January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still remember the forecast the day before was for 1 to 2 feet for central and south nj and 6 to 10 for nyc. Of course nyc had that much by Sunday afternoon

The 850 low track with that storm was just textbook and it crawled up to just southwest of the benchmark.  The dynamics were off the charts and I don't think (up until that time at least) I had seen a more impressive FOUS output.  VV's were beyond words for 36 hours and all the other parameters were just drool worthy.  I think I have a copy of some of that FOUS data.  If I can dig it out I'll post it later.

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still remember the forecast the day before was for 1 to 2 feet for central and south nj and 6 to 10 for nyc. Of course nyc had that much by Sunday afternoon

models were all south except the Euro-I remember Sat AM they still had us at a miss. By the PM it was 6-12 and winter storm warning.

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models were all south except the Euro-I remember Sat AM they still had us at a miss. By the PM it was 6-12 and winter storm warning.

Saturday 12Z models locked in and never wavered.

[BoulderWX]

GFS has no snow through 384 on it's last several runs and CMC has nothing through 240 -- fun times! 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Happy 30th Anniversary

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. 

 

and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared.

 

we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

[Krs4Lfe]

13 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS has no snow through 384 on it's last several runs and CMC has nothing through 240 -- fun times! 

That's how you know we're down bad. Not just us, but extreme inactivity across the US during peak climo. It's rare to not even see fantasy snow showing up. Either we have a huge flip and a return to storminess towards mid month or we're pushing into some rare territory

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That's how you know we're down bad. Not just us, but extreme inactivity across the US during peak climo. It's rare to not even see fantasy snow showing up. Either we have a huge flip and a return to storminess towards mid month or we're pushing into some rare territory

Once again there is no need to panic for folks that like snowy winters in NYC metro because the overwhelming majority of winters in NYC where we received at least 7 inches of snow in December had normal totals over 25 inches for the season with many much above average - the keyword is patience - also several had low totals in January then had much above totals after January

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[MANDA]

53 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. 

 

and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared.

 

we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

Not to mention that on those side streets that had cars parked on them there is just no place to put all that snow.  Cars were buried for days and if you didn't dig them out quickly you ran the risk of them becoming locked in a glacier...if you did dig them out right away you ran the risk of them getting plowed in.  Never lived in the city but worked there for a time and it always amazed me that in the big storms the side streets were clogged for days.  If you dare moved your car you might not get a parking space again till the thaw came.

[North and West]

Once again there is no need to panic for folks that like snowy winters in NYC metro because the overwhelming majority of winters in NYC where we received at least 7 inches of snow in December had normal totals over 25 inches for the season with many much above average - the keyword is patience - also several had low totals in January then had much above totals after January
monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Another thing is that historically, February is the snowiest month around here.


.

[MANDA]

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016.  Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric.

Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill.

When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined.  Now closer to $550 month on average combined.  Somewhat less during the transition seasons.

Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016.  Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric.

Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill.

When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined.  Now closer to $550 month on average combined.  Somewhat less during the transition seasons.

Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

 

Ours was high last month-Nat Gas cold and price of NG was higher as well likely due to the market seeing the cold month ahead

[NittanyWx]

Afternoon runs starting to really coalesce around building the source back.  This thaw should have a limited timeframe assuming that's right.  Nice to see that around d 10-11 now

 

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016.  Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric.

Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill.

When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined.  Now closer to $550 month on average combined.  Somewhat less during the transition seasons.

Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

 

Mistake 1: moving back here

Mistake 2: NY entered into a Clean Energy agenda and put huge mandates on utility companies to move off gas powered electricity which costs billions and that is being passed on to you thru huge hikes.

Mistake 3: simultaneous with mistake 2, the former governor forced them to close Indian point. This clean energy source provided 25% of New York’s electricity.

 

Long story short, enjoy your bill. It’s gonna be higher next year.

[wxallannj]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

My station precip for 2025 was 33.96".... This was the driest on my record of 45 years. The two previous driest are 37.68" in 2001 and 38.26" in 2016.

My total in Clifton was 37.75"  which was the driest on my record of 52 years.  Previous driest. was 38.84" in 1976, 39.00" in 1985 and 39.45" in 2012

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS has no snow through 384 on it's last several runs and CMC has nothing through 240 -- fun times! 

are you Snowman19's brother?

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Mistake 1: moving back here

Mistake 2: NY entered into a Clean Energy agenda and put huge mandates on utility companies to move off gas powered electricity which costs billions and that is being passed on to you thru huge hikes.

Mistake 3: simultaneous with mistake 2, the former governor forced them to close Indian point. This clean energy source provided 25% of New York’s electricity.

 

Long story short, enjoy your bill. It’s gonna be higher next year.

gas remains low in price. you are paying more because utilities are upgrading pipelines and infrastructure and passing the costs on to you. only about a third of your bill pays for gas, 2/3 pays for other costs. in fact, utilities do not make money on gas, but all this other stuff. source; npr, morning edition, oct 12, 2025.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. 

 

and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared.

 

we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

That’s the storm that really got me into weather as a kid. It’s still my #1 snowstorm personally. It was just amazing from start to end. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. 

 

and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared.

 

we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

My favorite storm of all time.  31" here in Garwood NJ.  It just kept snowing and snowing, and when the intensity dropped off just a smidge, it ramped up some more!!!

[Dark Star]

25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

gas remains low in price. you are paying more because utilities are upgrading pipelines and infrastructure and passing the costs on to you. only about a third of your bill pays for gas, 2/3 pays for other costs. in fact, utilities do not make money on gas, but all this other stuff. source; npr, morning edition, oct 12, 2025.

 

It has gotten complicated.  PSEG sold off a lot of their power plants.  They kept the transmission end of the business.  Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels, and is now renewable.  

[Wannabehippie]

46 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

It has gotten complicated.  PSEG sold off a lot of their power plants.  They kept the transmission end of the business.  Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels, and is now renewable.  

Power plants are expensive to operate, no surprise they sold them off. 
 

 

49 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

My favorite storm of all time.  31" here in Garwood NJ.  It just kept snowing and snowing, and when the intensity dropped off just a smidge, it ramped up some more!!!

IIRC 1996 had snow on the ground for almost all winter. I remember my street being snowpacked, with just ruts where car tires went thru, until late February. This big blizzard was tough to dig out from because of what you mentioned, intensity dropped off a bit, then ramped up more. Even with going out there every couple of hours, it was a lot of back breaking shoveling, just because there was so much of it.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

Power plants are expensive to operate, no surprise they sold them off. 
 

 

IIRC 1996 had snow on the ground for almost all winter. I remember my street being snowpacked, with just ruts where car tires went thru, until late February. This big blizzard was tough to dig out from because of what you mentioned, intensity dropped off a bit, then ramped up more. Even with going out there every couple of hours, it was a lot of back breaking shoveling, just because there was so much of it.

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable.  ????

[IrishRob17]

32 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable.  ????

You are correct, a nice deep snowpack completely wiped out all over the northeast on 1/19-1/20/96. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/wri974252

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable.  ????

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events. 

but further north like in new england it was snow; i think there was a roof collapse but i may be getting it confused with 2003, an almost as impressive storm, though in retrospect it was not as big. it was the second time in my life to see such a storm, bigger than anything in the 70s or 80s....and the storms we would go on to see....i'm getting too old to deal with megastorms anymore, but wouldn't mind a return to a 2014 or even 2021 scenario....

[the_other_guy]

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events. 

Waldbaums roof collapse caused by the wet snow

[NorthShoreWx]

The original KU list was a subjective list of major northeast storms that Kocin and Ucelliini found impactful and meteorologically interesting and subsequently published and then updated an excellent book on their research. Taking it to the next level they worked to quantity the list by devising a calculation to attempt an estimate of how many people were impacted and how severely they were impacted.  This became NESIS which I understand is now described as a "regional index", whatever that means as it seems to cover 2/3 of the country.

Here are some things that I think should be considered when using "K-U" events to make broader climate associations in the northeast:

1. There is no "KU track".  Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.)  in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation.  Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation.  Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events.

2.  Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU").  Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20).  The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high.  Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way.

3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there.  Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic.  In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on.

4.  I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data.  8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events.  The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods).  In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic.  Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.

 

On 1/5/2026 at 6:56 AM, bluewave said:

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent.

Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season.

So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”.

The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

 

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall data for all our major reporting sites including EWR, NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP shows a similar pattern since the mid 90s. Every year that any of those stations reached 25”+ featured at least one NESIS KU scale event.

Since all the stations show the same pattern, it takes the NYC undermeasurement issues out of the equation. I will use all the years since 1995-1996 that Newark reached 25”+ and show the NESIS events since they are reasonably close to NYC and use a professional contract observer.

While the KUs have been necessary, they haven’t always been sufficient for Newark to reach 25”. This was the case in 2022 when Islip was closer to the KU tracks and Newark was a little too far west to go 25”+.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

All 25”+ seasons at Newark since 1995-1996 and KU events

20-21…..45.7”……12-14 to 12-18…Cat 2….1-30 to 2-3 cat 3

17-18……39.4”…….1-3 to 1-5…3-1….Cat 1….Cat 1…3-11…Cat 2….3-20 to 3-22 Cat 1

16-17…….30.0”……1-4 to 1-8….Cat 2….2-9 to 2-10 Cat 1…3-12 to 3-15 Cat 3

15-16…….32.8”…..1-22 to 1-24 Cat 4

14-15……..46.4”…..1-25 to 1-28…Cat 2…1-29 to 2-3…Cat 3…2-8 to 2-10 Cat 1..2-20 to 2-22 Cat 1…3-3 to 3-5…Cat 1

13-14……61.1”…..12-13 to 12-16 Cat 2…12-30 to 1-3….Cat 2…1-29 to 2-4 Cat 3..2-4 to 2-5 Cat 2..2-11 to 2-14 Cat 3

12-13….29.5”…..2-7 to 2-10 Cat 3…3-4 to 3-9 Cat 2

10-11….68.2”….12-24 to 12-28….Cat 3….1-9 to 1-13 Cat 3….1-26 to 1-27 Cat 1

09-10…47.9”…..12-18 to 12-21 Cat 2…2-4 to 2-7 Cat 3….2-9 to 2-11 Cat 3…2-23 to 2-28 Cat 3

08-09…27.1”….1-17 to 1-19 Cat 2…3-1 to 3-3 Cat 1

05-06…..37.9”…..2-12 to 2-13 Cat 3

04-05….43.4”…..1-21 to 1-24 Cat 4…Cat 2

03-04….47.8”….12-14 to 12-16…Cat 2….1-27 to 1-28 Cat 1

02-03…..53.1”….2-6 to 2-8 Cat 1….2-15 to 2-18 Cat 4….3-3 to 3-6 Cat 1

00-01……39.3”….12-30 to 12-31…Cat 1…..1-19 to 1-21 Cat 1

95-96….78.4”…..1-6 to 1-8…Cat 5 with numerous other heavy coastal benchmark snowstorms

 

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events. 

We had 2" here before the rain, but IIRC DC had all snow and another 8".  Just unlucky at the end of a very good week.

[IrishRob17]

40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events. 

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/12-Jan-96.html

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

1. There is no "KU track".  Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.)  in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation.  Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation.  Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events.

 

3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there.  Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic.  In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on.

Some examples:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

2.  Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU").  Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20).  The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high.  Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way.

4.  I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data.  8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events.  The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods).  In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic.  Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.

Here is the local data that I looked at:

Smithtown NESIS Outcomes by season
Winter	Total Seasonal Snowfall	# of NESIS storms	Snowfall from NESIS events	Net Snowfall excluding NESIS
1995-1996	94.9	1	22.3	72.6
1996-1997	17.3	1	3.0	14.3
1997-1998	4.3	0	0.0	4.3
1998-1999	25.6	0	0.0	25.6
1999-2000	16.3	1	5.3	11.0
2000-2001	50.0	2	15.0	35.0
2001-2002	7.3	0	0.0	7.3
2002-2003	62.5	4	33.5	29.0
2003-2004	56.2	2	18.4	37.8
2004-2005	62.9	2	21.6	41.3
2005-2006	24.2	1	13.3	10.9
2006-2007	11.7	2	6.1	5.6
2007-2008	14.0	0	0.0	14.0
2008-2009	38.2	3	21.9	16.3
2009-2010	60.1	5	43.6	16.5
2010-2011	60.8	4	43.1	17.7
2011-2012	4.5	1	0.0	4.5
2012-2013	46.0	2	33.9	12.1
2013-2014	68.0	6	47.1	20.9
2014-2015	67.0	7	35.7	31.3
2015-2016	38.2	1	17.5	20.7
2016-2017	41.6	3	26.0	15.6
2017-2018	65.1	5	39.8	25.3
2018-2019	21.7	2	4.8	16.9
2019-2020	9.4	0	0.0	9.4
2020-2021	41.9	2	23.3	18.6
2021-2022	36.2	3	25.5	10.7
2022-2023	8.6	2	0.0	8.6

For this period, our average annual snowfall was 37.7", of which 17.9" (47.5%) fell during NESIS ranked storms.