January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

What a great storm. Looked like nothing 5 days out, and just kept inching north until we were in the max stripe

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Yeah I loved that storm. Just snowed steady and moderately all day with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7" or so here. Pretty sure Lewes had 9-10".

[Ji]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I loved that storm. Just snowed steady and moderately all day with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7" or so here. Pretty sure Lewes had 9-10".

that brought our drought of 40 plus days of no snow that winter

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro just swings the MJO through Phases 7, 8, 2, 1 with a tanking -AO, marginal NAO, +PNA, and -EPO. It's like the stars are trying to align.

[Eskimo Joe]

Folks. . .

 

 

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks. . .

 

 

Almost chips pushing time

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

that brought our drought of 40 plus days of no snow that winter

Yes it ended your perpetual meltdowns lol

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Almost chips pushing time

12z Thursday, 1/22

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks. . .

 

 

Well if Jake says 

[dallen7908]

I wonder how dispersive the members of the AIFS are? Crazy mean. 

[AlexD1990]

Yeah I loved that storm. Just snowed steady and moderately all day with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7" or so here. Pretty sure Lewes had 9-10".

Hard to remember these days, I was 20..

God that's sad

But what I do remember is the cold powder nature of the snow, you could clear it with a broom

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[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

You have a snow map for that? What was the northern cutoff

I have a summary for that event from Mount Holly that has all the snowfall reports. Cut off was somewhere in southern PA. Phil International Airport had 2.1".

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks. . .

 

 

lol i posted about the upcoming potential on twitter about an hour ago and 30 minutes ago that guy followed me

[HighStakes]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...5" back in Linthicum and maybe an inch up here.

I measured a bit under 4 here in Manchester. Wasn't expecting more than a coating to an inch as late as the first flakes. Manchester was the extreme northern edge of the decent snows. I live approximately 3 miles from PA line and it tapered to around 2 inches there so I would concur that Hanover was 1-2 at best.

Oddly though was Westminster that had a good 6 inches. Must have maxed out on the northern band.

[dallen7908]

 l love digital snow! 

[Terpeast]

Just checked - AIFS op has been beating all other op models based on 6-10 day verification scores at 500mb over the past 3 months.

Let that sink in. 

Today’s 12z run:

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just checked - AIFS op has been beating all other op models based on 6-10 day verification scores at 500mb over the past 3 months.

Let that sink in. 

Today’s 12z run:

In AI we trust! (with the weather modeling)

[Scraff]

How’s everyone feeling this afternoon?  It’s going to snow peeps! I feel pretty confident in that. I’d even put down money in Vegas on it. Except, of course, I don’t gamble. I’d rather spend $’s on pre-gaming HH 18z GooFus runs at Sapwood instead. . 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have a summary for that event from Mount Holly that has all the snowfall reports. Cut off was somewhere in southern PA. Phil International Airport had 2.1".

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/January302010.pdf

[Terpeast]

Here’s AIFS ensembles (which has been cleaning up in verification).

MSLP mean is slightly south of the op aifs low position, by maybe 50 miles. But better clustering to the NW of the mean position

[AlexD1990]

 l love digital snow! 

20 looks like a Washington-Jefferson blizzard redux...yes please

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[benjammin]

I'll have a number 20 please.

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[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, benjammin said:

I'll have a number 20 please.

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I'd prefer #1.

[aldie 22]

32 and 33 probably 

[CAPE]

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

i wonder what happened a week later... 

[BlizzardNole]

52 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

What a great storm [Jan. 30, 2010]. Looked like nothing 5 days out, and just kept inching north until we were in the max stripe

I drove to my parents' place in Calvert as they were expecting 8-10 while Germantown was looking at an inch or two.  They got 8 and Germantown got 7 LOL

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I measured a bit under 4 here in Manchester. Wasn't expecting more than a coating to an inch as late as the first flakes. Manchester was the extreme northern edge of the decent snows. I live approximately 3 miles from PA line and it tapered to around 2 inches there so I would concur that Hanover was 1-2 at best.

Oddly though was Westminster that had a good 6 inches. Must have maxed out on the northern band.

I remember discussions that your area was under 700mb lift normally found on the northern edge of precip shield iirc correctly.

[WxUSAF]

Jan 30, 2010 was on the CIPS analog list @wxmvpete showed earlier 

[mitchnick]

We had a pretty strong stj in 09/10 bully it's way north. Don't have that now unfortunately. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

i wonder what happened a week later... 

Your mother finally changed your diaper?