January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need to start seeing a better signal for a snow event on the mean for the 15th. Still pretty weak.

For a complex setup like this won’t start seeing a mean increase till we get closer if the op continues to show it. 

[bncho]

ok Euro is off. all i'm looking for is a step to the GFS.

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

There was a wild one in March 1994 I think lol

Jan 2011 too

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Jan 2011 too

Jan 25-26, 2011. Absolutely wild event. Over 100,000 power outages from 6"-10" of paste in 6 hours under a setting sun.

[psuhoffman]

We haven’t had any HECS level events from this type of progression. Not impossible. I’m sure given enough time it will happen. But a more modest snow event is a more likely outcome if we get snow at all. We’ve had plenty of secs and some MECS level events from this type of setup. 
 

The total fail scenario is of wave 1 amplifies a lot but misses us, most likely would be a late development or north like euro but that prevents wave 2 from having room to amplify. If wave 1 goes nuts we need a hit.  

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 25-26, 2011. Absolutely wild event. Over 100,000 power outages from 6"-10" of paste in 6 hours under a setting sun.

That was an awesome event. Except for being stuck on I70 west between Frederick and Hagerstown for 5 hours. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

Jan 2011 too

That was the first one I thought of. I remember watching the rain hitting the window quickly turning into snow...Commutagedon!  (can't remember exactly what happened in the forecasting that made that sneak up on people)

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We haven’t had any HECS level events from this type of progression. Not impossible. I’m sure given enough time it will happen. But a more modest snow event is a more likely outcome if we get snow at all. We’ve had plenty of secs and some MECS level events from this type of setup. 
 

The total fail scenario is of wave 1 amplifies a lot but misses us, most likely would be a late development or north like euro but that prevents wave 2 from having room to amplify. If wave 1 goes nuts we need a hit.  

That is becoming a question I ask when we see models spit out these kind solutions: Like in court..."Is there precedent?" 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro ai was pretty nice

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro ai was pretty nice

Go on. . . .

[mitchnick]

AI storm 1

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But a more modest snow event is a more likely outcome

Would you say that the ceiling would be about 5”?

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We haven’t had any HECS level events from this type of progression. Not impossible. I’m sure given enough time it will happen. But a more modest snow event is a more likely outcome if we get snow at all. We’ve had plenty of secs and some MECS level events from this type of setup. 
 

The total fail scenario is of wave 1 amplifies a lot but misses us, most likely would be a late development or north like euro but that prevents wave 2 from having room to amplify. If wave 1 goes nuts we need a hit. 

Would just like a clean 4"-6" from the first event.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Go on. . . .

Location dependent. Coast hugger and slow crawl, we all get some deformation banding. Farther N does better. 

[Terpeast]

18z op euro was mostly a skipper. Problem was the 500mb low passed north of us. We can’t have that if we want snow from this event. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

AI storm 1

Surface maps on tt looked so much better. Didnt expect <1" most. Wth.

[Ji]

That was the first one I thought of. I remember watching the rain hitting the window quickly turning into snow...Commutagedon!  (can't remember exactly what happened in the forecasting that made that sneak up on people)

That rained like 10-15 minutes lol

[Ji]

AI storm 1

Where is the rest of it?

[bncho]

18z Euro another step towards the GFS. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Where is the rest of it?

North

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Where is the rest of it?

Something not adding up with those totals unless mixing is an issue.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

18z op euro was mostly a skipper. Problem was the 500mb low passed north of us. We can’t have that if we want snow from this event. 

Fwiw 18z ICON did that too and I wondered about that as a possible outcome. And we could say GFS kinda came north with the low passage too, right?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Something not adding up with those totals unless mixing is an issue.

That map was 10:1, so...

[bncho]

18z Euro vs 12z Euro down below. IMO the 18z Euro was better as the wave dug a little bit more, that's why it was a step towards the GFS.

[Ralph Wiggum]

So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?

[bncho]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?

I think the general consensus around here is that the AI model can't tell the difference between rain or snow I think

[mitchnick]

Storm 2 similar to 1 on AI. Vort doesn't dig far enough south.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, bncho said:

I think the general consensus around here is that the AI model can't tell the difference between rain or snow I think

Surface is warm on the parent EURO too. I wouldn’t count on a lot of that being snow

[AlexD1990]

What happened then? It's been mentioned a few times but I'm not sure what the premise was for that storm.

Good lord kid you're making me feel old

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Ji]

Something not adding up with those totals unless mixing is an issue.

Weenie talk about ai resolution issues is my guess