January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at this event....Sunday night is a toned down version, but it happens...accept and deal.

I still lean in the OTS camp. For now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s snow in most places Sunday night. You’re talking about Saturday I think? You’re a very confused individual. 
Euro has some snow interior NoP.

Seems like east has better shot at accumulating snow per guidance...I think that is what he meant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I still lean in the OTS camp. For now.

Yea, either way, it's not going to be December 5, 1981....I just meant qualitatively speaking...not amounts.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like east has better shot at accumulating snow per guidance...I think that is what he meant.

I have no idea what he means lately. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If Sunday hits it would snow here . Those type of events never snow for ORH and not here . I’m not counting on anyone getting it 

Turn that frown upside down. 4 weeks of cold at least. Definitely opening up the Gulf which was closed in December. Perhaps even tracking 3 storms a week 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, either way, it's not going to be December 5, 1981....I just meant qualitatively speaking...not amounts.

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

Hopefully the tide is turning.  No lack of cold for sure.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west 

At some point that will start happening again....we just don't know when, as Wolfie would say....

[CoastalWx]

I shouldn’t be quick to dismiss Saturday inland. Might be C-1”.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I shouldn’t be quick to dismiss Saturday inland. Might be C-1”.

06z euro was prob 1-2”…esp 495 NW

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s snow in most places Sunday night. You’re talking about Saturday I think? You’re a very confused individual. 
Euro has some snow interior NoP.

I’m referring to if Sunday night comes back. It would get snow back to the river and probably west of it 

[WeatherGeek2025]

to the pros and advanced, i have question... I've been following weather and i'm a weather geek since i was born clearly it's something I can't get away with. my question is why have the models gotten worse the last decade is say! I feel like models especially the euro used to be a much more useful for weather forecasting, not it's literally a bit or miss! like for instance this storm sunday leaning obviously for OTS solution but craving a big hit for all of us but most models are still wobbling!

[ineedsnow]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s snow in most places Sunday night. You’re talking about Saturday I think? You’re a very confused individual. 
Euro has some snow interior NoP.

Might be able to pull off a inch or so here Saturday

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

Yes, For sure.  
 

That’s the random/luck factor. Back in the 80’s, it was this set up all the time…get worse as we closed in-you could practically guarantee it.  

Then that tide turned in the 90’s, and really went the opposite way in 2000’s/2010’s, where almost every system trended better as it closed in.  
 

And now we back again(and have been for the last 4 years) to the 80’s crap of trending everything worse.   As Ray said, it’s gonna change, it always does, just a matter of when. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021

That storm was forecast to be a massive hit in the mid range, then had the rug pulled in the 48-72 hour range came back last second to still be 6-12"

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

to the pros and advanced, i have question... I've been following weather and i'm a weather geek since i was born clearly it's something I can't get away with. my question is why have the models gotten worse the last decade is say! I feel like models especially the euro used to be a much more useful for weather forecasting, not it's literally a bit or miss! like for instance this storm sunday leaning obviously for OTS solution but craving a big hit for all of us but most models are still wobbling!

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. 
 

There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021

Super Bowl Sunday…that was a nice event. Snowed moderately to heavy all day..great vibe. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. 
 

There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability. 

This is very true.  BUT, the Euro ain’t even close to the Euro of old. Hard to dispute that. That old Euro was a rock more times than not.  I’d take that old Euro back in a hot second. 

[alex]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Turn that frown upside down. 4 weeks of cold at least. Definitely opening up the Gulf which was closed in December. Perhaps even tracking 3 storms a week 

I’d go back to December in a heartbeat lol. This pattern sucks 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

55 in reach today. 

Even MBY might hit 50   Nice sping day

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Even MBY might hit 50   Nice sping day

May as well get it with bare ground 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Even MBY might hit 50   Nice sping day

HRRR is like 55-60 for the Boston Metro, around 55 for Kevin and Hartford metro 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May as well get it with bare ground 

I still have a couple of inches (of glacier) over almost all of my property.  But that will be largely gone by tomorrow night.  It has made the dog walking much easier

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR is like 55-60 for the Boston Metro, around 55 for Kevin and Hartford metro 

With clouds it is not getting near 55 today . Even 50 tough 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

With clouds it is not getting near 55 today . Even 50 tough 

Yeah it really matters to save all that snow you have 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With clouds it is not getting near 55 today . Even 50 tough 

Wow. You only got down to 38°? Let’s get those forsythia buds swelling. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it really matters to save all that snow you have 

I couldn’t  care less. It’s just not likely to get into the 50’s today in hills . It’s not like anyone is outside doing anything on a work day . It’s just the logistics 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Go find other things to do for christ sakes.

Other hobbies?

[dendrite]

Op/details/6z gfs aside…

That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs.