January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

funky GFS run 

Why we posted a 384hr hour map and expecting anything less. Dear god seek help. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Why we posted a 384hr hour map and expecting anything less. Dear god seek help. 

bc i have the username bncho dude. what do you expect from me?

[mitchnick]

Euro Ai looks like garbage 

[Ji]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro Ai looks like garbage 

it always loooks like garbage

[Ji]

Euro looks interesting if it can get that trough to go neutral/negative

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro Ai looks like garbage 

it's close? Neg tilt would help substantially. Day 9 storm is walking a very fine line with not a lot of cold... gonna take a pretty perfecto outcome

[Ji]

this looks better than 00z at 500. No idea what surface looks like but kicker on the heel

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

this looks better than 00z at 500. No idea what surface looks like but kicker on the heel

No dice - offshore (well - some precip). Really need more to get temps to cooperate.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it's close? Neg tilt would help substantially. Day 9 storm is walking a very fine line with not a lot of cold... gonna take a pretty perfecto outcome

what the heck is he talking about. It took a step in the right direction

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No dice - offshore (well - some precip). Really need more to get temps to cooperate.

thats closer but the temps would cooperate if the system bombed out earlier....

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats closer but the temps would cooperate if the system bombed out earlier....

It always works out when we're rooting for the storm to create it's own cold air

[stormy]

Euro increases Augusta qp from .69" to 1.08" Saturday.

More moderate rates east of cyclogenesis over Tenn./Ky. 

[TSSN+]

I’m booking this IECS 

 

[WxUSAF]

Euro was about to do something D10-11 and then it sheared it to hell 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it’s rare to see shortwaves dig into the gulf, so def something to keep an eye on if it’s legit. Also hopefully that kicker coming along holds off


.

Its always something, thats how we roll. If it ain't a sloppy phase then its a GL lp, or a kicker, or some rogue shortwave diving out of Nunavut that mucks things up. But seriously, one of these will eventually work out. Expect the worst, hope for the best. Expectations in check, patience, and all those other caveats apply.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro was about to do something D10-11 and then it sheared it to hell 

That NW flow is killin' us. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That NW flow is killin' us. 

CPF...but too much -EPO. Always something. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS....next 10 days are nada...

[stormy]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That NW flow is killin' us. 

NW flow is good for Elkins or Oakland.

It usually kills east of mts., winter or summer.

[Weather Will]

I am a true believer that the MJO is the primary driver.  It overwhelms the other indices....it is ruining our January chances this year.

[mitchnick]

There was a small uptick over 0z in ensemble snowfall, albeit meager. It's better than going the other way.

[adelphi_sky]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

I don't think I've ever seen that before. Maybe the models are hallucinating. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I don't think I've ever seen that before. Maybe the models are hallucinating. 

It's just overrunning that unusually further south.

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS....next 10 days are nada...

thats not true...it says 0.3. Thats a dusting

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's just overrunning that unusually further south.

it will correct north about 40 miles before game time. Dont worry

[Terpeast]

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

Isn't 8 to 1 to 2 the perfect progression in our area?  Or is it 7 to 8 to 1?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Isn't 8 to 1 to 2 the perfect progression in our area?  Or is it 7 to 8 to 1?

8-1-2 7 isn’t great 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

Yup. From a WPC met. A glimmer of hope?

 

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

8-1-2 7 isn’t great 

 

Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states?