26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Snowman19 just said nothing supports even 6-8 inches there …let alone a foot plus amounts. But ya..let’s get some of that up this way..please. 

I mean plenty of guidance supports 6-8" .  I like 4-8/6-10 to give more of a range.  We haven't had things break our way in a while, so it's best to stay conservative.  Right now north west NYC metro is favored.. 

[weatherwiz]

Where the best of heaviest snow occurs max totals should be upwards of 7-8-9" or so. 10 might be tough just because of how fast the system is moving but it will probably dump 2" per hour under the band for a time.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I mean plenty of guidance supports 6-8" .  I like 4-8/6-10 to give more of a range.  We haven't had things break our way in a while, so it's best to stay conservative.  Right now north west NYC metro is favored.. 

100% agreed. I’d love to grab 4”…but 6” would really feel good. But conservative is the best approach. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Where the best of heaviest snow occurs max totals should be upwards of 7-8-9" or so. 10 might be tough just because of how fast the system is moving but it will probably dump 2" per hour under the band for a time.

You gotta check out modeled soundings for HPN under that mega band on HRRR

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Man thats a Major NYC metro snowstorm, lets pull that NE please.. Verbatim would be 12-17"+ in the jack stripe , what a weenie run

The sleet is going to pound NYC in this set up. People always doubt the NAM… until they don’t 

[radarman]

Catamount should be skiing well on Saturday.  It's been pretty rare for the Taconics to maybe jack a snowstorm in recent years.  Possibly an early season event like 3-4 years ago that rained on most of us.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You gotta check out modeled soundings for HPN under that mega band on HRRR

Holy shit..that might rip 2.5-3" per hour with thunder  

[KTBFFH1905]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

100% agreed. I’d love to grab 4”…but 6” would really feel good. But conservative is the best approach. 

We are up in Jay,VT and would love to come home to 4-6 after getting spoiled up here with snow conditions.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

From Tomer.. His model ratio calculates 4-5" per hour over SENY and NNJ in that band lmao 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From Tomer.. His model ratio calculates 4-5" per hour over SENY and NNJ in that band lmao 

Explains that jackpot of totals. I don't know if 4-5" per hour is happening but that would be absurd lol. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

Catamount should be skiing well on Saturday.  It's been pretty rare for the Taconics to maybe jack a snowstorm in recent years.  Possibly an early season event like 3-4 years ago that rained on most of us.  

I remember they had a stupid run in like 2008 I think, can’t recall what year it was. But we went to Hunter Mtn, It was like 60” in a week the hills were barely steep enough for all the powder they had. Lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NYC is going to seem like Stowe mountain compared to here by Sunday.

 

wild times. Sad times 

[Ginx snewx]

Huge expansion on Hrrr. Model is totally unstable until 18 hrs out. Tosses for now 

[Damage In Tolland]

Take em NE

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I remember they had a stupid run in like 2008 I think, can’t recall what year it was. But we went to Hunter Mtn, It was like 60” in a week the hills were barely steep enough for all the powder they had. Lol

Was it maybe February 2010? That was an insane storm with NYC getting 20" of snow but it was pouring in upstate NY just east of the Catskills. 

I went to Belleayre that week and they got 63 inches or so (I think Plattekill topped 6 feet). 

[weatherwiz]

NAM coming in hot and heavy. that is a crushing even through Hartford. Hefty fronto band

[CoastalWx]

Nice hit almost to

kevin on nam

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice hit almost to

kevin on nam

Nam Hammers

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From Tomer.. His model ratio calculates 4-5" per hour over SENY and NNJ in that band lmao 

0.0% chance that happens 

[mob1]

Pretty decent shift south on the NAM

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Was it maybe February 2010? That was an insane storm with NYC getting 20" of snow but it was pouring in upstate NY just east of the Catskills. 

I went to Belleayre that week and they got 63 inches or so (I think Plattekill topped 6 feet). 

Yup, must have been

[CoastalWx]

There’s a ton of warm air into this. 850-700 fronto seems pretty far north. As long as dry air doesn’t kill it, you could argue a good band into CT maybe even near Kevin. Hopefully a little CJ here. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice hit almost to

kevin on nam

Called the hartford jack this run

[weatherwiz]

Is the NAM starting to pick up on where that fronto band will traverse? But you can see with this one...its essentially where that fronto band occurs. Outside of that band precip is pretty meager. The cutoff is going to be wild

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

0.0% chance that happens 

I feel like those are modeled every decent storm, then fade quick as storm starts, models are more weenies that us.. They happen but are very rare ..

[UnitedWx]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the Herpes yet. And yeah, this has the look of a super sharp cutoff 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the Herpes yet. And yeah, this has the look of a super sharp cutoff 

I’d take some herpes.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a ton of warm air into this. 850-700 fronto seems pretty far north. As long as dry air doesn’t kill it, you could argue a good band into CT maybe even near Kevin. Hopefully a little CJ here. 

Yeah I was looking at mid levels and there’s an area that looks like it would be pounding but it’s north of the good QPF. Wonder if there is an undermodeled death band for a few hours near that northern line. 

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM leading the charge unfortunately. How many times over the years have we discounted its warm push only to be burned . If I’ve learned anything it’s that 

[SouthCoastMA]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a ton of warm air into this. 850-700 fronto seems pretty far north. As long as dry air doesn’t kill it, you could argue a good band into CT maybe even near Kevin. Hopefully a little CJ here. 

I mentioned that a couple days ago. maybe someone pulls a bonus fluffy inch or two along typical spots