January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It’s a huge jump north and scrapes SNE with advisory snows (with low end warning snows in the coastal areas) while burying DC.

Not a bad place to be 6 days out. That being said, at this point knowing everything we know up to now, I’d rather be back in MD this coming weekend than up here.

Not every big overrunning/Miller A storm shifts north enough. Many do, but some don’t.

I think that logic is weenie fodder when you have a PV just north of the border from NE....."these love to come north"....yea, maybe from DC to Philly. I mean, CT could get something, but I wouldn't expect a MECS. I'm probably shut out up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good luck getting a storm into New England with this cold west to east flow

Op run? Check the AI’s. It’s on its way up 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Op run? Check the AI’s. It’s on its way up 

NNE will have issues but we are in a decent spot.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

NNE will have issues but we are in a decent spot.

That’s my hope as well, but that is some man cold and a brick wall type dome

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That’s my hope as well, but that is some man cold and a brick wall type dome

I remember the blizzard of 96 was frigid and lost a few hours to verga and still got 27 inches. That was extreme but half that would be amazing.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Op run? Check the AI’s. It’s on its way up 

So the op run AI instead? lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The next period for something legit is around 2/1 i think.

Tough to be 10-12 days out from any next potential in mind winter 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NNE will have issues but we are in a decent spot.

 

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That’s my hope as well, but that is some man cold and a brick wall type dome

Too early to say either way. Serious cold, but lots of energy coming up too. Either way it’s gonna be dam cold and wintry with the new cover. CT/RI/SEMA favored currently for something. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tough to be 10-12 days out from any next potential in mind winter 

Day 5 and day 9 hold plenty potential 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember the blizzard of 96 was frigid and lost a few hours to verga and still got 27 inches. That was extreme but half that would be amazing.

That wasn’t supposed to get close to SNE either but she kept on creeping north. Doesn’t mean this will, but it’s a distinct possibility. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tough to be 10-12 days out from any next potential in mind winter 

That period keeps showing up on the models.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The cmc doesn’t look that great to me. I bet that’s a lot of sand on the northern edge. And it also could be under doing the strength of the cold press.

I don’t know, I hate having to rely on certain features to move or come in less impressive.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So the op run AI instead? lol

Ai Ens 

[Chrisrotary12]

27 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from.

It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

Iphone weather app says 12-15” for next Sunday. Can always adjust up if needed. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tough to be 10-12 days out from any next potential in mind winter 

Ok stop now…you thought you wouldn’t getting anything Friday night, and Saturday afternoon you started whining again, and then you jacked.  You never ever learn. This will waffle…let’s see where we are on Thursday? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That wasn’t supposed to get close to SNE either but she kept on creeping north. Doesn’t mean this will, but it’s a distinct possibility. 

Easier pull 30 years ago.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ai Ens 

You should check again.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Iphone weather app says 12-15” for next Sunday. Can always adjust up if needed. 

Ya, it’s the iPhone app(which is the weather channel), that’ll be down to zero by tonight lol. It’s a Joke. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Easier pull 30 years ago.

Nah…not at all. Cold is cold bro. But whatever. There’s Ben a lot since then that have trended north.  They all don’t, but some do. We watch is all. 

[EastonSN+]

Nice bump north on the GEFS w/r/t precip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ai Ens 

I mean, close enough to watch, but certainly needs work...doesn't look to be much room to me.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You should check again.

It’s far from figured out bud. For your area, it’s a much harder lift.  Down here in SNE, we got a shot for sure. We watch is all. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…not at all. Cold is cold bro. But whatever. There’s Ben a lot since then that have trended north.  They all don’t, but some do. We watch is all. 

I'm talking about model skill....not cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think CT-RI-SE MA could get a decent event, but tough sell points north.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s far from figured out bud. For your area, it’s a much harder lift.  Down here in SNE, we got a shot for sure. We watch is all. 

Keep an eye on it and let me know.

[ORH_wxman]

Next weekend is a great setup for Scooter down to @amarshall to get Coke line steamers from frigid onshore flow. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm talking about model skill....not cold.

Ahh ok. But this is kind of comical with what just happened this weekend.  Especially for your area. You were out of it right up to the 11th hour Saturday morning(we all pretty much were) …so that’s my point. 

[amarshall]

Next weekend is a great setup for Scooter down to [mention=2582]amarshall[/mention] to get Coke line steamers from frigid onshore flow. 

.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Keep an eye on it and let me know.

Will do bro. Heading up Wednesday, so I’ll peak here and there. No worries either way. 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That wasn’t supposed to get close to SNE either but she kept on creeping north. Doesn’t mean this will, but it’s a distinct possibility. 

Thinking back, did we have a similar Arctic air mass on top of us? I'm just wondering what it looked like before that storm made its way up into our area