January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJO812]

Gfs slides out after giving the mid atlantic a nice snowstorm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

What camp? They are all pretty similiar.

Yea, what's a foot between weenies...

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, what's a foot between weenies...

Nothing shows a foot

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs slides out after giving the mid atlantic a nice snowstorm.

Heh, interesting 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nothing shows a foot

GFS did earlier. 

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS did earlier. 

12z was a fantasy

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

12z was a fantasy

You don't have to tell me that...just saying. 

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't have to tell me that...just saying. 

This storm isnt going to stall like the gfs did at 12z. I just dont want this to be a Mid Atlantic storm .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This storm isnt going to stall like the gfs did at 12z. I just dont want this to be a Mid Atlantic storm .

If it's like 3-6" I really wouldn't care...prefer it TBH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That storm blows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. Escapes east but close. Don’t hate it as long as euro ticks better.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Escapes east but close. Don’t hate it as long as euro ticks better.

Don't hate it as long as it nuisances south of me.  Mid atl can have the road salt blizzard. 

[Typhoon Tip]

You can see this premature ejaculation erupting off the southeast coast prior to the best amplitude/DPVA approaching the M Atlantic… This thing is basically starving because of that blow off going on off the coast

That’s just the solution. I’m not sure I believe that.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

usually when you have a vort of that intensity at that latitude it’s a nuke. truly incredible 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

usually when you have a vort of that intensity at that latitude it’s a nuke. truly incredible 

Just posted what I think is related to that limitation it’s… Pretty clear that is stealing a lot of dynamics

[Typhoon Tip]

I’ve seen this kind of thing before… You get kind of a bowing back west and the pressure field with a lot of cyclone out east at this range, but then as you get closer, the western solution ends up taking over. This is similar to that, but it’s just doing it with a system that’s progressive so it makes it kind of weird looking

Take away being that it’s possible this is just the hurry up and wait for the W solution to start winning. But that wall of convection erupting over the g string off. The coast is definitely robbing this thing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't hate it as long as it nuisances south of me.  Mid atl can have the road salt blizzard. 

Lol. If only these were slam dunks like the 2010s but it’s the 2020s so we chuck em from half court…

[Go Kart Mozart]

I can see the Canuck through 162.  Looks like it is putting all its chips on wave 2.

[Torch Tiger]

new thread incoming

[wxsniss]

Just catching up, good analysis all, great blog post Ray

To add to all the flies in the ointment, I think the ULL over St. Lawrence River is hindering trough from tilting more negative, scoots this east just as it looks ready to explode. Diminish that and we’d have a huge hit on this 0z GFS.

[brooklynwx99]

always has to be something 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I can see the Canuck through 162.  Looks like it is putting all its chips on wave 2.

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

always has to be something 

Maybe it’s better that it’s not a full blown monster just yet….there’s many days to go, don’t want it getting crazy just yet.  Let’s trend it slowly but surely over the next 2-3 days.

[MJO812]

Euro isnt bad for Eastern areas

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up 

At this point, it’s just another solution. 

[Maestrobjwa]

A met in my sub had an idea:

5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Regarding the moisture issue:
Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NVM all of the other idiosyncrasies that are holding this back, I never like seeing a deep closed low over upstate Carolina.....nothing good comes from that for NE. Upside is a sloppy seconds, off of the tree, off of the car, off of the woodpecker's head, off of the neighbor's dong, nothing but net.-type of moderate event.

I get it...everyone is desperate....it's like when I was in the Marine Corps and we'd lock eyes with a moderately weathered (no pun intended), redheaded chick missing a boob in a jack shack off of Camp Lejune.  This is the type of evolution that you staggered towards at last call when the lights turn on to reveal that you're still by yourself.

Just set expectations accordingly for this first wave. 

It sucks-

The upside isn't much more than that up here. I get it.....people sit on the dopamine syringe and spin when they see the deep closed low, but that is NOT where you want that if you live up here. That overhyped, wind-bag in early January 2018 did that.

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A met in my sub had an idea:

 

You can start with the ridge out west being positively tilted...I said that a couple of days ago....it's like last year. Set up looks good from 500 yards, but once you get a good look, the beer goggles come off. If you remember in that January system circa like the 10th that failed...we had the same issue. We had one big 12z run in that one, too....everyone, including me bough it. Learned a lesson a year ago about the importance of not just the ridge placement, but orientation. 

Look, I get why someone like Kev is excited...he will be happy with like 3-4"..that's fine. Decent shot of that IMO. But at this point of the season, I think a lot of us are done with the sand blasts over trivial amounts of snow. But if you savor every flake and still look forward to it, then great.