Wounded Duck Strikes Back: Dec 26 & 27th Winter Storm Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great forecast for last night and early this AM, with the notable exception that I missed on the placement of the heaviest band, so amounts were oversold in central Mass, where 2-5" fell instead of the 6-10" forecast fell where models had in CT.

Final Grade: B-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/friday-night-saturday-am-snows.html

 

 

[WinterWolf]

Those that had this area 4-8…yes, we hit the very top number, but the low range was off here.  6-10 for this area was a great call. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lots? i saw 2. Thanks for the new preston report, i actually included a new preston report from cocorahs and it was exactly 9.9, maybe thats him

Toss that 8 in Jewett city I was there maybe 6

[vortex95]

21 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

BID reporting thunder 

39 CGs between 00 and 04z.  Not bad!
 

[vortex95]

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What a weird storm. Dryslot into CT yet we worry about dry air. 

I looked further after you mentioned the dry slot.  Now this is whacked. While the sfc low was just E of the Delmarva, the center of the 700 low was close to KRUT!  What?  So wait, the sfc low by conventional standards is too far S for a SNE hit, yet the 700 low is well N which reeks of big dry slot and pcpn flip.

So we ended up w/  the "CoastalWx Quandary."  We were fighting dry Arctic air mass at low-levels and at the same time loss of RH at mid and upper levels is moving in?  Lose both ways?

A squeeze play, dry air storm!  And a surprise wild SNOINCR event in CT.

Once again, the weirdness of this storm sticks out.
 

[vortex95]

Saw 3 reports from Weymouth -- 4.2, 3.5, and 3.3. Which one was CoastalWx?

Overall, a quite good event for Dec, esp. CT/RI/SE MA where ocean temps often are a big issue this early.  Many locations now have above avg snowfall for Dec.  Couple that w/ the solid snowfall in NNE, best winter month for the region in some time!

So I don't want to hear it from CoastalWx!

 

[rgwp96]

19 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Dammm. Nobody is immune to those busts. I can recall a lot of those …especially when I was growing up in the 80’s.  I can feel the pain/disappointment.  there will be more chances. 
 

6-10” is what we were forecast to get for here…we got it. Pushing 8” and still snowing lightly. 

I ended up with 3.8.  Can’t complain I’ve have 11.4 for December but every  storm I’ve had has been under  in the forecasted amounts lol. 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Saw 3 reports from Weymouth -- 4.2, 3.5, and 3.3. Which one was CoastalWx?

Overall, a quite good event for Dec, esp. CT/RI/SE MA where ocean temps often are a big issue this early.  Many locations now have above avg snowfall for Dec.  Couple that w/ the solid snowfall in NNE, best winter month for the region in some time!

So I don't want to hear it fro CoastalWx!

 

6” for the month. Meh. Especially with this cold. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6” for the month. Meh. Especially with this cold. 

Yeah this month underperformed. The late north trends for this past storm were nice, but I only got 3 or so inches and it’s probably going to be gone unless Monday trends a lot colder. Oh well, the January pattern looks promising for a minor threat (4-8 ish if everything breaks right) around new years and a bigger storm on the 6th.

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I ended up with 3.8.  Can’t complain I’ve have 11.4 for December but every  storm I’ve had has been under  in the forecasted amounts lol. 

Decent, though no blockbusters.  Same here, proportionally to climo snow - now 20.3" for the month (no flakes from yesterday, as forecast). 
Tomorrow night/Monday looks to be mostly IP/ZR here.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Toss that 8 in Jewett city I was there maybe 6

I never included it on my map. It won't be on the final one either it sticks out like a sore thumb obviously wrong. Thx Steve

[psv88]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I looked further after you mentioned the dry slot.  Now this is whacked. While the sfc low was just E of the Delmarva, the center of the 700 low was close to KRUT!  What?  So wait, the sfc low by conventional standards is too far S for a SNE hit, yet the 700 low is well N which reeks of big dry slot and pcpn flip.

So we ended up w/  the "CoastalWx Quandary,"  We were fighting dry Arctic air mass at low-levels and at the same time loss of RH at mid and upper levels is moving in?  Lose both ways?

A squeeze play, dry air storm!  And a surprise wild SNOINCR event in CT.

Once again, the weirdness of this storm sticks out.
 

What about the hours of ocean effect snow that hit Long Island and southern nyc? Never seen that before either. Weird storm everywhere 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6” for the month. Meh. Especially with this cold. 

BOS avg December snowfall (1991-2020) is 9".  So that's likely your avg accounting for further S and inland a bit.  Better than recent Decembers, no?

I would say the area bounded by BOS-PVD-ORH-CON-PSM has not cashed in as much as Cape Cod, the South Coast, western New England, and a large part of northern New England for snowfall so far this season.  We are doing it piecemeal in the region  The fact CoastalWx's area has been lame is irrelevant to the big pix.  IMBY syndrome...want me to call the WHAN-bu-lance?      You can't expect every winter or storm to be the PT level, like Bliz of 97, 05, or 13!

And  then this response, "but it is been so lousy for so long!"  I don't know what to tell you.  These periods happen.  And CoastalWx knows this from when he was a kid in the 80s.    And in the here and now, we seem to be on the right track overall.  Like I said before, If Jan-Feb acts like Dec, it's going to end up a pretty good winter for most!
 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

I ended up with 3.8.  Can’t complain I’ve have 11.4 for December but every  storm I’ve had has been under  in the forecasted amounts lol. 

That's the right attitude!  Each storm has exceeded your expectations!

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What about the hours of ocean effect snow that hit Long Island and southern nyc? Never seen that before either. Weird storm everywhere 

I didn't catch that.  When did that occur?  Later in the storm as well like SE MA?
Long Island certainty has done well this month!  That S Coast/Cape Cod storm earlier this month dumped up to 9", and now up to 8" w/ this past storm.

 

[psv88]

Just now, vortex95 said:

I didn't catch that.  When did that occur?  Later in the storm as well like SE MA?
Long Island certainty has done well this month!  That S Coast/Cape Cod storm earlier this month dumped up to 9", and now up to 8" w/ this past storm.

 

Occurred from around 9 pm to 3 am. South shore cleaned up from that. Yes we’ve have an outstanding month down here 

[eduggs]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great forecast for last night and early this AM, with the notable exception that I missed on the placement of the heaviest band, so amounts were oversold in central Mass, where 2-5" fell instead of the 6-10" forecast fell where models had in CT.

Final Grade: B-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/friday-night-saturday-am-snows.html

 

 

I know you were forecasting for SNE, but in case anyone is looking outside that area, the "verification" map is significantly low in ALB's region. Those reports were not final.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

I know you were forecasting for SNE, but in case anyone is looking outside that area, the "verification" map is significantly low in ALB's region. Those reports were not final.

Thanks for mentioning....I noticed that that actually made my map look worse if extrapolating it out haha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

6” for the month. Meh. Especially with this cold. 

Yea, another sucky month in terms of snow AFAIC......only reason it isn't abysmal is the 3" right before XMAS. But I'm not sure how you consider it a good winter month when your largest storm is 3". I'd take January 2024 over December 2025 100/100 times.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't give a rat's greasy taint about pond hockey...give me one huge storm surrounded by 50's, over cold and dry. It's easy to mock the IMBYism when you aren't in someone's shoes...it's been nearly a decade since I have sniffed a normal snowfall season. That is extraordinarily unusual and did NOT happen in the 80s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

BOS avg December snowfall (1991-2020) is 9".  So that's likely your avg accounting for further S and inland a bit.  Better than recent Decembers, no?

I would say the area bounded by BOS-PVD-ORH-CON-PSM has not cashed in as much as Cape Cod, the South Coast, western New England, and a large part of northern New England for snowfall so far this season.  We are doing it piecemeal in the region  The fact CoastalWx's area has been lame is irrelevant to the big pix.  IMBY syndrome...want me to call the WHAN-bu-lance?      You can't expect every winter or storm to be the PT level, like Bliz of 97, 05, or 13!

And  then this response, "but it is been so lousy for so long!"  I don't know what to tell you.  These periods happen.  And CoastalWx knows this from when he was a kid in the 80s.    And in the here and now, we seem to be on the right track overall.  Like I said before, If Jan-Feb acts like Dec, it's going to end up a pretty good winter for most!
 

I think that is extended a bit too far to the north...MHT has like 14", which is at least normal for them....but I am not far se of them and only have 8".

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is extended a bit too far to the north...MHT has like 14", which is at least normal for them....but I am not far se of them and only have 8".

I was just going by climate sites for a first guess. CON is -2.4" for the season, but they are +0.5" for Dec, so only parts of srn NH.

 

[vortex95]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't give a rat's greasy taint about pond hockey...give me one huge storm surrounded by 50's, over cold and dry. It's easy to mock the IMBYism when you aren't in someone's shoes...it's been nearly a decade since I have sniffed a normal snowfall season. That is extraordinarily unusual and did NOT happen in the 80s.

It's been lame I know, but just last 5 years, we have had two blockbusters than don't even come close to anything during the lame period 978-79 to 1991-92.  I brought these up to CoastalWx recently.

Dec 16-17, 2020 

Snowfall map attached.  40"+ in a single snowstorm is rather rare in the Northeast and multiple reports.

Sanbornton, NH: 42.4" - That is awfully close to the 24-hour snowfall
record for the entire state of New Hampshire (49.3" atop Mount Washington,
but that's almost cheating at over 6,000 feet).

Binghamton, NY: 42.0" (40.0" at the official airport site) - That was good
enough for the biggest snowstorm in the city's history! The old record was
35.3" in March of 2017. Binghamton averages about 82" in a full season,
meaning they got about half in one day.

Williamsport, PA: 24.7" - Another all-time record. And even more impressive,
the city known for the Little League Baseball World Series only averages
about 35" in an entire winter season.

Alba, PA: 43.3" - This is currently under investigation and may end up as a
new state of Pennsylvania 24-hour snowfall record.

Ludlow, VT: 44.0" and Landgrove, VT: 42.0" - Both may have set new
state Vermont 24-hour snowfall records.

Jan 28-29, 2022

Snowfall map a attached.

BOS 7th biggest snowstorm 24.3
tied record one day total  23.6"

PVD 4th biggest snowstorms 19,3"
biggest daily snowfall on record 18.8"

Max amount 35.7" Bridgewater  MA

Do we forget so easy?  Is an above avg snowfall season better than getting an isolated blockbuster in a below avg snowfall season?  That's a matter of preference, but it not like we have lacked true KU classics during this current lame period.  It's like the winter of 1996-97, well below avg snowfall for the season in much of southern New England, and then April Fools Blizzard made up for it being one of the most classic storms ever and brought my seasonal snowfall to almost exactly avg.  Even CoastalWx I think will agree here!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It's been lame I know, but just last 5 years, we have had two blockbusters than don't even come close to anything during the lame period 978-79 to 1991-92.  I brought these up to CoastalWx recently.

Dec 16-17, 2020 

Snowfall map attached.  40"+ in a single snowstorm is rather rare in the Northeast and multiple reports.

Sanbornton, NH: 42.4" - That is awfully close to the 24-hour snowfall
record for the entire state of New Hampshire (49.3" atop Mount Washington,
but that's almost cheating at over 6,000 feet).

Binghamton, NY: 42.0" (40.0" at the official airport site) - That was good
enough for the biggest snowstorm in the city's history! The old record was
35.3" in March of 2017. Binghamton averages about 82" in a full season,
meaning they got about half in one day.

Williamsport, PA: 24.7" - Another all-time record. And even more impressive,
the city known for the Little League Baseball World Series only averages
about 35" in an entire winter season.

Alba, PA: 43.3" - This is currently under investigation and may end up as a
new state of Pennsylvania 24-hour snowfall record.

Ludlow, VT: 44.0" and Landgrove, VT: 42.0" - Both may have set new
state Vermont 24-hour snowfall records.

Jan 28-29, 2022

Snowfall map a attached.

BOS 7th biggest snowstorm 24.3
tied record one day total  23.6"

PVD 4th biggest snowstorms 19,3"
biggest daily snowfall on record 18.8"

Max amount 35.7" Bridgewater  MA

Do we forget so easy?  Is an above avg snowfall season better than getting an isolated blockbuster in a below avg snowfall season?  That's a matter of preference, but it not like we have lacked true KU classics during this current lame period.  It's like the winter of 1996-97, well below avg snowfall for the season in much of southern New England, and then April Fools Blizzard made up for it being one of the most classic storms ever and brought my seasonal snowfall to almost exactly avg.  Even CoastalWx I think will agree here!

When you got boned in both "blockbusters", absolutely. I mentioned January 2024 because I didn't get boned in the January 7th event....I would also take December 2019, and February 2021.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's cute how you list all of these meteorological milestones in areas where I do not reside, as if that will sway my opinion of my much it's sucked diseased donkey balls where I live.

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When you got boned in both "blockbusters", absolutely. I mentioned January 2024 because I didn't get boned in the January 7th event....I would also take December 2019, and February 2021.

Are you upset b/c of my earlier post?  I am just trying to keep things in proper context/perspective.

I don't know what to tell you as to the lame period now.  Just one of those things when a certain areas in a period get ripped off, and some more than other even within the same lame period.  It happens due to law of averages and large numbers, and in many locations around the world when you consider all that can and can not happen.  You can slice and dice things down and find a lot more "screw zones" if you really work at it, and sometimes due to bad luck or random chance, they are going to end up right in your location.

I can given you an exceptional example from Woburn.  From the 1984-85 to 1991-1992 seasons, my biggest single storm total was only 11".  That's really lame for such a long period, considering my location is ideal often for being just staying on the cold side of the coastal front, and a bit of QPF enhancement that occurs sometimes along the 128 area N&W of BOS in many solid nor'easters. You know how common a foot plus in single storms was 1992-93 to 2015-16?   It truly that shows how exceptional that lame period was.

[The 4 Seasons]

I really love that Dec 16-17, 2020 blizzard. Getting a 12"+ snowstorm during December is exceedingly rate probably the only time in my life I've seen one around here.  Despite those 35-45" reports from that death band I was more than happy with what we got.  And those gravity waves at the end were cool as sh*t.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Are you upset b/c of my earlier post?  I am just trying to keep things in proper context/perspective.

I don't know what to tell you as to the lame period now.  Just one of those things when a certain areas in a period get ripped off, and some more than other even within the same lame period.  It happens due to law of averages and large numbers, and in many locations around the world when you consider all that can and can not happen.  You can slice and dice things down and find a lot more "screw zones" if you really work at it, and sometimes due to bad luck or random chance, they are going to end up right in your location.

I can given you an exceptional example from Woburn.  From the 1984-85 to 1991-1992 seasons, my biggest single storm total was only 11".  That's really lame for such a long period, considering my location is ideal often for being just staying on the cold side of the coastal front, and a bit of QPF enhancement that occurs sometimes along the 128 area N&W of BOS in many solid nor'easters. You know how common a foot plus in single storms was 1992-93 to 2015-16?   It truly that shows how exceptional that lame period was.

I'm not upset at you at all . The frustration is strictly over the weather....