January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

3k is 3 or so here even better

INSGW

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no direct linear forcing ...

the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc.  That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence.  

That's all I'm saying.  And it is true. 

I also did not say that.    I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context;  I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.

I would also have to think too that processes involved in the evolution of this whole system across the southern states and across the East would end up far outweighing any influence of the MJO. I actually can't wait because this very subject is on the agenda in my advanced forecasting class  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

INSGW

I think he’s more excited for 1-3” tonight than the Sunday/Monday storm 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no direct linear forcing ...

the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc.  That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence.  

That's all I'm saying.  And it is true. 

I also did not say that.    I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context;  I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.

I get that...I'm not arguing the semantics of it, all I am saying is that amplification of the MJO in phase 6-7 de-constructively interferes with east coast suppression, which is also true.

[The 4 Seasons]

Alright, here's where we at as of Jan 20th, 2026, season-to-date. Thank you to everyone who sent me reports, they were helpful and i tried to include most of them, some didn't fit however. I will have another update in about a month. This was a good mid-point between accumulating events to get this done.

You can always find them here if they get deleted for space. There is also Tri-State Area and CT zoomed in maps as well.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/seasonal-snowfall/25-26-seasonal-snowfall

Lower Northeast

Southern New England

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think he’s more excited for 1-3” tonight than the Sunday/Monday storm 

Lol I don't know that 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah agree with Tip. We want the initial low stronger and more north so we don’t get LBSW. Even if that secondary forms, the atmosphere is tapped a bit from good baroclinicity so I think that will also limit how far precip expands again. 

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

18z Euro 1-4” of ZR down south. Someone is getting 98 ice down there 

Yikes!  The trees that withstood Helene in the NC/TN mountains would be torn apart if that were to verify.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he’s more excited for 1-3” tonight than the Sunday/Monday storm 

I sense a little Ray jack fetish with him. He likes systems where he’s getting more than anyone else…even if it’s 1-3”. He’s quieter when he’s getting 10” and I95 is pulling 15-20”.

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's do it, this is what dreams are made of. It's what we've been waiting for. 

I PRAY you all get Zero.  

 

I waited 2 1/2 MONTHS at Home for Snow.  I Leave and now THIS?  Fit all.  Hope you ALL get Skunked.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

I sense a little Ray jack fetish with him. He likes systems where he’s getting more than anyone else…even if it’s 1-3”. He’s quieter when he’s getting 10” and I95 is pulling 15-20”.

Nah, IDC about that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

I PRAY you all get Zero.  

 

I waited 2 1/2 MONTHS at Home for Snow.  I Leave and now THIS?  Fit all.  Hope you ALL get Skunked.  

I hope your accordion breaks on stage.

[Prismshine Productions]

24.4" on the season so far on the season... Next couple of weeks could really get me closer to seasonal average (56.5"), hoping to hit 40 at bare minimum

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

I sense a little Ray jack fetish with him. He likes systems where he’s getting more than anyone else…even if it’s 1-3”. He’s quieter when he’s getting 10” and I95 is pulling 15-20”.

Yeah he’ll go “meh” if it shows 6-10” for him while SE is 10-14” but then just go absolutely wild with pages and pages of posts if mesos are showing a little N ORH county jack on a 2” paste event while everyone else is getting nothing or coatings. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I PRAY you all get Zero.  

 

I waited 2 1/2 MONTHS at Home for Snow.  I Leave and now THIS?  Fit all.  Hope you ALL get Skunked.  

Hopefully all the air being drawn in through the bellows of your accordion causes perfect phasing out west and produces a couple feet here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he’ll go “meh” if it shows 6-10” for him while SE is 10-14” but then just go absolutely wild with pages and pages of posts if mesos are showing a little N ORH county jack on a 2” paste event while everyone else is getting nothing or coatings. 

Why should I care about 2" in the ORH hills?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why should I care about 2" in the ORH hills?

We’re talking about ineedsnow

[ineedsnow]

NAM looking pretty amped up

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I sense a little Ray jack fetish with him. He likes systems where he’s getting more than anyone else…even if it’s 1-3”. He’s quieter when he’s getting 10” and I95 is pulling 15-20”.

??

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We’re talking about ineedsnow

 

[Cyclone-68]

32 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Pats in the AFC championship with a snowstorm to track with big potential.. we're back

I think the last time they got this far was also our last significant snowstorm lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

It does ?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

??

 

Meaning he has a similar Jack fetish with you celebrating everyone else getting screwed like he does. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

??

 

What’s confusing? 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol I don't know that 

How’s Reggie look tonight?

[TheSnowman]

I CAN’T LEAVE!!  I have the Busiest Week of the Year with the NAMM Convention through to Sunday!  A Private gig associated with the Games Sunday!  Then a gig Monday!  Then a Major Concert Wednesday.  AND my Parents are getting to the age where they can’t Shovel and you Can’t plow that driveway so I’m always the one to go over and help!

 

 THIS IS A DISASTER if it comes!  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Meaning he has a similar Jack fetish with you celebrating everyone else getting screwed like he does. 

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

What’s confusing? 

Sorry.....I'm trying to do notes at the same time and missed the start of the exchange.

My bad.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

What’s confusing? 

Ray is already thinking about Coke streamers on Cape Ann while he chokes on exhaust so it’s throwing him on tilt. 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind.
 

We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east.

The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding…

This could get a lot warmer.

 

Nuts.

You're noise, not substance. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I PRAY you all get Zero.  

 

I waited 2 1/2 MONTHS at Home for Snow.  I Leave and now THIS?  Fit all.  Hope you ALL get Skunked.  

you got yours