Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Orange county said:

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

Here are the 8 big storms I’m referring to from 2/25-3/3: only 2 of them (25%) were slop storms as these were mostly very high impact storms

-3/2-3/1960: 6.5” at RDU with high of only 29; 6.1” at GSO with high of only 27

-2/26/1963: 6.9” RDU with still 3” on ground 2/28

“An estimated 100 people were hospitalized due to weather-related traffic accidents and pedestrian falls.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=25#:~:text=The%20first%20heavy%20statewide%20snowfall,traffic%20accidents%20and%20pedestrian%20falls.

 

-3/1/1969: 9.3” RDU/10.7” GSO: snowcover of 2”+ through 3/4

-3/1-2/1980: 11.1” RDU and 7.9” GSO; frigid with teens during snow; 5-9” still on ground 3/4!

-2/26-27/2004: “The storm, which brought heavier 12–18 inch totals to the Piedmont/Triad area, caused significant disruption, with cold temperatures allowing the snow to stick, causing hazardous travel condition”

-2/26/1952: RDU 3.5”/GSO 6” slop storm

-2/27/1987: 5.2” RDU/7.5” GSO slop storm

-2/25-26/2015: 5.1” RDU/6.4” GSO with 1-2” still on ground 3/1

“The heavy, wet snow caused extensive power outages in many of the hardest hit counties, with some power outages extending beyond 24 hours.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=604
 

[Upstate Tiger]

 

 

[GaWx]

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

 

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

February 18

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

 

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

Good data!  The NAO looks to be negative for this potential event but you are correct that the PNA is the teleconnection with the largest impact on SE winter weather IMO.  This is 10 days out and the teleconnection forecasts can be tricky so maybe it will change.  I haven't looked at the MJO forecast.

[olafminesaw]

35 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

February 18

Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

February 18

This is already more exciting than tonights little event has been since it started, start the thread. 

 

(Folks, this is sarcasm )

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear

That's a miller A signal the Euro AI. the others have a miller B...... With the current south trends, I would not count out an all-snow event.

[JoshM]

GFS can't decide if Valentine's day is going to be a CAD ice storm, Miller A snow, or 70s and thunderstorms. 90% of the time I would bet on thunderstorms, but not this winter.