January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

For the very little it’s worth bc the GFS/GEFS is on everyone’s shit list including mine.. GEFS have about 25% of its members that turn that wave into a snowstorm here Sunday PM/Monday AM

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny...the main culprit for how shitty our winters had been was the string of +WPO seasons...well, in the ultimate FU, Mother nature said "here you go".

mmm  Kinda fits my homage last autumn ... and last summer, and last spring, the previous winter and the years and seasons spanning some 10 years or more ... that these mid winter wind scarped shearing neg head shit show winters have been happening regardless of all traditional indicators. 

( I'd put a wink emoji here but I find them to be abhorretly annoying if not a soupcon of condescension and that's not my intent - )

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Balls deep and brown?

A lot of this forum is balls deep and brown 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm  Kinda fits my homage last autumn ... and last summer, and last spring, the previous winter and the years and seasons spanning some 10 years or more ... that these mid winter wind scarped shearing neg head shit show winters have been happening regardless of all traditional indicators. 

( I'd put a wink emoji here but I find them to be abhorretly annoying if not a soupcon of condescension and that's not my intent - )

My futility season wasn't warm, either...1979-1980, which kicked off that stellar decade.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice out today. Can already feel a little sun angle. 

Ha!  I didn't wanna bring it up.   You're far more courageous than I throwin such verbal stones around in this murder hornet's nest

[jbenedet]

Since the 7th— feels and looks like a shift back to 2025 persistence

Temps back to over-performing. It’s a subtle but very important change.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Since the 7th— feels and looks like a shift back to 2025 persistence

Temps back to over-performing. It’s a subtle but very important change.

Going bye-bye with the big WPO shift again. We warmed up due to the AK/Bering vortex…but back to the heavy -WPO after this week. 

[ariof]

59 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen. 

Nationwide, too. Local maxima for snowfall:

42" in the Cascades
2" in the Sierra
33" in the Rockies (up in the Bitterroots)
28" in the UP
49" in Tug Hill
28" in the Whites

Peak winter climo and it is quite dry basically outside the LES belts.

[CoastalWx]

Over performing? I don’t see that. It’s been a mild period and that’s what has occurred. Yesterday was actually slightly cooler than expected. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has some slight interest in the 19-20 timeframe. The 18th is toast I think. Maybe there is a 1-3” upside for the 19-20.

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For the very little it’s worth bc the GFS/GEFS is on everyone’s shit list including mine.. GEFS have about 25% of its members that turn that wave into a snowstorm here Sunday PM/Monday AM

OP euro is trying for 1/19-20. Actually hits CNE/Maine pretty good. Gets MA with light snows. A little late developing. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has some slight interest in the 19-20 timeframe. The 18th is toast I think. Maybe there is a 1-3” upside for the 19-20.

Stay safe

[jbenedet]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

384 hour/16 day Op run…can we get any more ridiculous…that deserves a 10 Bunner. 

You do realize you could run it through day 10 and see the same pattern? 
 

Or you could just run it every cycle and see the same gradient…

 

This is an important signal

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Since the 7th— feels and looks like a shift back to 2025 persistence

Temps back to over-performing. It’s a subtle but very important change.

This is just 100% incorrect. 

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My futility season wasn't warm, either...1979-1980, which kicked off that stellar decade.

yeah, I'm not sure temperature's a very good proxy for driving any conclusions.   Particularly, if we just step back and look a this ... I'd really suggest we are idiosyncratically warm relative to the pattern.  It should be colder than has been, in simple terms.  

Could be caused by changing circulations and ambient thermal states of the planet  ... both of which are concomitant with CC (LOL).   - something is altering these states of the planet, and it is a planetary scope and scaled observation ... so that screams for a common denominator.  CC being a homogeneous state is a common denominator so if the shoe fits - 

sorry.

You know, as an aside, I think a lot of the problems people have with CC isn't the Climate part. It's that everyone and the current zeitgeist is wrongly blaming everything on climate.  Change is culprit.  I'd argue it is a change that doesn't appeal enough to the physical senses, nor trigger inconvenience enough but different discussion.  Change is just a measure of status from before, versus now.   When comparing status from 1990, to status today, utilizing the exact same method for both, a change in status is academically proven:  cooler then, warmer now.

Now, if people had a fucking clue how that change can and does mechanically effect circulation modes, which are ...duh duh dunnn, thus moving around a warmer atmosphere ... there probably would be a lot less of this ridiculous debate  This lunacy in reticence.  

 

 

[weatherwiz]

Certainly something to watch, obviously verbatim as Will said too late for most but that is a nice stream of vorticity so just have to hope we can get a vort max to kind of take the lead early enough. Curious to see what the EPS will look like

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly something to watch, obviously verbatim as Will said too late for most but that is a nice stream of vorticity so just have to hope we can get a vort max to kind of take the lead early enough. Curious to see what the EPS will look like

I'd like to get that vort tube's trajectory off the NJ coast as opposed to LI ...  If so that would be a NJ bomb model low... Like 1987 November, but a cold profile.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, I'm not sure temperature's a very good proxy for driving any conclusions.   Particularly, if we just step back and look a this ... I'd really suggest we are idiosyncratically warm relative to the pattern.  It should be colder than has been, in simple terms.  

Could be caused by changing circulations and ambient thermal states of the planet  ... both of which are concomitant with CC (LOL).   - something is altering these states of the planet, and it is a planetary scope and scaled observation ... so that screams for a common denominator.  CC being a homogeneous state is a common denominator so if the shoe fits - 

sorry.

You know, as an aside, I think a lot of the problems people have with CC isn't the Climate part. It that everyone and the current zeitgeist is wrongly blaming everything on climate.  Change is culprit.  I'd argue it is a change that doesn't appeal enough to the physical senses, nor trigger inconvenience enough but different discussion.  Change is just a measure of status from before, versus now.   When comparing status from 1990, to status today, utilizing the exact same method for both, a change in status is academically proven:  cooler then, warmer now.

Now, if people had a fucking clue how that change can and does mechanically effect circulation modes, which are ...duh duh dunnn, thus moving around a warmer atmosphere ... there probably would be a lot less of this ridiculous debate  This lunacy in reticence.  

 

 

John, I wasn't debating anything or pushing back against CC...I was merely pointing out that. That said, we have both agreed the current snow-drought isn't purely a product of CC. It's making it worse, I'm sure.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd like to get that vort tube's trajectory off the NJ coast as opposed to LI ...  If so that would be a NJ bomb model low... Like 1987 November, but a cold profile.  

That would be nice. Certainly enough time to where that is plausible...that could be wishful thinking it just goes to show it wouldn't take much. That shortwave digging into the northern Plains there may be inhibiting such a scenario? 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, I wasn't debating anything or pushing back against CC...I was merely pointing out that. That said, we have both agreed the current snow-drought isn't purely a product of CC. It's making it worse, I'm sure.

Oh I know - sorry...  that sounded like I was yelling at you, huh.   haha

I swear I was just using that as a diatribe catapult. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I know - sorry...  that sounded like I was yelling at you, huh.   haha

I swear I was just using that as a diatribe catapult. 

I do the same thing, and people respond in like fashion.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro is trying for 1/19-20. Actually hits CNE/Maine pretty good. Gets MA with light snows. A little late developing. 

Canadian Parallel has had this threat as well. Something to keep an eye on.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That would be nice. Certainly enough time to where that is plausible...that could be wishful thinking it just goes to show it wouldn't take much. That shortwave digging into the northern Plains there may be inhibiting such a scenario? 

Bingo...  absolutely.

That's all three, GGEM, GFS and now Euro...

well, they've been doing this for days actually; it's been a matter of how much or how little. 

If you look at that run fro 00 to 200+ hours, it is doing that I think 4 times with a wave capable of dystopian cryo hell ... getting it's nuts cut off by the blade slicing in too close on it's heals. 

That is why the 20th probably goes like the 18 ...and the 22nd or whatever ...etc   I mean we'll see if this changes. 

But that 20th look there proooobably doesn't get more amped and do the NJ thing... as the forcing's leaning against because of all this

[MJO812]

Ensembles like the period after the 20th

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I’d say ensembles show potential after the 20th. That could all easily be rain…. We will be flirting with the gradient.. pattern has gone exactly as expected by most so far this month, minus the no snow bad luck part 

[Damage In Tolland]

What happened to the cold ? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What happened to the cold ? 

Eps is pretty cold

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What happened to the cold ? 

Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles like the period after the 20th

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England 

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully it looks more like this than a cutter