December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is the exact type of event that we’d get to go from what it is now into a low end warning in the mid 2010s. Haven’t had any such luck recently. There is a path to a solid advisory, no matter how small it is 

Yeah it's been a tough stretch for the region and this hobby.

I posted last night... I remember the forum days of all-hands-on-deck war-room analysis for an impending KU, and now I'm micro-dissecting 1-2" vs. 2-3". We're famished for a region-wide larger event. Dec 20 2024 was the last positive bust for MBY (Boston suburbs) in years, and it was ~5.5".

But easy to forget (maybe because the unseasonal cold) that it's very early and there's lots of winter to go.

[CoastalWx]

I’d like to see Reggie hold. I know it’s more aggressive.

[wxsniss]

On this 18z NAM: some decent fronto scrapes the south coast... could see upwards of 3-5" right at the water if that occurs. Let's hold or continue these ticks in the next 12 hours...

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s more about the arm of confluence. As long as that can lift north it will help bring that snow shield north. But it’s only going to shift so much. I’d like it to shift more since I think some dry air will try to work into this area.

Is it a scooter shit streak…they never behave like we need them to. 

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s gonna be a sneaky northern fronto zone well north of south coast that we’ll see posts like “I was expecting 1” and got 4.5” of fluff “

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My, how we've missed you-

Bretts an OG as much as he won't admit it.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s gonna be a sneaky northern fronto zone well north of south coast that we’ll see posts like “I was expecting 1” and got 4.5” of fluff “

That’s assuming it comes more north. Because right now I don’t see that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s assuming it comes more north. Because right now I don’t see that. 

These always have them. 
3K NAM improved as well 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s assuming it comes more north. Because right now I don’t see that. 

We’re also now at the point that if this even so much nudges south, forget it. Congrats to Falmouth on an inch in that case 

[bristolri_wx]

[CoastalWx]

RRFS is a warning event pretty much on S coast lol.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM looks a hair worse through 30 to me 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM looks a hair worse through 30 to me 

thought the TPV looked better tilted at 36 to me..but we'll see how it pans out. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

thought the TPV looked better tilted at 36 to me..but we'll see how it pans out. 

I’m at 42 and it does look a bit better oriented 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m at 42 and it does look a bit better oriented 

Should hold serve, at least? Although the mid-levels look a hair south despite the better tilt

Yeah, cut back slightly past the canal. A better oriented TPV won't matter if its being shunted further SE faster. 

[Zeus]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bretts an OG as much as he won't admit it.

I feel like one must not only actually be and remain a New Englander but also pay the tithe that is spending dry summer days talking about nothing here in order to have that kind of status.

Always a Mid-Atlantic transplant from the start, the reality is that at best I've become one of those "church, but only on Christmas and Easter" types or its equivalent for this forum.

But, when it's snowing up there, and raining where I am -- as it so often is -- I look to the northeast of me, which is where you all are now, and give a contented nod. I hope you feel it. Do you feel it?!

[weathafella]

45 minutes ago, Zeus said:

You're slant-sticking my number, here. That's all I'll say; a lady never reveals her age.

Recalculating…40?

 

[ORH_wxman]

Rgem looked a little skimpier but pretty close to 12z. 
 

Icon came north like the NAM did so that was the two most suppressed models at 12z coming north and the juiciest one slightly nudging S (or at least less QPF)…so there is some model convergence going on. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Should hold serve, at least? Although the mid-levels look a hair south despite the better tilt

Yeah, cut back slightly past the canal. 

Yeah definitely looks worse than 12z, especially SE Mass, good never real get past canal

[bristolri_wx]

Did the person who does snowfall map ranges at BOX get shit-canned during the shut down?  The ranges are noticably odd this year.  Never saw 0" for the low range in the past with any number other than 1" as the top end of that range.  Usually it was shown as < 1".Still appreciate the maps are published but it just makes my brain hurt to see things like 1-6"...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem looked a little skimpier but pretty close to 12z. 
 

Icon came north like the NAM did so that was the two most suppressed models at 12z coming north and the juiciest one slightly nudging S (or at least less QPF)…so there is some model convergence going on. 

Too bad, there’s some stronger stuff just offshore on the RGEM, talking 50-75 miles to get a solid advisory event for many.

But it def regressed here. 4-5” at 12z became 2-3” at 18z

[Zeus]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Recalculating…40?

 

As of this past August. I don't feel it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Too bad, there’s some stronger stuff just offshore on the RGEM, talking 50-75 miles to get a solid advisory event for many.

But it def regressed here. 4-5” at 12z became 2-3” at 18z

We’ll need slight nudges north almost every cycle from here on out to get solid advisory amounts more than 25 miles north of the south coast. Your area might not need quite as many nudges. 
 

 

[weatherwiz]

Figured why not. Anyways, unless you're close to the llvl fronto, I don't see much in the way to assist with QPF blossoming moving poleward from the developing llvl fronto band. As was stated, there could be some dry air concerns on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield and with some strengthening evidence for a more pronounced llvl fronto band, I do think there could be some room for subsidence skunking. I could see 3-5" across Long Island and probably some amounts in that range too possibly along the south coast. It's really the south coast at this point which has room for anything exceeding 2". Where stronger lift can occur will benefit from the ratios. But overall I see a pretty bland looking precipitation area outside of right where the llvl fronto is

 

[weathafella]

29 minutes ago, Zeus said:

As of this past August. I don't feel it.

You don’t look it!

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS should be an improvement over 12z

[weathafella]

Gfs looks decent to me

[CoastalWx]

Gfs definitely better. Decent event s coast.

[SouthCoastMA]

looks closer to euro now, maybe a hair worse. wish we could buy another tick or two with that stuff just off shore

[wxsniss]

If there's any takeaway from 18z suite, it's that this is not continuing to slip away into nothing (which was a distinct possibility on yesterday's guidance). It will be meager, but there will be accumulation.