Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hello everybody,

 

I think it's time to think positive and see where this snow potential for this coming Sunday takes us.

It has been a miss, flurries, to a decent size potential. Potentially a light to moderate event. 

Discuss

[NEG NAO]

Good luck with your first winter storm thread 

[MJO812]

Cmc

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc

I think some areas will receive a few inches while others receive only a coating and this will turn into a nowcasting event and it's impossible to predict which area of the region will receive what amounts until the storm is approaching the region and in progress probably

[Franklin0529]

Going down to Atlantic City from Friday -monday. Maybe I'll see couple inches down there 

[jm1220]

Given how chaotic/fast the pattern is we won’t know more until tomorrow evening probably. Hopefully we can thread the needle and have a decent enough event but it will be a small window with a vigorous enough shortwave taking a good track. Lots of ways it can go wrong. 

[Physicsteve]

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

[SnowGoose69]

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend. 

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

[WeatherGeek2025]

clown map from the canadian for Sunday

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

[yoda]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

Pivotalweather.com has it every 6 hours btw... as in 96/102/108.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging 

Closer than 0z

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

In terms of surface weather it's mostly a miss with snow showers and C-1" with more in SNJ. But I agree aloft it's the closest I've seen in a few days to a bigger solution with the PV dropping into the trof and amplifying it almost to a neutral tilt.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms.  It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast.  Thats been a tendency now for a few years.  For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period.  Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models.  The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

[MJO812]

AI Euro 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think the banner of snowstorm potential is a little over the top. I'm rooting for it of course, but I wouldn't call a 2 to 4 inch possibility, and that's if everything works out, snowstorm potential. Maybe something like light to moderate event possibility would be a better banner. 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think the banner of snowstorm potential is a little over the top. I'm rooting for it of course, but I wouldn't call a 2 to 4 inch possibility, and that's if everything works out, snowstorm potential. Maybe something like light to moderate event possibility would be a better banner. 

Really? Have you considered that NYC hasn't gotten a 4" storm since 2022? LOL.

[Franklin0529]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think the banner of snowstorm potential is a little over the top. I'm rooting for it of course, but I wouldn't call a 2 to 4 inch possibility, and that's if everything works out, snowstorm potential. Maybe something like light to moderate event possibility would be a better banner. 

You don't live in Buffalo. 

[Krs4Lfe]

28 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Really? Have you considered that NYC hasn't gotten a 4" storm since 2022? LOL.

And pursuant to the name of your account, central park under measures everything so I doubt this would get anywhere near 4”

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

56 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Really? Have you considered that NYC hasn't gotten a 4" storm since 2022? LOL.

Have you considered there have been 196 snowfalls of 6" or more since NYC has been keeping records (1870). My guess would be there have been at least 400 such storms over that time frame over 4 inches. My point, it's not uncommon.

Even with the recent snow drought down there in the tropics of the UHI and its surroundings I wouldn't call 2-4 inches a snowstorm, but that's me. You can call it the Incoming blizzard of 2025 if you want, whatever makes you happy.

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Have you considered there have been 196 snowfalls of 6" or more since NYC has been keeping records (1870). My guess would be there have been at least 400 such storms over that time frame over 4 inches. My point, it's not uncommon.

Even with the recent snow drought down there in the tropics of the UHI and its surroundings I wouldn't call 2-4 inches a snowstorm, but that's me. You can call it the Incoming blizzard of 2025 if you want, whatever makes you happy.

Has got nothing to do with UHI actually. Long Island's been in just as much as a snow drought. UHI isn't a factor during snowstorms cause the snow rapidly cools the surface.

[MJO812]

Gfs is a miss

[psv88]

Gfs leading the way again. This threat is on life support 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gfs leading the way again. This threat is on life support 

why do you think the GFS is leading the way ? Its a crappy model that gets lucky once in a while - unreal you would say an event is on life support 3 -4 days out ............

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a miss

Just IMO, Sunday is going to turn into glorified arctic FROPA. I think the setup is not good for a coastal storm…positively tilted trough, raging fast flow, progressive, forward lean PNA ridge, no “traffic”/block in the Atlantic to slow the flow down and cause a jam so a wave can form, deepen and come up the coast. Snow showers, squalls, etc…..coatings/dustings up to an inch? Sure. A coastal low forming, slowing down, deepening and coming up the benchmark? I’m not seeing it. If I’m wrong, tear me to bits on Monday morning 

[cleetussnow]

Plenty of time for wafflng and whiffing.  Reelaaaax.  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just IMO, Sunday is going to turn into glorified arctic FROPA. I think the setup is not good for a coastal storm…positively tilted trough, raging fast flow, progressive, forward lean PNA ridge, no “traffic”/block in the Atlantic to slow the flow down and cause a jam so a wave can form, deepen and come up the coast. Snow showers, squalls, etc…..coatings/dustings up to an inch? Sure. A coastal low forming, slowing down deepening and coming up I-95? I’m not seeing it. If I’m wrong, tear me to bits on Monday morning 

Who was saying a coastal storm was going to develop with significant accumulations ? 1-3 some areas 3 or 4 is the max potential for this set up with C -1 in some areas.......C-1 is also possible in most areas - will be a now casting event IMO