January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Mr. T.]

Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

[psv88]

Snow squall and 34, little coating down 

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

I did notice a bunch of 960s something mb lows on the individuals off of the Cape at 18z Fri. That's a bit west of the GFS op. I'll take the 958mb just off Montauk though! It's fun to look at but even on the GFS and GEFS, the 850mb/700mb lows are too slow to develop. And I'm losing confidence in this type of solution as we lose models to the Canadian solution.

Its not that far from a bigger solution

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

Do you pity the fool who believes anything over two days out?

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not that far from a bigger solution

I like the ensemble trends. Actually not bad considering it's still 4 days out. 

[donsutherland1]

Three photos from Armonk during this evening's snow squall and a short video: 

[Franklin0529]

euro says what storm?

[MJO812]

Its still there but its offshore. It keeps changing. 

[donsutherland1]

After 34 consecutive days during which it was negative, the PNA went positive today (+0.173). Whether a persistent PNA+ regime develops will have important medium- and long-range implications.

Following this evenings snow squall and snow showers, modestly cooler air is returning to the region. Through midweek, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +20.69 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.499 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[David-LI]

18z euro is basically a non event for next weekend. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Huge uptick on the gefs. We should open a thread soon.

Make the thread Ant  If anything. It will clear up the Jan. Discussion/Obs thread.

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, David-LI said:

18z euro is basically a non event for next weekend. 

Typical model mayhem 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Three photos from Armonk during this evening's snow squall and a short video: 

my old neighborhood by Taza cafe

[Krs4Lfe]

Long range GFS is the things that weenies dreams are made of. But it keeps showing a very active period with a few distinct events for several cycles now. 16th, 19th, 22nd, and 25th, with no breaks in the cold in between. Been quite consistent so you’d think it’s onto something. However; it also had NYC at 8” of snow for the last storm that gave us 4” so maybe not

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Long range GFS is the things that weenies dreams are made of. But it keeps showing a very active period with a few distinct events for several cycles now. 16th, 19th, 22nd, and 25th, with no breaks in the cold in between. Been quite consistent so you’d think it’s onto something. However; it also had NYC at 8” of snow for the last storm that gave us 4” so maybe not

even a broken clock is correct 2 times a day..

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam shows the storm 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam shows the storm 

 

It finally has the critical shortwave diving south through MN at 60hr. Not quite as sharp as the GFS, but huge improvement over 18z.

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam shows the storm 

Has some potential here, though the lead wave robbing some energy plus the base of the trough not being quite neutral yet might shunt the best dynamics east when it matters most. 

[eduggs]

The Canadian is still not on board.

[WeatherGeek2025]

we need the low circled to take control from my understanding... correct me if i'm wrong 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The Canadian is still not on board.

Neither is ICON. Light precip at best. At some point, something has to break. We’re 3.5 days away from go time, and GFS (NAM most likely too if it was fully in range) shows a good sized storm. Euro, UK, CMC, Icon show almost nothing. Not sure I’d want to be in the GFS/Nam camp. Upper levels aloft look pretty good but it’s not translating to surface.

[WeatherGeek2025]

right now i'd lean towards a small impact storm maybe an inch or two! i'd give it until tuesday until consensus!

[Krs4Lfe]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

right now i'd lean towards a small impact storm maybe an inch or two! i'd give it until tuesday until consensus!

Yeah I’d lean in the camp where most of the models are. GFS has been on an island the entire time. Not sure how it impacts the wave behind it but I think if this continues to trend deamplified then the following wave would follow suit 

[eduggs]

The critical shortwave on the 0z GFS is slightly further east this run. Crossing WI instead of MN. That's probably not good.

[eduggs]

Yeah the GFS shifted towards model consensus unfortunately.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah the GFS shifted towards model consensus unfortunately.

Gfs folded.

Threat is done 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs folded.

Threat is done 

 

Looks like some rain/snow showers for the area. Brutal cave. GFS needs to be taken out to pasture. Onto the next one 

[eduggs]

I don't think it's game set match just yet. It's not unprecedented for a 3 or 4 day model head fake. But we'd really have to pull a rabbit out of our hats at this point.

If this plays out close to the 0z GFS, I think it was a great job by the AI models. They showed this weird, disjointed surface setup for days and hardly wavered.

[eduggs]

It feels like it's been a pretty active winter so far in the Adirondacks and N VT. Lots of small and medium events. I see no reason why that won't continue. Down here we've had a lot of dustings and coatings... As many this year as the past 4 combined.

[eduggs]

The GEFS are clustering around the OP as usual, so 0z is worse than 18z. But they are not catastrophic. They don't look completely hopeless. Still some plausible path back to a snow threat. When you trace the critical shortwave(s) back to deep northern Canada, its seems incredible that such a minor shift (100 miles) in placement of a ripple in the flow that travels 3000 miles could have such a major impact on future weather. That's just to say that a minor model error in the critical shortwave track could still cause significant model changes from here on out.