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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

snowfan

By snowfan,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker
stormtracker

Shut the fuck up

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. 

high risk
high risk

THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that a

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

image.thumb.png.fdba1e1e529b35d8e4f438e51ec1ca17.png

differences at H5 for our timeframe. Not horrifically far apart but obviously not the same. I'll let someone smarter take it from here

Euro has a decent vort max over Minnesota, the GFS does not. Seems to interfere with the coastal low.

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Euro looks like a step in the wrong direction. Tilt looks worse. Energy over the north central is interfering, and not ideal wave spacing. 

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

GFS just seems off its game lately. Worse than usual. Not just with this Thursday storm, but I've been tracking snow in other areas of country and its just horribly bad even in the short range. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

I dont generally post about LR windows often. Was never a huge fan of the 24th/25th. As I noted to Cape, the pattern at that time points to the boundary to our North. The wave that slides east at that time helps drag the boundary back south of us in addition to better ridging up top pressing the pv south. The best chance that I have circled on the calendar, and that ensembles are starting to warm up to, is Jan 27-29. Too far out to get into specifics but the bigger worry with this window would be too much pressing S of the PV, too cold, and congrats Southern zones. Plenty of minor chances ahead, but I do like what we are seeing wrt pattern progression  around Jan 27-29.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

@WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. 

Yeah if you post a weenie on someone not buying a threat working out and then the threat literally doesn't work out...there oughta be an emoji just for that, lol

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely trends the shortwave west early, but there’s no space for it to turn neutral/negative because of that northern stream kicker in the upper Midwest 

And that would be more in keeping with the seasonal trend thus far (unfortunately). But we shall see...

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. 

Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol):

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

GEPS around the period above has up top ridging flexing and pressing on the tpv. I can live with a WAR here as the epo is still firing and if you advance this panel, an aleutian low is building. Really like 27-29 and much of what follows tbh. And those around a while know I dont honk LR stuff very often. Nothing discrete yet but our best window by far approaching imho

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_63.png

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol):

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. 

Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field. 

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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol):

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol):

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol

 

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough. 

 

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. 

Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field. 

I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor.  So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture.  

There is a panic thread for a reason, no?

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
Just now, WesternFringe said:

 

 

I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor.  So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture.  

There is a panic thread for a reason, no?

There's a reason why soap operas remain so popular...daytime drama! Lol

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all. 

I'll give you my 3" any day, all you have to do is ask me to share. I still love you regardless. 

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

 

 

I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor.  So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture.  

There is a panic thread for a reason, no?

There's a big difference between seeing a 1-3" of digital snow on those runs at different dates than hoping for a big coastal/significant event. That's not just semantics. 

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