NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 differences at H5 for our timeframe. Not horrifically far apart but obviously not the same. I'll let someone smarter take it from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Kicker! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WxUSAF said: Kicker! Justin Tucker. Let's hope we have a happy ending. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: differences at H5 for our timeframe. Not horrifically far apart but obviously not the same. I'll let someone smarter take it from here Euro has a decent vort max over Minnesota, the GFS does not. Seems to interfere with the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WxUSAF said: Kicker! poor wave spacing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Slightly better in that the trof s/w is wester than 6z. But that's about it so far And now compared to 6z, either it's slower or it just degraded a bit with the trof...more pos tilt than neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Euro looks like a step in the wrong direction. Tilt looks worse. Energy over the north central is interfering, and not ideal wave spacing. Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 we need to get to a nino I am declaring winter over today....again 3 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Euro looks like a step in the wrong direction. Tilt looks worse. Energy over the north central is interfering, and not ideal wave spacing. Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. GFS just seems off its game lately. Worse than usual. Not just with this Thursday storm, but I've been tracking snow in other areas of country and its just horribly bad even in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z GFS AIFS and GFS ensembles for the 19th storm... Interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I dont generally post about LR windows often. Was never a huge fan of the 24th/25th. As I noted to Cape, the pattern at that time points to the boundary to our North. The wave that slides east at that time helps drag the boundary back south of us in addition to better ridging up top pressing the pv south. The best chance that I have circled on the calendar, and that ensembles are starting to warm up to, is Jan 27-29. Too far out to get into specifics but the bigger worry with this window would be too much pressing S of the PV, too cold, and congrats Southern zones. Plenty of minor chances ahead, but I do like what we are seeing wrt pattern progression around Jan 27-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Kicker! Yeah we gotta toss the GFS solution out...I mean aside from the fact the model has been absolutely terrible...it doesn't have a ton of support on modeling nor with how things have gone with this kind of a wave this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 @WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Euro definitely trends the shortwave west early, but there’s no space for it to turn neutral/negative because of that northern stream kicker in the upper Midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: @WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. Yeah if you post a weenie on someone not buying a threat working out and then the threat literally doesn't work out...there oughta be an emoji just for that, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro definitely trends the shortwave west early, but there’s no space for it to turn neutral/negative because of that northern stream kicker in the upper Midwest And that would be more in keeping with the seasonal trend thus far (unfortunately). But we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah if you post a weenie on someone not buying a threat working out and then the threat literally doesn't work out...there oughta be an emoji just for that, lol Damn right haha. Randy has a suggestion box around here somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol): Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GEPS around the period above has up top ridging flexing and pressing on the tpv. I can live with a WAR here as the epo is still firing and if you advance this panel, an aleutian low is building. Really like 27-29 and much of what follows tbh. And those around a while know I dont honk LR stuff very often. Nothing discrete yet but our best window by far approaching imho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol): Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol): Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gefs impressive thru 324hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol): Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs impressive thru 324hrs Dont have latest eps, but really like what it was hinting at 0z for after the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs impressive thru 324hrs That’s a crazy 24hr qpf mean for that for out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough. 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field. I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor. So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture. There is a panic thread for a reason, no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 25 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to get to a nino I am declaring winter over today....again What's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WesternFringe said: I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor. So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture. There is a panic thread for a reason, no? There's a reason why soap operas remain so popular...daytime drama! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. I'll give you my 3" any day, all you have to do is ask me to share. I still love you regardless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor. So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture. There is a panic thread for a reason, no? There's a big difference between seeing a 1-3" of digital snow on those runs at different dates than hoping for a big coastal/significant event. That's not just semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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