Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Orange county said:

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

Here are the 8 big storms I’m referring to from 2/25-3/3: only 2 of them (25%) were slop storms as these were mostly very high impact storms

-3/2-3/1960: 6.5” at RDU with high of only 29; 6.1” at GSO with high of only 27

-2/26/1963: 6.9” RDU with still 3” on ground 2/28

“An estimated 100 people were hospitalized due to weather-related traffic accidents and pedestrian falls.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=25#:~:text=The%20first%20heavy%20statewide%20snowfall,traffic%20accidents%20and%20pedestrian%20falls.

 

-3/1/1969: 9.3” RDU/10.7” GSO: snowcover of 2”+ through 3/4

-3/1-2/1980: 11.1” RDU and 7.9” GSO; frigid with teens during snow; 5-9” still on ground 3/4!

-2/26-27/2004: “The storm, which brought heavier 12–18 inch totals to the Piedmont/Triad area, caused significant disruption, with cold temperatures allowing the snow to stick, causing hazardous travel condition”

-2/26/1952: RDU 3.5”/GSO 6” slop storm

-2/27/1987: 5.2” RDU/7.5” GSO slop storm

-2/25-26/2015: 5.1” RDU/6.4” GSO with 1-2” still on ground 3/1

“The heavy, wet snow caused extensive power outages in many of the hardest hit counties, with some power outages extending beyond 24 hours.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=604
 

[Upstate Tiger]

 

 

[GaWx]

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

 

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.