January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.

[Chris78]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

for what? Dry and cold?

How's February/March looking? 

[87storms]

So next week is really gonna be several days below freezing without any snow, isn’t it?
 

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How's February/March looking? 

I might have to update my rockin' post already.   

[DDweatherman]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.

lol do yourself a favor and go spend time doing something else rather than chasing non existent storms and feet of pattern. 

[bncho]

Now THAT is a cold and dry pattern.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

Now THAT is a cold and dry pattern.

That's a shame honestly. If the trough axis was focus over the Ohio Valley, we'd have the door open for disturbances to shoot up the coast. At least it's cold. There's nothing worse than 55 and sunny in winter.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a shame honestly. If the trough axis was focus over the Ohio Valley, we'd have the door open for disturbances to shoot up the coast. At least it's cold. There's nothing worse than 55 and sunny in winter.

Nah if it’s not snowing it can be warm 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Looks like rain here Felton Delaware and snow showers by Eagles Mere. 

 

Get out 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah if it’s not snowing it can be warm 

100% Agree. Bone chilling cold with no snow sucks.

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Get out 

Still to far out and will likely change. 

Snow showers this weekend for us here Felton disappeared as the system gets pushed OTS.

Kick the can all the way to winter 2026-2027. Lol

[Ji]

Get out 

Get this guy out of here

[NorthArlington101]

Only 240-300 hours out... what could possibly go wrong?

[Ji]

Only 240-300 hours out... what could possibly go wrong?

Only a cutter on the 23rd and suppressed on the 27th

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only 240-300 hours out... what could possibly go wrong?

As many reasons as there are ensemble members, and then some.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, 18z Nam gives the combined metro areas a coating to at most an inch tomorrow night, and the Icon refuses to give up on the Cape storm for those N and W, with far NW favored.

[Solution Man]

Cape storm trying 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, 18z Nam gives the combined metro areas a coating to at most an inch tomorrow night, and the Icon refuses to give up on the Cape storm for those N and W, with far NW favored.

Not a bad look upstairs. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

ill be danged....we actually went up in snowfall from 00z to 12z after all

See? You don't know how to interpret ensemble guidance. Stick to the op runs and go from happy to hissy fit every other run.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not a bad look upstairs. 

Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.

[TSSN+]

Just now, CAPE said:

Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.

I mean ens seem to like some chances maybe we will get it to go off here soon. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.

You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. 
OR
The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.

[CAPE]

The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. 
OR
The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.

Cmc has it at 12z 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. 
OR
The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.

Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.

Diffrent look upstairs on the GFS so far.  Prob won't amount to much tho

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Diffrent look upstairs on the GFS so far.  Prob won't amount to much tho

Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.

Well vs 12, moisture on the coast now wehre there was none.  But it's too far east

[stormtracker]

Yeah, too far east.  Just some interesting changes