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January 2026 OBS and Discussion


TriPol
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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

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Far far far cry from what it showed yesterday, and as much as it sucks the evolution of this storm actually makes a lot of sense. There's a potent closed low and by looking at H5 without anything else it looks sexy, but by the time the dynamics come into play it's far to late for us (which is often the case) and favors areas well to our NE. 

 

On the bright side, even some mood snow would be welcome after the recent warmup. 

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35 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Far far far cry from what it showed yesterday, and as much as it sucks the evolution of this storm actually makes a lot of sense. There's a potent closed low and by looking at H5 without anything else it looks sexy, but by the time the dynamics come into play it's far to late for us (which is often the case) and favors areas well to our NE. 

 

On the bright side, even some mood snow would be welcome after the recent warmup. 

Huge uptick on the gefs. We should open a thread soon.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_19 (1).png

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge uptick on the gefs. We should open a thread soon.

 

 

I did notice a bunch of 960s something mb lows on the individuals off of the Cape at 18z Fri. That's a bit west of the GFS op. I'll take the 958mb just off Montauk though! It's fun to look at but even on the GFS and GEFS, the 850mb/700mb lows are too slow to develop. And I'm losing confidence in this type of solution as we lose models to the Canadian solution.

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Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

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