January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

WOR was the have nots in that one…only ended up with about 8” here of arctic sand with that one. A disappointment for sure. 

Yeah, how they go sometimes. I’m glad @The 4 Seasonsset up that archive, without it I’m lost as to my memories of storm dates.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. 
 

Really could use a big storm to break the drought. 

before 2018, i averaged ~2 double digits storms per year. Since then i have had 5 in the last 8 years.

1/4/18, 12/17/20, 1/23/23, 3/4/23, 3/14/23

it's no coincidence that the winter of 2022-2023 was my only above-average snowfall season in that 8 years.

[CoastalWx]

To Kevin’s point, maybe we can get a little nrn stream involved Sunday 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Maybe we risk some cutters, but I’m only interested in big ticket items.

All the hype about big storms in early to mid January is gone. Models lost it. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I gotta warn y'all ... if this new paradigm as I just described to Brian, and is materialized with vivid coherence in all ensemble means, ends up as persistent as the previous N. Pacific ~ 4 week resonance we could end up observing some sort of partial or more analog to other notable -EPO --> +PNA hemispheres of the past.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the hype about big storms in early to mid January is gone. Models lost it. 

 

Your fault for buying those twitter idiots

[CoastalWx]

Like I said. It’s so satisfying to see these bums fall flat on their face. All the talk of storms and wild times….go eat shit. Love it.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the hype about big storms in early to mid January is gone. Models lost it. 

 

Live by the models, die by them. You know this.  Long range past 5-7 days is a crap shoot. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah  the difference is that stubborn Date Line-ish -WPO hybrid stuck anomaly of the last 4 weeks is finally collapsing   

I explained all this yesterday, and at the risk of sounding like a dick ... it's right.    When that leaves, the hemisphere is/was open in the guidance to establish a new "anchor" pattern - however transient or perm, notwithstanding.   

For awhile ...it appeared the +PNA might emerge, but then over 2 days ... that redrafted into this bono fide -EPO we see in all ens systems. Vivid coherence, too.    

I agree with Scott, that implies a warm up ... purely from climate inference. The magnitude of which, notwithstanding either.  They can sometimes not manifest much N of 40 N ..for other popsicle headaches. 

However, highly correlated is a time lagged event whence cold starts to load into and eventually overcoming (or reinforcing either way) the native N/A circulation mode.  This induces a +PNA  'drag' on the pattern, which then that takes over. I've seen this all take anything from 3 day to 10+ day for the wholesale evolution to complete.  

Sometimes it is not a one and done wholesale show. 2015 was an extreme example of the -EPO --> +PNA relay, where it was pulsating.   The EPO was negative for several weeks, and would dive additional 1.5 SD relative to the longer term bias; then recover, while the PNA would obey this time-lag and rise ...when it did, Logan put another 2 bits in the seasonal till.   It was a perfect cold loader machinery at large synoptic scales.  Other times it is all a more tepid and nuanced tale. Magnitude matters.  I've seen these attempt in early April and it doesn't work out to well because the sun's annihilating the lower troposphere by then.  etc.

I mean I don’t disagree. I wasn’t trying to imply that those maps looked cold for us. We may risk dumping cold well to our west and if we don’t have the cold in QB for your +PP we’ll flirt with warm sectoring the northeast.

But I’m losing interest in these frequent light fluffernutters and persistent low end cold.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like I said. It’s so satisfying to see these bums fall flat on their face. All the talk of storms and wild times….go eat shit. Love it.

Most are just model junkies…look at em and take em at face value. Zero meteorological skill involved.  Horrid. 
 

The guy, Michael Clarke from BAM Weather, gave a great explanation yesterday about this.  Ray and and I posted about it overnight. He’s quite good. 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like I said. It’s so satisfying to see these bums fall flat on their face. All the talk of storms and wild times….go eat shit. Love it.

mm  the public won't see it that way.  

See, we have a unique perspective - in the sense that we represent the .00034% of the total mass intelligentsia in the matter, and will know what "really" transpired.   Those "idiots" as you say?  They are actually both on the meme creating stage, and are their audience - both sides en masse.  That's a different dynamic than you and I. 

That's why Joe B. still had a following  ... maybe not as big - but probably just because popularity tends to have a shelf-life for other reasons ...whatever.  

So, what is invariably going to happen is the new -EPO paradigm will come in, and then the hemisphere chooses the faster cold relay route, and this will genesize a storm for other reasons sometimes around the 10-11-12 period that is grandiose enough to fuel the limited objective opinion engine of their constituencies - meme creator gets all the credit and are geniuses.   

While we are interminably annoyed - 

This is a bit of broader perspective with some tongue-n-cheek cynicism intended.  What Brian just said below is also a part of all this ...

[dendrite]

There’s a percentage of the population that wants to read what they want to see whether it proves right or wrong. So someone like Marky Markgarbage will always have a following of likes and clicks. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  the public won't see it that way.  

See, we have a unique perspective - in the sense that we represent the .00034% of the total mass intelligentsia in the matter, and know what "really" transpired.   Those "idiots" as you say, are actually both on stage, and in audience.  That's a different dynamic that you and I. 

That's why Joe B. still had a following  ... maybe not as big - but probably just because popularity tends to have a shelf-life for other reasons ...whatever.  

So, what is invariably going to happen is the new -EPO paradigm will come in, and then the hemisphere chooses the faster cold relay route, and this will genesize a storm for other reasons sometimes around the 10-11-12 period that is grandiose enough to fuel the limited objective opinion engine of their constituencies and now they're geniuses.   

While we are interminably annoyed - 

Or that storm could be a 975 low over Buffalo. Maybe that’s what they meant by wild times.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

There’s a percentage of the population that wants to read what they want to see whether it proves right or wrong. So someone like Marky Markgarbage will always have a following of likes and clicks. 

You can see it on this forum too. I have no problem calling out dogshit looks. If it sucks it sucks. No sense in sugar coating it.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I don’t disagree. I wasn’t trying to imply that those maps looked cold for us. We may risk dumping cold well to our west and if we don’t have the cold in QB for your +PP we’ll flirt with warm sectoring the northeast.

But I’m losing interest in these frequent light fluffernutters and persistent low end cold.

I see. yeah ...

I also agree.  We're "suffering"  ( some don't, ooh rah heros ) early sunsets and cold hands, it would be at least more tolerable if there were interesting things to study coming through.   The see-thru 2 inches of cobwebs isn't really providing that education.  Ha.  

I for one am looking forward to this very significant change that's coming.  For one, it's the first course work being that it is a new paradigm, and it satisfies some lust for discovery/something new ...  And I do like the odds better in this new paradigm then that Pac N. -WPO hybrid dildo thing.  That was driving the midriff ridge over the continent by extention/transitive wave mechanics ...so seeing that motherfucker leave means we clear the air and make way for ...at least different probabilities.   

I don't care if they are warm or cold, btw.  But I am empathic to the notion that most in here do care.  In this case, yeah ... your bold. I'm like people, cheer up!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Monday doesn’t look that interesting unless northern stream digs a little more for a stronger IVT. Otherwise prob flurries or C-1”. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a percentage of the population that wants to read what they want to see whether it proves right or wrong. So someone like Marky Markgarbage and Donald Trump will always have a following of likes and clicks. 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Don’t do it 

[WinterWolf]

Someone always has to make it political. Sad. Especially on a weather forum. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it 

If 12z tics one more time like that it will get interesting, but I’m not expecting that. 

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

It needs a lot of work and I don’t think there’s enough time. I think the northern stream is the turd in the punchbowl. We’d (you’d) probably be better off with it out of the picture so the southern stream could amplify more on its own. It probably wouldn’t help up here, but maybe there would be time in SNE.

 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If 12z tics one more time like that it will get interesting, but I’m not expecting that. 

I kind of am tbh. That’s been the trend. Thinking there’s light snows Sunday and maybe with the follow up after. Clippers are back…

[WxWatcher007]

To be clear, not saying a KU is coming lol 

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To be clear, not saying a KU is coming lol 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To be clear, not saying a KU is coming lol 

No, I understood.  Clippers are everywhere this year…after a big hiatus. 

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

before 2018, i averaged ~2 double digits storms per year. Since then i have had 5 in the last 8 years.

1/4/18, 12/17/20, 1/23/23, 3/4/23, 3/14/23

it's no coincidence that the winter of 2022-2023 was my only above-average snowfall season in that 8 years.

Depending how close to 2.0/winter, you're doing better than here considering our considerably greater average snowfall, currently 88.5" thru 27 full seasons.  We've had 47 storms of 10"+ in those 27 winters, or 1.7 per.  Maybe we do better on 20"+, currently 8 plus 19.9 in March 2018.

Early January looks cold (~8-10° BN) and dry.  Maybe, like December, it can be BN for precip but AN for snow (22.4" vs 19.3" avg).

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No, I understood.  Clippers are everywhere this year…after a big hiatus. 

I like mine to be critters that bite. 

[Damage In Tolland]

One thing to note is we’ve had a fast PAC flow since early autumn. And one coastal Noreaster in fall. No one should be or have been expecting coastals this winter. You like to see a bunch in fall to set precedent . Fast flows do not deliver big east coast coastals 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like mine to be critters that bite. 

Agreed…. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like mine to be critters that bite. 

We do not disagree there.