January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Spanks45]

Im sort of bummed it clouded up last night. Hit 3.9⁰ around 11 before the clouds rolled in, it was definitely going below zero....ended up with a dusting, just enough to have the plows run up and down the neighborhood....the pack is still sled worthy, so all is good here. Kids are having a blast, they were out for hours sledding after sundown because the moon was so bright. 

[WxWatcher007]

Pretty sure this is the coldest I’ve ever seen it snow—very fine flakes under partly cloudy skies at -1.6/-5.0. Not diamond dust. Maybe some moisture from the epic LES off Ontario made it this way. Regardless, very cool. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

gfs still has almost no digital snow for weeks

Sucks, because the fantasy snow has been coming to fruition.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still really like 2001 type of progression the rest of the way....the only pause that the 2018 analog gives me is that I do not feel February will be that warm....2022-2023 second half with a better Pacific may also be apt, which could be quite nice. That March would have been lethal with a serviceable Pacific.

[Modfan2]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

And if it doesn’t perform it isn’t for a lack of cold air; that will be the disappointing part. At least the Ski areas have been able to make snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

Main difference between this year and 2018 is I think there will be much more of a +TNH element to this season to partially shield us from stronger PV intervals...this is what I think saves us for at least the start of February due to the carry over from the second half of January. The cold will be there after the flushing next week. It will get scary with the PAC jet firing and all, but it's temporary.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think 2014/2022/2025 analogs will play a role in January and February, along with 2001...not a bad cast.

[mahk_webstah]

Well Wunderground has added 1” for Monday night.  Maybe this can ramp up a bit

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

Just questioning that second to last sentence….I mean, why would anybody think it’s over on New Year’s Day, or the day after that(January 2nd?).  I know for you…you’ve largely missed any/all the snow that other areas have received(which certainly puts a different perspective on things for sure).  
 

But for the life of me, I can’t understand throwing in a towel on a winter season(or any season) when it’s literally less than two weeks old(10-11 days into winter). 

Yesterday we had a post that said January was pretty much spent….posted on the very first day of the month, was what he said. 
 

And this isn’t coming from the perspective of all sunshine and lollipops… but posts like that are just trash. Sure, the person has the right to say that, but it’s complete senseless banter on the fist day of the month. 
 

Maybe January ends up sucking. Maybe the next 11.5 weeks of winter end up sucking worse than the previous 4 have.  It could happen. But I can’t understand how anybody can write off a season in its literal infancy.  And I’m not saying you are saying that, because you aren’t.  I’m just pointing out some things is all.  And yes, I’ve enjoyed what we’ve gotten to date, but yes, let’s get some bigger/more significant systems for the area/for all the area. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Just questioning that second to last sentence….I mean, why would anybody think it’s over on New Year’s Day, or the day after that(January 2nd?).  I know for you…you’ve largely missed any/all the snow that other areas have received(which certainly puts a different perspective on things for sure).  
 

But for the life of me, I can’t understand throwing in a towel on a winter season(or any season) when it’s literally less than two weeks old(10-11 days into winter). 

Yesterday we had a post that said January was pretty much spent….posted on the very first day of the month, was what he said. 
 

And this isn’t coming from the perspective of all sunshine and lollipops… but posts like that are just trash. Sure, the person has the right to say that, but it’s complete senseless banter on the fist day of the month. 
 

Maybe January ends up sucking. Maybe the next 11.5 weeks of winter end up sucking worse than the previous 4 have.  It could happen. But I can’t understand how anybody can write off a season in its literal infancy.  And I’m not saying you are saying that, because you aren’t.  I’m just pointing out some things is all.  And yes, I’ve enjoyed what we’ve gotten to date, but yes, let’s get some bigger/more significant systems for the area/for all the area. 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Absolutely agreed. That BAM weather is very good…as I just said in my post, January could end up not being ver good. Or it could be just fine. But we can’t know that at this moment. He says just that. He gives the risks, and says gotta see what happens the next 5 days or so. Good post. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just questioning that second to last sentence….I mean, why would anybody think it’s over on New Year’s Day, or the day after that(January 2nd?).  I know for you…you’ve largely missed any/all the snow that other areas have received(which certainly puts a different perspective on things for sure).  
 

But for the life of me, I can’t understand throwing in a towel on a winter season(or any season) when it’s literally less than two weeks old(10-11 days into winter). 

Yesterday we had a post that said January was pretty much spent….posted on the very first day of the month, was what he said. 
 

And this isn’t coming from the perspective of all sunshine and lollipops… but posts like that are just trash. Sure, the person has the right to say that, but it’s complete senseless banter on the fist day of the month. 
 

Maybe January ends up sucking. Maybe the next 11.5 weeks of winter end up sucking worse than the previous 4 have.  It could happen. But I can’t understand how anybody can write off a season in its literal infancy.  And I’m not saying you are saying that, because you aren’t.  I’m just pointing out some things is all.  And yes, I’ve enjoyed what we’ve gotten to date, but yes, let’s get some bigger/more significant systems for the area/for all the area. 

Most of the time I agree with this but sometimes you do see it coming. Like last year. When you get chance after chance and fabled epic patterns that fail to produce, you can get a sense of the tenor of the season imo. And that’s not to say you can’t get nice stretches, but sometimes a season becomes irredeemable. 

Now that’s not to say it’s all based on vibes, sometimes you can see that a critical piece of what we need just won’t come through (read: PAC in recent years). And just because things are bad it doesn’t mean they necessarily have to get better in the same season. We’ve seen a lot of that recently. Doesn’t mean it’ll always be that way but that’s the cycle we’ve been in.

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just questioning that second to last sentence….I mean, why would anybody think it’s over on New Year’s Day, or the day after that(January 2nd?).  I know for you…you’ve largely missed any/all the snow that other areas have received(which certainly puts a different perspective on things for sure).  
 

But for the life of me, I can’t understand throwing in a towel on a winter season(or any season) when it’s literally less than two weeks old(10-11 days into winter). 

Yesterday we had a post that said January was pretty much spent….posted on the very first day of the month, was what he said. 
 

And this isn’t coming from the perspective of all sunshine and lollipops… but posts like that are just trash. Sure, the person has the right to say that, but it’s complete senseless banter on the fist day of the month. 
 

Maybe January ends up sucking. Maybe the next 11.5 weeks of winter end up sucking worse than the previous 4 have.  It could happen. But I can’t understand how anybody can write off a season in its literal infancy.  And I’m not saying you are saying that, because you aren’t.  I’m just pointing out some things is all.  And yes, I’ve enjoyed what we’ve gotten to date, but yes, let’s get some bigger/more significant systems for the area/for all the area. 

You can end winter past few years before the new year and been spot on so it’s not fantasy to say especially with the upcoming pattern being as bad as it gets

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

We don't need epic cold to get what we want, just get the ridge in the west and trough in the east and we will roll the dice with storm chances, GEFS and GEPS are warmer bc they pump a west coast trough again at the end of the run, while EPS has the trough in the East

[WxWatcher007]

Objectively wrong but what else is new. I'm in one of the least favorable "interior" spots in SNE and in those awful years most of my decent to higher end events came after the new year. Unless you're staring down a truly epic wall to wall blowtorch there's no reason to cancel winter anywhere in New England before January 1. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Most of the time I agree with this but sometimes you do see it coming. Like last year. When you get chance after chance and fabled epic patterns that fail to produce, you can get a sense of the tenor of the season imo. And that’s not to say you can’t get nice stretches, but sometimes a season becomes irredeemable. 

Now that’s not to say it’s all based on vibes, sometimes you can see that a critical piece of what we need just won’t come through (read: PAC in recent years). And just because things are bad it doesn’t mean they necessarily have to get better in the same season. We’ve seen a lot of that recently. Doesn’t mean it’ll always be that way but that’s the cycle we’ve been in.

For sure Don. I absolutely agree with that. But I am speaking for this current season/current month, and those pieces are not missing at the moment.,right now writing off a whole month is stupid banter plain and simple.  
 

I mean, even BAM weather points out that SPV forecasts are not very skillful/accurate, and that was a forecast on an Op run at 15 days away…certainly low skill there; which is why he uses the phrase, “ a Bit of risk to the idea of a 1/12 flip to colder weather.”  
 

That 15 day Op run could be on to something, or if could be like most Op runs at 15 days, and be junk.  For sure, have to see where that goes.  
 

But of course I’d imagine, there’s the idea too, would that even be coupled to the troposphere if that indeed comes to fruition? 

[weatherwiz]

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. 

But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For sure Don. I absolutely agree with that. But I am speaking for this current season/current month, and those pieces are not missing at the moment.,right now writing off a whole month is stupid banter plain and simple.  
 

I mean, even BAM weather points out that SPV forecasts are not very skillful/accurate, and that was a forecast on an Op run at 15 days away…certainly low skill there; which is why he uses the phrase, “ a Bit of risk to the idea of a 1/12 flip to colder weather.”  
 

That 15 day Op run could be on to something, or if could be like most Op runs at 15 days, and be junk.  For sure, have to see where that goes.  
 

But of course I’d imagine, there’s the idea too, would that even be coupled to the troposphere if that indeed come to fruition? 

I’m in 100% agreement with Ray on this season’s evolution. We’re a long way from done.

I’m cautiously optimistic most of NE will be in striking distance of climo (but still behind I think) by the end of February, with a decent March on the table. Just not sure it’ll be with a big event.
 

Nobody likes to lose any time in winter on a less favorable pattern but that’s climo too. Wall to wall isn’t a thing with regularity. Not sure why some people seem to expect that each year. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We don't need epic cold to get what we want, just get the ridge in the west and trough in the east and we will roll the dice with storm chances, GEFS and GEPS are warmer bc they pump a west coast trough again at the end of the run, while EPS has the trough in the East

I was also thinking about that, and in New England this is spot on. Let’s roll the dice. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. 

But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.  

Excellent post Paul. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m in 100% agreement with Ray on this season’s evolution. We’re a long way from done.

I’m cautiously optimistic most of NE will be in striking distance of climo (but still behind I think) by the end of February, with a decent March on the table. Just not sure it’ll be with a big event.
 

Nobody likes to lose any time in winter on a less favorable pattern but that’s climo too. Wall to wall isn’t a thing with regularity. Not sure why some people seem to expect that each year. 

Couldn’t agree more Don…With everything you said.  January thaws are 100% a part of our climatology here in SNE…it’s pretty much guaranteed a short relaxation occurs in January at some point.  
 

And wall to wall is super rare as you point out.  I mean even the record and epic season of 95-96, had all the snow incinerated away in mid January, and then we picked it right back up where we started shortly after that.  
 

Long way to go here…85-90% of the season in front of us yet. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Excellent post Paul. 

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. 

We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. 

This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged.