January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NorthShoreWx]

Finally, since its a slow wx news day, here is how my backyard fared in every NESIS event since 1/1/1996 as listed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

Rank	Start	End	NESIS	Cat	Description	Smithtown Snowfall
2	1/6/1996	1/8/1996	11.78	5	Extreme	22.3
59	3/31/1997	4/1/1997	2.29	1	Notable	3.0
56	1/24/2000	1/26/2000	2.52	2	Significant	5.3
58	12/30/2000	12/31/2000	2.37	1	Notable	11.0
87	1/19/2001	1/21/2001	1.12	1	Notable	4.0
57	1/2/2003	1/5/2003	2.49	1	Notable	2.2
82	2/6/2003	2/8/2003	1.3	1	Notable	6.8
6	2/15/2003	2/18/2003	7.5	4	Crippling	18.8
75	3/3/2003	3/6/2003	1.54	1	Notable	5.7
51	12/14/2003	12/16/2003	2.77	2	Significant	4.9
63	1/27/2004	1/28/2004	2.03	1	Notable	13.5
9	1/21/2005	1/24/2005	6.8	4	Crippling	14.4
50	2/28/2005	3/2/2005	2.84	2	Significant	7.2
34	2/12/2006	2/13/2006	4.1	3	Major	13.3
16	2/12/2007	2/15/2007	5.63	3	Major	1.3
54	3/15/2007	3/18/2007	2.54	2	Significant	4.8
85	12/19/2008	12/20/2008	1.25	1	Notable	7.3
80	1/17/2009	1/19/2009	1.32	1	Notable	3.1
73	3/1/2009	3/3/2009	1.59	1	Notable	11.5
37	12/18/2009	12/21/2009	3.99	2	Significant	17.0
69	1/29/2010	1/30/2010	1.66	1	Notable	0.0
30	2/4/2010	2/7/2010	4.38	3	Major	Trace
33	2/9/2010	2/11/2010	4.1	3	Major	14.5
17	2/23/2010	2/28/2010	5.46	3	Major	12.1
26	12/24/2010	12/28/2010	4.92	3	Major	12.0
21	1/9/2011	1/13/2011	5.31	3	Major	15.8
61	1/26/2011	1/27/2011	2.17	1	Notable	14.5
22	2/1/2011	2/3/2011	5.3	3	Major	0.8
66	10/29/2011	10/30/2011	1.75	1	Notable	Trace
31	2/7/2013	2/10/2013	4.35	3	Major	27.0
48	3/4/2013	3/9/2013	3.05	2	Significant	6.9
49	12/13/2013	12/16/2013	2.95	2	Significant	4.2
45	12/30/2013	1/3/2014	3.31	2	Significant	8.5
84	1/20/2014	1/22/2014	1.26	1	Notable	9.0
35	1/29/2014	2/4/2014	4.08	3	Major	8.8
44	2/4/2014	2/5/2014	3.34	2	Significant	3.1
23	2/11/2014	2/14/2014	5.28	3	Major	13.5
74	11/26/2014	11/28/2014	1.56	1	Notable	Trace
76	12/9/2014	12/14/2014	1.49	1	Notable	1.4
53	1/25/2015	1/28/2015	2.62	2	Significant	15.0
18	1/29/2015	2/3/2015	5.42	3	Major	8.3
79	2/8/2015	2/10/2015	1.32	1	Notable	0.3
81	2/20/2015	2/22/2015	1.31	1	Notable	4.4
68	3/3/2015	3/5/2015	1.66	1	Notable	6.3
5	1/22/2016	1/24/2016	7.66	4	Crippling	17.5
55	1/4/2017	1/8/2017	2.52	2	Significant	9.5
64	2/9/2017	2/10/2017	1.87	1	Notable	12.0
24	3/12/2017	3/15/2017	5.03	3	Major	4.5
60	1/3/2018	1/5/2018	2.27	1	Notable	11.0
70	3/1/2018	3/3/2018	1.65	1	Notable	0.1
42	3/5/2018	3/8/2018	3.45	2	Significant	9.1
47	3/11/2018	3/15/2018	3.16	2	Significant	6.0
71	3/20/2018	3/22/2018	1.63	1	Notable	13.6
62	1/11/2019	1/13/2019	2.03	1	Notable	Trace
83	3/3/2019	3/4/2019	1.29	1	Notable	4.8
46	12/14/2020	12/18/2020	3.21	2	Significant	6.7
25	1/30/2021	2/3/2021	4.93	3	Major	16.6
88	1/1/2022	1/3/2022	1.06	1	Notable	Trace
72	1/4/2022	1/7/2022	1.6	1	Notable	9.1
67	1/28/2022	1/30/2022	1.73	1	Notable	16.4
4	12/13/2022	12/20/2022	8.52	4	Crippling	0.0
52	12/21/2022	12/26/2022	2.66	2	Significant	0.0

 

[donsutherland1]

Milder weather has moved into the region. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures.

Some rain is possible starting late Friday or Friday night. Periods of rain could extend into Sunday. The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +8.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.850 today. 

 

[nycwinter]

how boring the weather is we got comments talking about snowstorms of yesteryear..

[winterwx21]

We have to wait to get the cold air back. I know people had pointed to Monday the 12th for the return of cold air, but it doesn't look impressive. Now it looks like 40s next week which is above normal. 

I think we probably have to wait until closer to the 20th for the return of significant cold air. As others have pointed out, we usually have a good part 2 to winter after a cold/snowy December. I'm optimistic that we'll get a good amount of snow in late January or February after this break from the cold air that we're going to see for a couple weeks. 

Of course you never know, so we'll keep an eye on next week. We certainly can get lucky in a borderline situation in mid January. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

We have to wait to get the cold air back. I know people had pointed to Monday the 12th for the return of cold air, but it doesn't look impressive. Now it looks like 40s next week which is above normal. 

I think we probably have to wait until closer to the 20th for the return of significant cold air. As others have pointed out, we usually have a good part 2 to winter after a cold/snowy December. I'm optimistic that we'll get a good amount of snow in late January or February after this break that we're going to see for a couple weeks. 

Of course you never know, so we'll keep an eye on next week. We certainly can get lucky in a borderline situation in mid January. 

La Nina's tend to have their best cold/snow in the front end-so what we're seeing is not surprising.

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable.  ????

I am probably mixing it up then with a different winter.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am probably mixing it up then with a different winter.

I wasn't sure either but it has been confirmed big melt / flooding about 10 days after 1996 Blizzard.

[EasternLI]

If you want a period to watch for a storm. The Period ~15th is def. worth keeping an eye on... Possibly a big +PNA phase shift, well advertised actually, with potential for some southern energy running out during that time. Could end up as nothing. Anything could. But when I see that kind of framework, I think you watch that every time.

[wishcast_hater]

I am hoping for an unforeseen change in the weather just like the week before Christmas that was advertised as a warm up and then suddenly the models reversed course. I have about 6” of snow left on the ground after the last rainstorm. Going to be painful to lose my winter wonderland.


.

[Cyg]

Walking in New Providence right now, seems like a light mist is falling. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

I wasn't sure either but it has been confirmed big melt / flooding about 10 days after 1996 Blizzard.

I remember that well and how devastating it was. What others forget however was how quickly the snowpack was rebuilt again and how the ground remained snow covered in some of the forum, I can only speak for myself and those of us in the north, through most of February and March. 
That was a true Thanksgiving to early April winter. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remember that well and how devastating it was. What others forget however was how quickly the snowpack was rebuilt again and how the ground remained snow covered in some of the forum, I can only speak for myself and those of us in the north, through most of February and March. 
That was a true Thanksgiving to early April winter. 

I believe its still the only winter to have above normal snowfall each month from nov to april

[psv88]

30 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Walking in New Providence right now, seems like a light mist is falling. 

Stay safe!

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remember that well and how devastating it was. What others forget however was how quickly the snowpack was rebuilt again and how the ground remained snow covered in some of the forum, I can only speak for myself and those of us in the north, through most of February and March. 
That was a true Thanksgiving to early April winter. 

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other.

 

Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

[Dan76]

50 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other.

 

Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

93-94 was tops, we had like 10 storms here and cold.

[Krs4Lfe]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

La Nina's tend to have their best cold/snow in the front end-so what we're seeing is not surprising.

That sounds terrible. If 8” of snow in NYC is the best this winter has to offer and the backside is worse, then we’re looking at a near ratter. The cold has been impressive though. Just wish there were more opportunities coming for snow. December was amazing; would be nice for January to have continued that trend. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That sounds terrible. If 8” of snow in NYC is the best this winter has to offer and the backside is worse, then we’re looking at a near ratter. The cold has been impressive though. Just wish there were more opportunities coming for snow. December was amazing; would be nice for January to have continued that trend. 

Dude your posts have been atrocious. Its only early January.  

LA nina is about dead 

[MJO812]

[Krs4Lfe]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude your posts have been atrocious. Its only early January.  

LA nina is about dead 

Im just saying that if La Niña is truly front loaded and somehow we escape Jan without any meaningful snow; it wouldn’t bode well for the back half of winter. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Im just saying that if La Niña is truly front loaded and somehow we escape Jan without any meaningful snow; it wouldn’t bode well for the back half of winter. 

A neutral enso will offer opportunities 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other.

 

Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

even that year produced one really decent storm in feb.

[SnoSki14]

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. 

Miller B potential? 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other.

 

Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

We've only had one month. And in that month, this year beats 93/94.

WX/PT

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. 

Miller B potential? 

im excited

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

even that year produced one really decent storm in feb.

 

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remember that well and how devastating it was. What others forget however was how quickly the snowpack was rebuilt again and how the ground remained snow covered in some of the forum, I can only speak for myself and those of us in the north, through most of February and March. 
That was a true Thanksgiving to early April winter. 

Oh I remember but seeing the clear landscape before it built again sucked. 

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other.

 

Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

I agree, 93-94 ranks higher for me than 95-96. While 95 had a deep snowpack for Christmas up here and more snow as a season, 93-94 avoided wiping out the pack. There was that storm around Martin Luther King Day that went from snow to ice to rain and near 50 for a few hours but then that arctic front of yore came raging through and froze everything solid. What a winter. 

[BxEngine]

About 500’ visibility this morning with fog over the remaining snow. 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. 

Miller B potential? 

Agree.  Big potential like you saw on the gfs, Euro and EPS.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The original KU list was a subjective list of major northeast storms that Kocin and Ucelliini found impactful and meteorologically interesting and subsequently published and then updated an excellent book on their research. Taking it to the next level they worked to quantity the list by devising a calculation to attempt an estimate of how many people were impacted and how severely they were impacted.  This became NESIS which I understand is now described as a "regional index", whatever that means as it seems to cover 2/3 of the country.

Here are some things that I think should be considered when using "K-U" events to make broader climate associations in the northeast:

1. There is no "KU track".  Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.)  in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation.  Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation.  Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events.

2.  Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU").  Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20).  The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high.  Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way.

3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there.  Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic.  In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on.

4.  I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data.  8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events.  The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods).  In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic.  Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.

 

 

 

An easy way to classify the NESIS storms in the list that I posted going back to 1995-1996 is that they are what is called benchmark storm tracks out near 40°/70°. We live in a part of the country that requires Atlantic moisture in order to achieve our heaviest snowstorms.

When the primary storm track to our west like since 2018-2019, it results in less snow for our area. From 2010 to 2018 the primary storm track was located to our Southeast allowing plenty of Atlantic moisture to result in much heavier snowstorms.

Those coastal storms also got a moisture boost from the Gulf Stream warming about 7° since the 1980s when the major snows were less frequent. The one common denominator in our snowfall since the 1990s has been shorter periods of productive storm tracks for our area.

So in order for our area to reach 25” to 30” of snowfall since then we needed heavy coastal snowstorms. The simple math is that if we get shorter snowy periods, each period needs to be maximized in order for the season to get closer to 25”.

Prior to the 1990s there were several seasons that didn’t get really heavy snowstorms but had extended periods of light to moderate snows. So a series of light to moderate events could get us to close to normal on the season. This hasn’t been the case over the last 30 years.

Every 25”+ season had at least 25” of snow over this period featured at least one 10-20” or 20-30” snowfall event for a portion of the area from EWR to ISP. Some years like 2013 we had a 30-40” single event.

When we have a dominant Northern Stream and storm track close to our area and to our west the ceiling is closer to 4-8” and generally under 10” for most spots like we saw twice this past December. This December had the best maximized southeast moving clipper tracks that portions of our area have ever seen for the month.

We can notice the storm track pattern shifting as we moved into January. It’s more back to recent years through the Great Lakes but not the southward diving clipper tracks. In recent years the maximum snowfall on these tracks have been mostly 1-3” or 2-4” type events and not the multiple 4-8” style events we had in December.

So my guess going forward is that we will need at least one 10-20” maximum accumulation coastal storm in any part of the OKX zones for any of the major sites from EWR to ISP to reach 25”. But even then not all of the sites would be guaranteed to reach 25” like we saw in 2022 when the coastal tracks favored Long Island and not NJ. So more of a necessary but not always sufficient situation. 
 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

huge storm potential