January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

ICON fell off this run.  0z starting of fine.  Knew it was gonna be different with how that sw in the south west held together

Maybe that’s a good thing

[Ji]

ICON fell off this run.  0z starting of fine.  Knew it was gonna be different with how that sw in the south west held together

Everytime we are at a 50 50 crossroad it ends up being 100 percent fail

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

The PV will control that spacing. The models want to send in south. If that happens we are in the game. If it doesnt we are done. That is the bottom line. 

There are multiple players. It's always complicated with NS dominance, which prevails in a Nina. The energy riding overtop the western ridge is a separate issue from the TPV lobe. We need more spacing between that western energy and the lead digging shortwave AND we need the TPV to be in a position where it doesnt crush the digging shortwave, yet provides enough confluence to the north to keep a developing surface low tracking to our south...but not too far south. You get the picture.. its never easy unless we have a Modoki Nino with NA blocking. Then its just a come to papa waiting game with shortwaves in the southern stream.

[eduggs]

12z ICON tracked the northern stream shortwave through Wyoming and phased in the ULL early. The 0z is much further east and misses the phase with the ULL. No Gulf low as a result. Also a more positively tilted trof and an Atlantic SLP along the offshore baroclinicity like other guidance. The 12z seemed unlikely since it had no support. But it showed the type of evolution that gives us our best shot at getting a significant coastal snowstorm.

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Everytime we are at a 50 50 crossroad it ends up being 100 percent fail

 

[clskinsfan]

Meso models hinting at some squalls for Sunday morning out here way west of town. Especially the RGEM. But they all show it to an extent. we will see. 

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ICON fell off this run.  0z starting of fine.  Knew it was gonna be different with how that sw in the south west held together

 Well it's the icon  7-8 days out so I'm not gonna jump off a cliff quite yet lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

Everytime we are at a 50 50 crossroad it ends up being 100 percent fail

Yeah I only track snowstorms if we are in a cold airmass with room to spare

[clskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are multiple players. It's always complicated with NS dominance, which prevails in a Nina. The energy riding overtop the western ridge is a separate issue from the TPV lobe. We need more spacing between that western energy and the lead digging shortwave AND we need the TPV to be in a position where it doesnt crush the digging shortwave, yet provides enough confluence to the north to keep a developing surface low tracking to our south...but not too far south. You get the picture.. its never easy unless we have a Modoki Nino with NA blocking. Then its just a come to papa waiting game with shortwaves in the southern stream.

Much more elegant than my analysis. But I do absolutely agree.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Need to break this pattern

[Ji]

Need to break this pattern

Easy call for cansips back in October

[stormtracker]

GFS ain't looking so hot attm

[LP08]

Don’t think we want a closed upper level low over Michigan…slight change lol

[Ji]

GFS ain't looking so hot attm

3 steps forward 19 steps back

[eduggs]

The GFS is not good for next week. But the AI-GFS looks somewhat promising. And it continues a multi-run improving trend.

[Ji]

Disgusting start to the 00z models

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS ain't looking so hot attm

Just too late to catch it. We are really close to big storm for the entire east coast. Way to early to toss yet. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Frustrating to go from a ticking time bomb at 12z across a few deterministic models to a fropa at 0z.  Is what it is.

[stormtracker]

Imagine if that kicker the wave spacing was better

[clskinsfan]

At 144 it is trying to capture and tug it. So close. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imagine if that kicker the wave spacing was better

Nina gonna nina...seems favorable wave spacing is one of the hardest things to get!

[eduggs]

CMC not looking great either through 120hrs. Similar to GFS.

[stormtracker]

3 shortwaves on the map at 180 and not a damn thing will come out of it

[Ji]

At 144 it is trying to capture and tug it. So close. 

The only thing it’s capturing is our time wasted

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

3 shortwaves on the map at 180 and not a damn thing will come out of it

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

The gif that keeps on gifing

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The only thing it’s capturing is our time wasted

You gotta start looking at this like a slot machine man. We win some. We lose a lot more. But when we hit the big one....

[Ji]

You gotta start looking at this like a slot machine man. We win some. We lose a lot more. But when we hit....

We don’t win anything man. Weather… sports? When is the last time you got double digits

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The only thing it’s capturing is our time wasted

Well that part is our fault. We choose what we give time to...and in a setup like this I wouldn't give it much beyond a curious look at the model runs vs. a serious tracking look.

[NorthArlington101]

At least it bombs out over Cape Cod. They deserve it