January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

“Cape” storm is capped 

Its pure suck. Prominent low is over the GLs. Coastal low will be too far north.

[SnowenOutThere]

Cape storm is a painful watch as the shortwaves just destructively interfere with each other and ruin the setup. Luckily I don't think it would've taken much to change that into a hit.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks kinda like it should snow on us based on the gfs progression.   

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its pure suck. Prominent low is over the GLs. Coastal low will be too far north.

At least it’s 10 degrees and windy… 

[bncho]

Late-Jan into early-Feb could have more of a Nino response with MJO 8, -AO, and those WWBs. Winter isn’t over yet IMO.

[BristowWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Way off the coast. NE get screwed too lol.

That said.  It’s not the final chapter.  We can do this.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cape storm is a painful watch as the shortwaves just destructively interfere with each other and ruin the setup. Luckily I don't think it would've taken much to change that into a hit.

Yeah but if this is yet another messy interaction thing then that doesn't seem to be a battle we wanna fight again...

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its pure suck. Prominent low is over the GLs. Coastal low will be too far north.

Way off the coast. NE gets screwed too.

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Late-Jan into early-Feb could have more of a Nino response with MJO 8, -AO, and those WWBs. Winter isn’t over yet IMO.

this is becoming a "hope we get one storm" winter.

Hopefully its a good one

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Late-Jan into early-Feb could have more of a Nino response with MJO 8, -AO, and those WWBs. Winter isn’t over yet IMO.

I’d rather it be over and get moving towards next winter when we may have a actual chance. 

[Weather Will]

People can keep their heads in the sand but the GEFS and EPS ensembles were never showing much for late week.  Ignore them at your own risk.  I learned this the hard way too....

[Scraff]

Oh I can’t wait to see the Euro! The same model that was playing catch up to the GooFus?? If that’s truly the case, we likely are watching cold dry wispy cirrus clouds floating by at this rate. 
 

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

People can keep their heads in the sand but the GEFS and EPS ensembles were never showing much for late week.  Ignore them at your own risk.  I learned this the hard way too....

Doesn’t even snow here when they do show something. lol 

[CAPE]

Been sippin bourbon for hours. Replied to the wrong post lol.

But yeah, still time for changes with my storm(lol) 

On to the 25th!

[Scraff]

Just now, CAPE said:

Been sippin bourbon for hours. Replied to the wrong post lol.

But yeah, still time for changes with my storm(lol) 

On to the 25th!

25th of January—2027. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

People can keep their heads in the sand but the GEFS and EPS ensembles were never showing much for late week.  Ignore them at your own risk.  I learned this the hard way too....

There were some runs that had a decent signal. But not really consistent.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Doesn’t even snow here when they do show something. lol 

Exactly. Last year there was multiple times they were lit up and it meant nothing 

[Imgoinhungry]

Gfs was on its own from the start. Faith in models 5+ days seems a fool's chase. I am guessing we will be fooled again soon. I am not mad at the models, I am mad for believing they may be correct. 

I am mad at the models! The amount of digital snow they show for mid Atlantic that bust… something needs to be tweaked.


.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

I am mad at the models! The amount of digital snow they show for mid Atlantic that bust… something needs to be tweaked.


.

Really wish they would stop running the operational models past 120 to be honest. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d rather it be over and get moving towards next winter when we may have a actual chance. 

Would agree that 2026-27 looks promising. To maximize our chances we would need to achieve a mod-strong Modoki Nino or a weak-mod east based Nino (i don’t think we’ll get a west based Nino). Would say that if either of these outcomes occur the PDO should be at least neutral, further improving our chances. 
 

However, that is a season that needs to be a blockbuster. If we don’t achieve 25-40”+ then I’m not sure how the Mid-Atlantic scores.

[ravensrule]

I have seen less complaining at a Mah Jongg game. JFC. 

[winter_warlock]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d rather it be over and get moving towards next winter when we may have a actual chance. 

Didn't we say that last winter? Lol

[ravensrule]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Didn't we say that last winter? Lol

He says that every winter. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Didn't we say that last winter? Lol

No, we knew this winter was going to be a La Niña. 

[SnowenOutThere]

To all the people complaining in here I strongly recommend the panic room thread. Currently we are tracking three different windows, and it is unlikely that all will work out. For now we just gotta wait and see what happens. As for the 16th nobody here should put much stock into whatever solution (snowy or not) until its near gametime, and that said with a setup like it we won't often score so not snowing doesn't mean we need to turn this thread into a 2027 winter discussion! Think back to around a week ago where we we're writing off the pattern till the 20th and beyond! At least now we have something fun to track so before complaining at least try to understand the progression of the storm cause that alone is fun. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@TSSN+

Didn’t you just complain about @Ji complaining & derailing the thread yesterday…?

You are right there with him today, lol!

Maybe take a break?

[SnowenOutThere]

Besides to those who absolutely need a hit of digital blue the GFS has the 23-25th window with a rather fun storm if it can pull north. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

@TSSN+

Didn’t you just complain about @Ji complaining & derailing the thread yesterday…?

You are right there with him today, lol!

Maybe take a break?

Who’s complaining. I just said the truth. Said result of the model run, there is no point of operational models going past 120 and we do better in El Niño than La Niña. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

To all the people complaining in here I strongly recommend the panic room thread. Currently we are tracking three different windows, and it is unlikely that all will work out. For now we just gotta wait and see what happens. As for the 16th nobody here should put much stock into whatever solution (snowy or not) until its near gametime, and that said with a setup like it we won't often score so not snowing doesn't mean we need to turn this thread into a 2027 winter discussion! Think back to around a week ago where we we're writing off the pattern till the 20th and beyond! At least now we have something fun to track! 

I'm gonna play a little semantics here and say talking about 2027 technically is long range discussion and thus on topic 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna play a little semantics here and say talking about 2027 technically is long range discussion 

Agreed, but should've checked the thread name before bringing up semantics: "January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion"