January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

You’ve got to be kidding

Dry hole right thru Central md lol unreal!

[Ji]

There are no signs of any major storms. Just a bunch of broken 1-3 2-4 stuff

The gfs ai should be trashed

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

You’ve got to be kidding

Not helping yourself, bro. Just don't look at it, lol

[Ji]

Not helping yourself, bro. Just don't look at it, lol

I am getting so incredibly frustrated. Heart of winter and seeing digital blue miss is for 360 hours of frames

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

What a shitty ass model the GFS is. Terpeast said the ensembles are the way to go past D5. Let's listen to him.

Everybody who isnt 12 or Ji knows this.

[Ji]

Everybody who isnt 12 or Ji knows this.

The gfs ensembles are equally trash. The whole suite should be aborted

[Jebman]

Things will get better. Mid Atlantic is way overdue for a big snow over the entire sub.

You guys have been 'paying the piper' for years and years. That lazy sadistic son of a bytch is bloated and its high time he gave some up, in the form of a wild crazy March 1993-magnitude blizzard over the Mid Atlantic.

[Ji]

Everybody who isnt 12 or Ji knows this.

Here is your Nino look

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is your Nino look

Dude it’s a holiday weekend please go out to WV and hike in the snow

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Dude it’s a holiday weekend please go out to WV and hike in the snow

Another good place is the Lake Effect Snow Belts. Watertown's getting Janu-Buried in 4 feet of fresh snow!

[TowsonWeather]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

What a shitty ass model the GFS is. Terpeast said the ensembles are the way to go past D5. Let's listen to him.

Prior to this you were not aware that ensembles were dramatically more valuable than OP runs 8-10 days out?

Bruh.

WAY too many posters in this thread - many of whom SHOULD know better - acting shocked and despairing about variable OP outcomes over a week away. Come on, folks. 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Prior to this you were not aware that ensembles were dramatically more valuable than OP runs 8-10 days out?

Bruh.

WAY too many posters in this thread - many of whom SHOULD know better - acting shocked and despairing about variable OP outcomes over a week away. Come on, folks. 

of course prior to this i knew that ensembles were better than ops at d5+. but half the time people don't give a shit about what i say, so if i introduce a red tagger maybe they'll listen? idk man, 

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Prior to this you were not aware that ensembles were dramatically more valuable than OP runs 8-10 days out?

Bruh.

WAY too many posters in this thread - many of whom SHOULD know better - acting shocked and despairing about variable OP outcomes over a week away. Come on, folks. 

    

      Seriously.   I'm baffled by he expectation that we should lock in a solution at 240 hours and have every consecutive deterministic cycle not waiver in the slightest.     

[Amped]

Ecmwf almost gets the entire country precip free on friday.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

Ecmwf almost gets the entire country precip free on friday.

Precip "free"? I'm assuming that was a typo, lol

[Amped]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Precip "free"? I'm assuming that was a typo, lol

It's close some lake effect snow and a couple of sprinkles over Florida. 

[pazzo83]

we all get to have drought!

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, GreyHat said:

The truth will set you free. You like your fantasy stuff by hugging model runs. You probably still believe in the tooth fairy.  

This is my territory 

[Ji]

EPS snowfall went wild again

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Huge CAD signature next weekend.. some models are wet around here or just before

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Huge CAD signature next weekend.. some models are wet around here or just before

Seems to me we probably have just 1 shot at a big storm before the cold dump. Gunna' stink if we fail with it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seems to me we probably have just 1 shot at a big storm before the cold dump. Gunna' stink if we fail with it.

6z GFS has Jan 24-25 storm.. 6" for DC. 1037mb High to the north.

[Ji]

6z GFS has Jan 24-25 storm.. 6" for DC. 1037mb High to the north.

Yea that’s not going to work for me. I’ll take my chances with the euro 1 inch qpf event

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS...for upcoming weekend.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea that’s not going to work for me. I’ll take my chances with the euro 1 inch qpf event

We both know the 6Z GFS is closer to reality..... the snow hole  is there.....

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We both know the 6Z GFS is closer to reality..... the snow hole  is there.....

Meh...snow hole over mby too. 3" 

[Chris78]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seems to me we probably have just 1 shot at a big storm before the cold dump. Gunna' stink if we fail with it.

After I looked at the 00z euro and 6z gfs I thought the same thing. 

Hopefully we can cash in. 

If not we're waiting till the cold relaxes, which probably puts us into the beginning of February lol.

 

[GreyHat]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS...for upcoming weekend.

Will see come Thursday & Friday 

[mitchnick]

Undoubtedly, the best 24hr ensemble forecast period of the year on the 6z Gefs.

EDIT: I should add that this is 180 hours, so you can't expect a big number like 6"+. Those won't come until we're closer to the threat.

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

EPS snowfall went wild again

Does the EPS like any other windows or is it mostly from the 1/25-27 period?