January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[EHoffman]

10 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

As a mostly lurker from WrightWeather (was that it?) to Eastern to here, I just assumed Ji was like the Dread Pirate Roberts. He's not the REAL Ji. The REAL Ji is retired somewhere with a lot of snow. Perhaps Tahoe. But he picked a new "Ji" to replace him who picked a new Ji to replace him. 

Yeah retired to Western Loudoun Co more like.

 

And WrightWeather what a pull, I remember that site but I never was active on it.  I started in the early days of Eastern.

[stormtracker]

Yes NAM and all that jazz, but it looked pretty good and more Euro like than 18z NAM like

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 12K NAM at range compared to EURO AI

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

can we also do a contest for the weekends storm!

[Ji]

Yes NAM and all that jazz, but it looked pretty good and more Euro like than 18z NAM like

Let’s stretch that thing to Montana!

[Nomz]

Icon first to the plate, right?

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Let’s stretch that thing to Montana!

I do kind of like the look of the NAM at range 

[Ji]

It’s wild that just started tracking a hecs and are in Nam range already lol

What’s this snowstorm Nam is giving us Friday?

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It’s wild that just started tracking a hecs and are in Nam range already lol

What’s this snowstorm Nam is giving us Friday?

Yeah, nam dropping Friday morning rush hour snow

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s wild that just started tracking a hecs and are in Nam range already lol

What’s this snowstorm Nam is giving us Friday?

The storm isn't necessarily in NAM range, but all the features that will tell us whether it goes OTS or up the coast will be in place by then, like you said.

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s wild that just started tracking a hecs and are in Nam range already lol

What’s this snowstorm Nam is giving us Friday?

Looks like a really weak clipper that barely makes it over the mountains. Other models have it, but almost none of them have any appreciable precip on the lee side of the mountains.

[mattie g]

I love that we just finished a storm yesterday and the next opportunity is close enough that we’ve got NAM analysis on it.

[konksw]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, nam dropping Friday morning rush hour snow

2016 redux. 

[mattie g]

When are we getting recon data for the shortwave in the Pacific? Once that’s ingested into the modeling dataset, it’s going to make alllll the difference…

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

When are we getting recon data for the shortwave in the Pacific? Once that’s ingested into the modeling dataset, it’s going to make alllll the difference…

Bf is gonna do a special 6z umbrella launch for the 6z runs.

[stormtracker]

ICON is laughably terrible btw

[Cobalt]

Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON is laughably terrible btw

It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON is laughably terrible btw

It forgot everything it learned earlier

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

When are we getting recon data for the shortwave in the Pacific? Once that’s ingested into the modeling dataset, it’s going to make alllll the difference…

Well there are two main pieces. First one is the northern stream wave currently over baffin bay, this one is supposed to retrograde to the hudson bay (thanks to the GL block) and do a loop-a-loop there before it swings down into the conus. 

The southern piece is now in the midst of a fast pac jet just west of the aleutians. It’ll become a new GOA low, but a piece of it will break off, enter the conus tomorrow or Wednesday, and become the southern stream s/w that eventually phases with the northern piece. 

Clear as mud? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Cobalt said:

It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart. 

Like the 18z GFS looked improved early on and then crapped the bed for no reason, lol

[Random Chaos]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

When are we getting recon data for the shortwave in the Pacific? Once that’s ingested into the modeling dataset, it’s going to make alllll the difference…

They are flying today:

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 15WSE IOP15
       C. 26/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 130.0W, 50.0N 130.0W, 
          AND 50.0N 150.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 03WSC IOP15
       C. 26/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 40.0N 175.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 20.0N 150.0W, 
          AND 20.0N 175.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z

And tomorrow:

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 16WSE IOP16
       C. 27/1700Z   (CORRECTED)
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. AF309 03WSC IOP16
       C. 27/1845Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          40.0N 165.0W, 40.0N 145.0W, 20.0N 145.0W, AND 20.0N 165.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

 

[mattie g]

(I was actually kidding, but thanks anyways)

[Nomz]

Yeah, ICON ends up much more positively tilted than say 18z AIFS, resulting in weaker cyclogenesis and less northward motion.

[NorthArlington101]

Looks like a really weak clipper that barely makes it over the mountains. Other models have it, but almost none of them have any appreciable precip on the lee side of the mountains.

ICON has it too, funny enough

[WeatherGeek2025]

just pay attention to euro ai that's the model that will get this right

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Like the 18z GFS looked improved early on and then crapped the bed for no reason, lol

This is one of the stranger setups in recent years. Hard to figure out what's driving it and what its sensitive to.

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

They are flying today:

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 15WSE IOP15
       C. 26/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 130.0W, 50.0N 130.0W, 
          AND 50.0N 150.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 03WSC IOP15
       C. 26/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 40.0N 175.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 20.0N 150.0W, 
          AND 20.0N 175.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z

And tomorrow:

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 16WSE IOP16
       C. 27/1700Z   (CORRECTED)
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. AF309 03WSC IOP16
       C. 27/1845Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          40.0N 165.0W, 40.0N 145.0W, 20.0N 145.0W, AND 20.0N 165.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

 

Well well.

Get ready for the “model reshuffle” tomorrow.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well well.

Get ready for the “model reshuffle” tomorrow.

When tomorrow will the information from the first set of flights be ingested into the models?

[bncho]

Our favorite JV model is running.