January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty epic never seen highs modeled below zero down here.. there is very strong agreement on an epicly cold and potential very snow 15 days starting Saturday. Regardless of what happens Sunday. 

Coldest temps I’ve ever seen modeled here. Granted it’s total clown range but that is crazy historic cold. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

50-55 last 2 days?? Yikes 

48hrs+ of 38° or above. Wow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Glad you kept the pack. 

Didn’t touch 50 at all but glad you did 4-5 times and got outside to do spring cleanup etc 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

48hrs+ of 38° or above. Wow. 

No 50’s ASOUT. None 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Didn’t touch 50 at all but glad you did 4-5 times and got outside to do spring cleanup etc 

I think 2nd time. But yeah it’s nice.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. 
 

Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting….
 

Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE. 
 

 

 

I have this saved from the Feb 23 shot

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I have this saved from the Feb 23 shot

Very brief, but just enough to kill the fricking peaches

[dendrite]

-50 on MOS for MWN was fun too

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. 
 

Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting….
 

Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE. 
 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I feel like that face lately 

[brooklynwx99]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony in the 1/18 disaster….model guidance today got a lot more interesting for next week and weekend. Some legit hits showing up. 
 

Ensembles have always liked this period so let’s see if they bag a win. 

yup. first, moisture pushing into a cold dome and then a shot at a retrograding block to end the month. can't ask for more at this range

[ORH_wxman]

Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge. 

Wouldn't mind seeing that moving into February. You want to talk about the prospects for a big February, there is the look right there. Ultimately, I'd like to see that ridge axis shifted east a bit and tilted a bit more directly poleward...but this is an ens mean so that detail is a bit minute but something to watch for when we get into OP range

[powderfreak]

50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-50 on MOS for MWN was fun too

Almost as impressive is the next day max of 19F on that MOS lol.  A nice 70 degree rise.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Wouldn't mind seeing that moving into February. You want to talk about the prospects for a big February, there is the look right there. Ultimately, I'd like to see that ridge axis shifted east a bit and tilted a bit more directly poleward...but this is an ens mean so that detail is a bit minute but something to watch for when we get into OP range

I’d be shocked if we went through a large chunk of Feb with an El Niño N PAC pattern but stranger things have happened. 
 

My guess is we revert back to RNA/-EPO pattern as we go into February. That can still be ok but you risk SE ridge getting too stout which happens frequently in Niña Februarys. 

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have this saved from the Feb 23 shot

Nice…that’s even a little more impressive than the clown range Euro prog. I would’ve thought 2023 was a smaller area but it wasn’t (unless it modified a bit before verification). It just moved in and out at lightning speed, lol. 
 

Feb 2016 had decent -30 area at 925 but I don’t recall a monster area. It was kind of localized south of Canadian border once it moved in. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d be shocked if we went through a large chunk of Feb with an El Niño N PAC pattern but stranger things have happened. 
 

My guess is we revert back to RNA/-EPO pattern as we go into February. That can still be ok but you risk SE ridge getting too stout which happens frequently in Niña Februarys. 

Yeah that would probably be a big ask given the Nina state. I guess what we could hope for is a big storm as that pattern developed and then something else as it reverted back...then take our chances with the gradient. 

[ariof]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Coldest temps I’ve ever seen modeled here. Granted it’s total clown range but that is crazy historic cold. 

The record low max for Boston is 2. For the airport it's 6 (1943, 1968). 10 days below 10 since 1936, three of which occurred in 2004.

So yeah, I'm skeptical this verifies.

[WxWatcher007]

Is Kev on bath salts? There’s no front here yet. It’s 47 and sunny outside lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is Kev on bath salts? There’s no front here yet. It’s 47 and sunny outside lol. 

The first front went thru early afternoon but the true arctic boundary is in our doorstep 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, ariof said:

The record low max for Boston is 2. For the airport it's 6 (1943, 1968). 10 days below 10 since 1936, three of which occurred in 2004.

So yeah, I'm skeptical this verifies.

It isn’t verifying..but fun to look at nonetheless. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The first front went thru early afternoon but the true arctic boundary is in our doorstep 

Just being a wiseass. Glad we’re flushing this crap out of here. Just in time for Saturday’s snow. 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice…that’s even a little more impressive than the clown range Euro prog. I would’ve thought 2023 was a smaller area but it wasn’t (unless it modified a bit before verification). It just moved in and out at lightning speed, lol. 
 

Feb 2016 had decent -30 area at 925 but I don’t recall a monster area. It was kind of localized south of Canadian border once it moved in. 

I think the current prog has a bigger/broader area of those extreme anomalies than ‘23 did.  The odds of that verifying though is about the same as a blizzard at that range, no? 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Very brief, but just enough to kill the fricking peaches

They come from a can you know

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They come from a can you know

 

Put there by a man in a factory downtown?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think the current prog has a bigger/broader area of those extreme anomalies than ‘23 did.  The odds of that verifying though is about the same as a blizzard at that range, no? 

Yeah it’s not happening. I don’t even think that 120hr map I posted verified

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. 
 

Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting….
 

Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE. 
 

 

 

Scooter approved, he longs for that stuff with bare ground.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Put there by a man in a factory downtown?

Watching the video now. I totally forgot about the kung fu part.