January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Isn’t this the “ai has been deadly range”?  5 ish days?

Yes 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

6z euro... FOOOLKS

That's stormtracker's job to say FOLKS, he must be exhausted from tracking the last storm. That's the word for the 6z Euro!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Terpeast said:

That's stormtracker's job to say FOLKS, he must be exhausted from tracking the last storm. That's the word for the 6z Euro!

He needs to wake up and post this avatar with bulging eyes lol. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO looks like a blizzard....and not done yet!!!!!

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

Well shit. lol 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO looks like a blizzard....

And it wasn’t even done yet 

[Rnt1969]

Yeah I think it had another panel or two to go still


.

[csnavywx]

Really cool triple phaser.

However, it's a triple phaser. Powerful but delicate setup, so your expectations should be very guarded as there's quite a bit of dprog/dt even 3 days out right now. Here's a quick chart to help you manage your expectations should guidance continue to show it working out:

 

[87storms]

7 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

Hey, if you think getting a p-type changeover right by a couple hours over another model is more important than being so bad you got literally every other part of the storm comically wrong - including the total precip off by a genuinely hilarious amount, then sure, dry hump that NAM all day. That is absolutely your prerogative. Doesn’t make any sense, really, but you can obviously think whatever you want. 
 

But if you try and gaslight others about how great the NAM was, you should probably continue to expect to get laughed at. 

You’re doing too much. If you can’t read thru my obvious humor (I said in a previous reply that I was joking) when I said, “nam is the new sheriff in town”, that’s a you problem, not a me problem. But while we’re on the topic…I don’t get paid to forecast, but there’s Mets on here who do and who clearly emphasize the fact that some models are better than others at certain things. In data science, it’s the study of a model’s bias vs variance. It’s well known that some of the nam’s primary skill is in identifying thermal issues and mesoscale banding (not to a pinpoint location, but that it might occur), both extremely important (especially to people who have to work in this stuff and not just enjoy it from the comfort of their homes) when trying to forecast warm air intrusions when temps are in the teens. There’s no gaslighting here, that’s an actual fact, something anyone can do a quick search on. Anyhow, this thread isn’t for this type of discussion, so I’m cutting it off here.

[Thewiledcard]

[snowfan]

I’ll hit on temps while y’all cover the storm chances. Last nights OZ GFS and Euro get BWI slightly above freezing 1-2 days next week through the end of their respective runs on 2/10 and 2/11. For these parts, that is a strong period of extended cold. 6Z GFS is the same. Here’s the GFS text output for BWI this week. Cold. 
 

 

[TSSN+]

If euro ai shows this a few more runs, hard to ignore it since it’s been so deadly. 

[Heisy]

Those low heights at the core of this have to be a record for southern mid Atlantic, wild. 5-6 days out. A lot can go right or wrong, it’s a very tactile setup, not many events progress like the H5 of this. As posters on our discord mentioned, Blizzard of 66’, March 2001 are similar type events where the west side of a tpv dropped south and created a coastal. This is happening in primo winter time so… still, all options on the table at this range.




.

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

If euro ai shows this a few more runs, hard to ignore it since it’s been so deadly. 

Additionally other models, including the GFS, have been signaling just not consistently. Could have legs. I am so tire... But in it to win it

[TSSN+]

Mention from nws state college 

KEY MESSAGE 2: Potential East Coastal Storm Threat this weekend

There is a growing guidance signal for the development of a
potentially impactful weekend coastal storm along the Eastern
Seaboard. We will continue to monitor given risk of snow and
wind impacts.

 

[Heisy]

EPS


.

[LeesburgWx]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

Holy MF

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS


.

Looks snowy 

[csnavywx]

The EC-AIFS *was* really good with the last system from this distance (it had locked into a large mix zone and virtually nailed all of the major features by this point), but I would say that the initial interaction is more delicate on this one has a tighter timing window. Prob need to be sub-100hr for equivalent. Would really like to see the AIGFS come on board.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The EC-AIFS *was* really good with the last system from this distance (it had locked into a large mix zone and virtually nailed all of the major features by this point), but I would say that the initial interaction is more delicate on this one has a tighter timing window. Prob need to be sub-100hr for equivalent. Would really like to see the AIGFS come on board.

Ai gfs was just a clueless as the op till like day 3ish. We need to get into Nam range lol 

[87storms]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Those low heights at the core of this have to be a record for southern mid Atlantic, wild. 5-6 days out. A lot can go right or wrong, it’s a very tactile setup, not many events progress like the H5 of this. As posters on our discord mentioned, Blizzard of 66’, March 2001 are similar type events where the west side of a tpv dropped south and created a coastal. This is happening in primo winter time so… still, all options on the table at this range.




.

Bombogenesis, but I don’t trust it until the nam shows it. Jk

[TSSN+]

Gfs considering it was a whiff at this range for the recent storm, I’d say it’s getting there 

[aldie 22]

Most importantly what does apple weather say?

[Ji]

Most importantly what does apple weather say?

69-97 inches

[weathercoins]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Most importantly what does apple weather say?

As of this morning it says snow with 7-8” on Saturday and more on Sunday in DC.  I know this because I woke up to a text from someone this morning asking about this coming weekend’s storm.  

[csnavywx]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ai gfs was just a clueless as the op till like day 3ish. We need to get into Nam range lol 

Eh. It did pretty well. Took an extra 12-24hr to snap in, but had the right general idea not long after. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like the trough/sw is backing west, eliminating some OTS possibilities. But we'll just have to see how far west it backs until they hone into something that's close to a solution. The storm yesterday - the NS wave and the phase kept backing west for days, and for a couple days it was at the sweet spot for us, and then it still kept backing west.

I was about to post that the ridge axis out west suggests this would be a coast scraper ( @CAPE always gets a Nina Rehobeth beach storm). But these last couple runs have been inching that back giving this shortwave JUST enough room. 

[Ji]

Could this back too far west and become an app runner lol? What are all the different ways it could screw us?

[csnavywx]

Continuing off of @Terpeast's trend GIF from yesterday: