January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Missed my point.  I know it is not snowing this week....the ensembles beyond 7 days stink and people should not get anxious about it.   If the ensembles light up next week inside 7 days that means we have something to track because inside a week they are worth looking at because they are more accurate as you state above.  

Ok. My bad. It kinda came across differently. You could have articulated that better in your original post.

[mitchnick]

HH Gfs came close around the 15th.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

HH Gfs came close around the 15th.

That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly.

Clearly not a winter cancel run.

Just for the winter is over crew, I'll drop this here

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

HH Gfs came close around the 15th.

Yep. Good track but a 50-50 ridge isnt what we want lol.

I still like that period but we just cant know how all the players will interact to produce the ultimate outcome.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly.

Clearly not a winter cancel run.

From what I’ve heard on the ENSO side February shouldn’t be written off yet.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yep. Good track but a 50-50 ridge isnt what we want lol.

I still like that period but we just cant know how all the players will interact to produce the ultimate outcome.

Maybe that system on the 15th can move into the 50/50 for a followup wave.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

From what I’ve heard on the ENSO side February shouldn’t be written off yet.

Sounds like a hot take we shouldn't ignore 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe that system on the 15th can move into the 50/50 for a followup wave.  

Just an op run a at range. The details will change. At this juncture its nice to see a storm pretty consistently showing up on guidance with the pattern becoming more favorable.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Only posting it because there's not much going on next week or so. But op at range has a CPF showing up and stj getting active. Let's see what the gefs has to say shortly:

[bncho]

GFS almost showed something. I'm not ready to declare winter over just yet.

[Terpeast]

Lets see if there’s gefs support for jan 15th

[Scraff]

The minute the next fantasy HECS shows up, this place will uncancel winter for the 1,323rd time. Yeah. I’ve been keeping tabs since the days of EasternWX.  

[Terpeast]

Classic +PNA on gefs starting jan 12-13. Pattern supports the OP

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Classic +PNA on gefs starting jan 12-13. Pattern supports the OP

I’m back in Frederick after more than 3 weeks in NV. I’m officially craving a violent nor’easter. It’s go time. Tho looks like I’ll have some time prior to the pattern flip to burn calories…which I’m not completely opposed to.

[brooklynwx99]

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

When Brooklyn posts it's good tidings 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Classic +PNA on gefs starting jan 12-13. Pattern supports the OP

Always refreshing when we can start to track the end of an impending, albeit brief, shit the blinds pattern.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

When Brooklyn posts it's good tidings 

Until he mentions 'mint' 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Always refreshing when we can start to track the end of an impending, albeit brief, shit the blinds pattern.

It’s been pretty obvious for a while that the warmup was going to be short lived.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It’s been pretty obvious for a while that the warmup was going to be short lived.

Yeah over the last 10 years we have seen ACTUAL shutout patterns where you roll models foward and see red for days and days...this warmup one is mild but weak with cold air not far away. I'll take this kind of a short-lived "thaw" any day!

[bncho]

Jan 15 on the GEFS looks pretty nice IMO. Strong +PNA with an -EPO trying to form. Some trace of a -NAO. I like how the trough is centered just to the west of us so suppression is less of a risk. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Jan 15 on the GEFS looks pretty nice IMO. Strong +PNA with an -EPO trying to form. Some trace of a -NAO. I like how the trough is centered just to the west of us so suppression is less of a risk. 

I'm seeing a slight negative tilt.

[JenkinsJinkies]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah over the last 10 years we have seen ACTUAL shutout patterns where you roll models foward and see red for days and days...this warmup one is mild but weak with cold air not far away. I'll take this kind of a short-lived "thaw" any day!

It’s even been walked back some. A few runs had us in the 70s.

[CAPE]

H5 on GEFS at the end almost identical to the EPS. Favorable look for cold and waves tracking just to the south along the thermal boundary. That EPO ridge gets significant cold in our nearby source region pretty quickly.

 

[CAPE]

Dammit Mitch!! 

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

Dammit Mitch!! 

I'll delete mine. Your colors are prettier. 

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 on GEFS at the end almost identical on to the EPS. Favorable look for cola and waves tracking just to the south along the thermal boundary. That EPO ridge gets significant cold in our nearby source region pretty quickly.

 

What is "cola"?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 on GEFS at the end almost identical on to the EPS. Favorable look for cola and waves tracking just to the south along the thermal boundary. That EPO ridge gets significant cold in our nearby source region pretty quickly.

 (The rare time this emoji is useful, lol)

Thanks for the ninja @cbmclean 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I'll delete mine. Your colors are prettier. 

I also posted the surface temps.

Amped EPO ridge can get impressive cold in Canada quickly.

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 on GEFS at the end almost identical to the EPS. Favorable look for cold and waves tracking just to the south along the thermal boundary. That EPO ridge gets significant cold in our nearby source region pretty quickly.

 

I like the low heights in the 50/50 region too.