January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Mr. T.]

Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

[psv88]

Snow squall and 34, little coating down 

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

I did notice a bunch of 960s something mb lows on the individuals off of the Cape at 18z Fri. That's a bit west of the GFS op. I'll take the 958mb just off Montauk though! It's fun to look at but even on the GFS and GEFS, the 850mb/700mb lows are too slow to develop. And I'm losing confidence in this type of solution as we lose models to the Canadian solution.

Its not that far from a bigger solution

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

Do you pity the fool who believes anything over two days out?

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not that far from a bigger solution

I like the ensemble trends. Actually not bad considering it's still 4 days out. 

[donsutherland1]

Three photos from Armonk during this evening's snow squall and a short video: 

[Franklin0529]

euro says what storm?

[MJO812]

Its still there but its offshore. It keeps changing. 

[donsutherland1]

After 34 consecutive days during which it was negative, the PNA went positive today (+0.173). Whether a persistent PNA+ regime develops will have important medium- and long-range implications.

Following this evenings snow squall and snow showers, modestly cooler air is returning to the region. Through midweek, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +20.69 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.499 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[David-LI]

18z euro is basically a non event for next weekend. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Huge uptick on the gefs. We should open a thread soon.

Make the thread Ant  If anything. It will clear up the Jan. Discussion/Obs thread.

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, David-LI said:

18z euro is basically a non event for next weekend. 

Typical model mayhem