January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[JKEisMan]

We track

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AIGFS kind of has something too. 

yeah, it's been trending, as has the AIFS, which makes me feel a bit better

CMC is snow showers, which is kinda hilarious. kind of in its own universe with the TPV

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's just no way pt 2

What do you mean pt 2? 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is a fropa. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is really low predictability... you have the NS vort digging and then buckling, you have another wave out west trying to dampen upstream heights, and then you have the issue of how the TPV impacts the trough. what a mess

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What do you mean pt 2? 

i said the same thing last night and I am lowkey shocked that the GFS amped up like that again

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What do you mean pt 2? 

Posted last night when gfs had that  - that was no way part 1 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Let’s get our bowling shoes sanitized and ready.   We need this

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What do you mean pt 2? 

Last run he saw, he said there's no way. He don't believe yet 

[JKEisMan]

Looks like GFS wants to snow, doing it again on 18th

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i said the same thing last night and I am lowkey shocked that the GFS amped up like that again

Ahh so your surprised that it brought back the monster..

[Typhoon Tip]

So ...this is the 170 hour position from two nights ago, oper. GFS, on the left.  On the right is 12z for that same time 36 to 48 hours worth of runs later....  

You can see the morphology in the total handling of each ball in the nut sack of this pattern.  This latter run shows the 2nd wave is in fact less coherent ...schism into a couple of more minoring wave spaces, while also, the 1st wave is more potent, and, further along downs stream.   

 

These are perhaps subtle but are crucial differences nonetheless.  That latter of the two runs is allowing the lead to conserve more in totality and thus is operating more cyclogensis/capable of doing so ..etc.   

This could be the capitulation ( beginning ) toward one of these areas becoming dominant.   Too early to tell... could all be a red herring too 

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is a fropa. 

That model flat out blows. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, and then looking at the next series in the cinema as the run's rolling out, it's definitely the morphology of the 2nd wave that is backing off the negative interference, and allowing the 1st in the series to do it's thing... 

The GFS has chosen.   Ha...let's see if it changes it's mind in the future 

[JKEisMan]

17th-19th would be something - snow from northern Mexico to SNE

[Spanks45]

So much chaos, reminds me of what our 'good' patterns have looked like over the past few years. In the end energy flying all around, but in the end nothing really develops until its well off shore or up into Nova Scotia...hope this time is different

[JKEisMan]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

So much chaos, reminds me of what our 'good' patterns have looked like over the past few years. In the end energy flying all around, but in the end nothing really develops until its well off shore or up into Nova Scotia...hope this time is different

Yeah we pray GFS isn’t on crack

[dendrite]

We still have more of the 12z suite to go, but there’s some really large differences still. Don’t fall in love with any one solution yet.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

17th-19th would be something - snow from northern Mexico to SNE

As has been said, I think if a system can come together, it’ll be one system(the Thursday /Fri one), or the Sunday/Monday one, not both. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When you’re at the bottom of the barrel as you are, It can only go up for you(just a matter of when you catch that break) …so that’s the good news. 

I’m not sure this is necessarily true lol. If we miss that 15-20th period, the final third of the month has hinted at warming up, or at minimum, riding the boundary. It can always get worse lol

[brooklynwx99]

OP is obv on the more amped side of its own ensemble (though they're more or less different models at this point after the GFS got upgraded)

the GEFS itself is more amped compared to its 06z run

[Spanks45]

If the GFS somehow found a nut this one time, the next 10 days worth of snowfall would beat any of the last 4 season's snowfall totals....perspective I guess at this point

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure this is necessarily true lol. If we miss that 15-20th period, the final third of the month has hinted at warming up, or at minimum, riding the boundary. It can always get worse lol

It can’t get any worse for you…that would be staying the same. You ain’t got shit now, and you’ll have no shit going forward if the next couple systems fail.  So it’s the same.  Wallow in the shit Brett….you at rock bottom bro..it doesn’t get any worse if you want snow. 

[jbenedet]

The 12z GEFS looks much more like the other guidance than the 12z op GFS..

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The 12z GEFS looks much more like the other guidance than the 12z op GFS..

agreed, but this is notable

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, but this is notable

But that looks like the other guidance. Kinda saying the same thing, just differently. 

[jbenedet]

I need to see another model blow up H5 like that over the southeast before I bite.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I need to see another model blow up H5 like that over the southeast before I bite.

i agree with you there. it's possible, but needs more support

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, but this is notable

Way better 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I need to see another model blow up H5 like that over the southeast before I bite.

Oh definitely.