January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Alright guys. HH GFS is about to run. It was what renewed our hopes yesterday. And honestly? Please stop with the cliff jumping. It's kinda ridiculous.

At hour 0, no change from the 12Z at 500mb.  

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

At hour 0, no change from the 12Z at 500mb.  

This is a limp grasp at a shadow.............................

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

This is a limp grasp...

@ravensruleyou agree?

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

This is a limp grasp at a shadow.............................

You've convinced me to open a twitter account so I can make forecasting calls.  

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@ravensruleyou agree?

If it’s Stormy it’s definitely very limp. 

[IronTy]

I keep refreshing hoping for that 500mb ripple showing up in the four corners region to develop but so far, nothing.  

[stormy]

This is 18z model interpretation. Less than .10 ".   Are we talking about ice-fog? 

I wish we had a threat but this seems desperate.  

[WxUSAF]

Euro weeklies were really good allegedly if you're up for grasping those straws

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro weeklies were really good allegedly if you're up for grasping those straws

Oh yeah...great start too! 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512300000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601120000

[CAPE]

Gimmie a big EPO ridge with a respectable NA. This pattern has worked quite well for much of the region in recent winters for bringing the cold and facilitating multiple moderate snow events. Been a persistent look on the extended products for mid to late month and now showing up towards the end of the ens runs.

Latest "weeklies"

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Gimmie a big EPO ridge with a respectable NA. This pattern has worked quite well for much of the region in recent winters for bringing the cold and facilitating multiple moderate snow events. Been a persistent look on the extended products for mid to late month and now showing up towards the end of the ens runs.

Latest "weeklies"

 

This period has the best overall potential if you favor powder events with snow on snow.

Hopefully this becomes reality in a couple weeks.  Maybe we even get a true deep winter feel with both cold and snow. Bring it ! 

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

This period has the best overall potential if you favor powder events with snow on snow.

Hopefully this becomes reality in a couple weeks.  Maybe we even get a true deep winter feel with both cold and snow. Bring it ! 

We are into prime snow climo for that period. Hopefully it's real and continues into Feb, where historically it(whatever it is) likes to snow on us.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We are into prime snow climo for that period. Hopefully it's real and continues into Feb, where historically it(whatever it is) likes to snow on us.

It would be awesome !

I like how all three major ensembles are showing this happening, leading to more confidence going forward. 

[stormtracker]

Human pendulums 

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Human pendulums 

Pretty much everything in nature can be represented by a sine wave, including the mood of snow weenies.

[stormy]

Hopefully , late January and February will mimic climo...

The recent pause in the cause has caused some to become increasingly desperate.

 

[TSSN+]

Arkansas losts its 3” of ice. Disaster. All joking aside that run not as bad with SE ridge. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Arkansas losts its 3” of ice. Disaster. All joking aside that run not as bad with SE ridge. 

Still a goofy ass evolution. Until proven otherwise, probably best to assume that trough doesn’t dig to Mexico City.

[mitchnick]

Yikes at the cold at the end of the Gfs run.

[Scraff]

How’s our January to remember shaping up? I’ve heard good things…

[Ji]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro weeklies were really good allegedly if you're up for grasping those straws

you may not have to wait for the weeklies

[Ji]

ive seen many times where is a snow threat 10 days out...then its gone for a few days and then one random 00z run---it comes back. Not everytime but i would give it 24-48 hours before tossing the idea

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yikes at the cold at the end of the Gfs run.

GFSAI also really cold at the end. Not a great run snow wise but less horrific to look at.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive seen many times where is a snow threat 10 days out...then its gone for a few days and then one random 00z run---it comes back. Not everytime but i would give it 24-48 hours before tossing the idea

Look who's not being grumpy and actually being positive! Character growth!

[CAPE]

Imperfect patterns can produce snowstorms here.

H5 a few days before the Jan 2022(CAPE) storm-

The day before as the storm is approaching-

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFSAI also really cold at the end. Not a great run snow wise but less horrific to look at.

im tired of cold. I want it -1 below normal and way more precip

[WxUSAF]

Aleet aleet…digital blue on 18z euro for this weekend 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Aleet aleet…digital blue on 18z euro for this weekend 

Thank you Dave. How much for Short Pump?. 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Look who's not being grumpy and actually being positive! Character growth!

Nah....alcohol