Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.

[Mikeymac5306]

 Safe to get this started as NAM is in range and 18Z GFS rolling.  Happy Tracking! 

[ChescoWx]

GFS likely continues to miss the warm nose at 700mb 

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

GFS likely continues to miss the warm nose at 700mb 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

GFS likely continues to miss the warm nose at 700mb 

So, 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain Let's Go!!

[MJO812]

Euro is great

[ChescoWx]

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

So, 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain Let's Go!!

I kind of see it that way 3" to 5" of snow/sleet and then freezing rain....not a big fan of ZR!

[ChescoWx]

18z Euro trended much worse with more ZR less snow and less IP....this would be a not great solution!

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is great

for Brooklyn yes....for the focus of this forum....not so much!

[MJO812]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

for Brooklyn yes....for the focus of this forum....not so much!

For NJ im talking about 

[Duca892]

Bleh looks more and more like a slop storm. Legit hate these. All I can think of is “Man what if this was all snow”

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For NJ im talking about 

Only North Jersey would see significant snow b4 any change to IP or ZR - not the area of most of the posters here

[mattinpa]

Still time for the colder solutions. Even I dislike ice. Hope the block holds.

[penndotguy]

Welp hope this early storm thread is a jinx, and we miss this whole mess all I see is brief thump of snow right to IP/ZR not a fan of either. 

[ChescoWx]

In my humble view I suspect what the RRFS (soon to replace the NAM) is showing is what may happen. A solid 2" to 5" of Snow/IP and then ZR on top. 

The below is through 1am Saturday just as the change to ZR is occuring to the NE of Chester County. Almost 2" of sleet at KMQS as part of their 4" Snow/IP total.