January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying

The box just shifted east from the old map

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying

i think you and i might make the cut at least lmao

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i think you and i might make the cut at least lmao

its winter; there is always a slight risk of heavy snow. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently:

Light rain. 34.5°

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

That CPC had no heavy snowfall threats on its 3-7 day hazards outlook suggestes that the CPC also believes the latter system poses a greater winter weather risk.

[donsutherland1]

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. The warm anomalies peaked yesterday with temperatures running 12.6° above normal in Central Park. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. 

Rain and showers will end early tomorrow. Rainfall remains on track for a storm-total 0.50"-1.00" rainfall across much of the region by the time the last showers depart early tomorrow. 

Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +21.91 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.082 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 37F here with a light rain falling. Alot of winter left, I'm not going to jump ship yet.

[sussexcountyobs]

5 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Currently 37F here with a light rain falling. Alot of winter left, I'm not going to jump ship yet.

Why on Earth would ANYONE jump ship on winter on Jan. 10th???

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Currently:

Light rain. 34.5°

Congrats on your colder rain!

[MANDA]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. The warm anomalies peaked yesterday with temperatures running 12.6° above normal in Central Park. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. 

Rain and showers will end early tomorrow. Rainfall remains on track for a storm-total 0.50"-1.00" rainfall across much of the region by the time the last showers depart early tomorrow. 

Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +21.91 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.082 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Hi Don.  Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today?  Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU?  As you said the warming has peaked.   Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal.  It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book.

Any stats appreciated.  Thanks.

Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Congrats on your colder rain!

Yea. It's miserable out.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yea. It's miserable out.

Yeah….torch.  Not.  

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, MANDA said:

Yeah….torch.  Not.  

Not even close to a "torch". And what does "torch" even mean?

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS rolling...

[BoulderWX]

Storm signal still there on GFS, all that matters at this point

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Storm signal still there on GFS, all that matters at this point

Very wacky precip field but yeah storm is there so doesn't matter at this point

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Storm signal still there on GFS, all that matters at this point

good run overall

[Jt17]

Very wacky precip field but yeah storm is there so doesn't matter at this point

6z and 18z have been less impressive than 0z and 12z with this storm pretty consistently the last 2 days for whatever that's worth.


.

[Wannabehippie]

Any snow piles that I  had left are being washed away this evening. I expect them all to be gone by morning. Ready for a fresh snow.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Hi Don.  Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today?  Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU?  As you said the warming has peaked.   Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal.  It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book.

Any stats appreciated.  Thanks.

Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?

Here you go. 

Note: I don't have data for Morristown.

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS

Mmmmm, perdy.  Lock it in.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Mmmmm, perdy.  Lock it in.

12z gfs was a fantasy run. Not going to happen. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently:

Light rain. 33.8°

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here you go. 

Note: I don't have data for Morristown.

Thanks very much.

[SACRUS]

On 1/9/2026 at 8:36 AM, SACRUS said:

 

 

Warmup period so far

  SIte:  High / low (dep)
EWR:
1/6:  44 / 31 (+5)
1/7: 54 / 37 (+13)
1/8: 53 / 41 (+14)
1/9: 54 / 32 (+11)

NYC:
1/6: 42 / 35 (+5)
1/7: 49 / 37 (+9)
1/8: 50 / 32 (+12)
1/9: 54 / 39 (+13)

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah….torch.  Not.  

Multiple days in the 50s area wide in mid January is a torch in my book. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro with light snow Friday 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro with light snow Friday 

I thought it was going to be a hit based off the upper levels but it went east 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I thought it was going to be a hit based off the upper levels but it went east 

is it an improvement from the 12z?

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro ai looks like it slightly improved!