January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WEATHER53]

44 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ain’t saying but… that looks familiar…

 

That’s it!!

[Scraff]

Where the hell is JI?! The man lives for getting digitally snow pummeled, and not even a peep? Epic fail. He probably doesn’t even like snow. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Where the hell is JI?! The man lives for getting digitally snow pummeled, and not even a peep? Epic fail. He probably doesn’t even like snow. 

Maybe he saw the digital snow map and fainted lol

[winter_warlock]

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

2016?

Yup!!!!

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How the hell am i the only pixel getting goddamn sleet 

Warm tongue off the Atlantic.

[Weather Will]

More GEFS support for Storm 2. WB 0Z GEFS.

[mitchnick]

Looks like the EuroAI likes the inland route for storm 2.

[bncho]

euro is a miss for jan 15

[Ji]

euro is a miss for jan 15

Geez not even close

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Geez not even close

AH, you show up for the bad stuff

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI is closer for storm 1.

[stormtracker]

wtf is up with these skipping panels on the models lately.  SV is particularly bad with the GFS.  goes from like 210 to 252

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

AH, you show up for the bad stuff

You don't think he wasn't watching?

[stormtracker]

But can already tell, Euro is a whole lot of nothing.  For both.

[bncho]

they call the euro dr. no for a reason

 

[Amped]

Euro keeps the northern stream in the way.

[Ji]

Well another awful night of modeling and time is running out

[winter_warlock]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Well another awful night of modeling and time is running out

Time is running out? Lol we got 6 to 7 days before the 1st one and 200+ hours before no 2.. we got plenty of time 

[mitchnick]

Just like last year, and probably more so, southern Canada continues to get crushed. Thanks La Niña. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well at least we are going into a cold pattern again. 

PNA is changing to positive (it still hasn't been positive a single day this Winter - since Dec 1)

Which is supported by the ENSO subsurface - I have found when warm water makes it east of the dateline, +PNA is more likely to occur. Kelvin waves impact the N. Pacific pattern, my theory. 

I think we'll have some good shots at snowstorm when the new pattern sets in, this early stuff is the thread the needle, trough is still progressive and it's unlikely that we'll get 18 hours of rain, then a blizzard on the backend with how dry the pattern has been. I think later on - last week of January and maybe going into Feb we will have some high probability snowstorm chances

[Ralph Wiggum]

There is practically zero support across any of the 3 major ensembles for the Jan 15 system. Those members that do have a slp south of say 40n swing it way off the coast and harmlessly ots. Pretty safe to say the gfs is an outlier here, but I also think realistically most already knew this, tho we always hold hope for the best. 

[GreyHat]

16 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes the entire I-95 corridor. 

The trough is wide and positive tilting.  Early during the week I miss spoke of gfs run but is showed this system going from NC to out to sea. Unless the trough changes I don't see this coming up the coast. Then again we have this weekend system we're there's 1 - 2 inches of rain for delmarva. Never any cold are when we have precipitation. 

[Ji]

We lost everything

EPS snowfall is back to 0

[GreyHat]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well at least we are going into a cold pattern again. 

PNA is changing to positive (it still hasn't been positive a single day this Winter - since Dec 1)

Which is supported by the ENSO subsurface - I have found when warm water makes it east of the dateline, +PNA is more likely to occur. Kelvin waves impact the N. Pacific pattern, my theory. 

I think we'll have some good shots at snowstorm when the new pattern sets in, this early stuff is the thread the needle, trough is still progressive and it's unlikely that we'll get 18 hours of rain, then a blizzard on the backend with how dry the pattern has been. I think later on - last week of January and maybe going into Feb we will have some high probability snowstorm chances

Depending on your location,  the cold is short lived as in around 5 days or so. Even the extended forecast for Muncy Valley PA. Shows the temps climbing upper 20s and mid 30s around the 22nd.

[WxUSAF]

Gut instinct is that our best reasonable hope for Thursday/Friday is some widespread light snow with the upper level shortwave passage. This is pretty much the euro-ai solution. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gut instinct is that our best reasonable hope for Thursday/Friday is some widespread light snow with the upper level shortwave passage. This is pretty much the euro-ai solution. 

Don't believe the 6z Gfs then? Lol

[Interstate]

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

wtf is up with these skipping panels on the models lately.  SV is particularly bad with the GFS.  goes from like 210 to 252

I don’t know why everyone doesn’t use pivotal weather. It is free and has all the models now. 

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't believe the 6z Gfs then? Lol

I mean, 6z isn’t too far off that idea actually 

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I don’t know why everyone doesn’t use pivotal weather. It is free and has all the models now. 

Agreed. I have their pay version, which adds a number of weenie benefits like Kuchera and close up maps, for $99/yr. At only $8.25/month, you can't beat it imho. Only gripe I have is that their Eps maps are limited to the Conus, but Hemisphere maps are available at Tropical Tidbits for free. 

[Ji]

I don’t know why everyone doesn’t use pivotal weather. It is free and has all the models now. 

Randy gets SV for free and it’s supposed to be faster