAO/AO all year though, so I haven't completely given up hope.

[eyewall]

23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The remainder of the winter remains long shots, but some of us enjoy tracking. Just a few more spins of the slot machine, hoping for three cherries 

Yeah I hear you as unlike us you guys scored in the last big event so anything else is a bonus. 9 days to go to Valentine's Day so whatever we see now will likely not be the actual result of course. Still in the pattern recognition phase. 

[olafminesaw]

Some models showing a little burst of snow from the clipper riding the arctic front Friday evening. Something to watch, but not very impactful with surface temps lagging

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

It wasn't that bad up here in central Franklin. We had an 1" back in December, 1.5" sleet, and then 5 inches last weekend. So i guess a total of around 7". Better than the last few winters. We definitely missed out on 2 historic opportunities though. Could have been much better, which is what leaves a bit of a bitter taste on this winter thus far. That said, we still have about 5 (maybe 6) weeks left where we can realistically get something, but the extended modes aren't overly exciting at this point. They have overpredicted the collapse of the -NAO/AO all year though, so I haven't completely given up hope.

Yep my farm in Louisburg had nearly 5” on the ground when I got up there on Monday so I am assuming they had 6-7” from the storm which obviously is a big hit around here. Here in the snow hole we had 0.4” in December, 0.7” from the sleet storm and 2.6” from last weekends storm so 3.7” on the year, which has to be the lowest or close to lowest total in the entire state. Even eyewall got warning criteria snow at his location last weekend, and I think most areas in wake had over 1” of sleet from the other storm, so I feel like I live in THE snow hole this year

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I hear you as unlike us you guys scored in the last big event so anything else is a bonus. 9 days to go to Valentine's Day so whatever we see now will likely not be the actual result of course. Still in the pattern recognition phase. 

Your frustration is totally justified. A lot easier to be optimistic when we've already scored big time out this way. I have a feeling something funky is going to happen last week of February or first week of March and all here will be off though

[GaWx]

 Following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as I expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[GaWx]

 This is very telling (add much of the Triad to CLT):

[GaWx]

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?”