Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr

Getting better

[jm1220]

There's been that weenie enhanced snow area in central and eastern Suffolk. Maybe some enhancement from the Sound and from the somewhat blossoming snow shield headed east. Port Jeff to Riverhead might be a good zone for someone to get 5".

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's been that weenie enhanced snow area in central and eastern Suffolk. Maybe some enhancement from the Sound and from the somewhat blossoming snow shield headed east. Port Jeff to Riverhead might be a good zone for someone to get 5".

Agreed. I think the floor for all of Suffolk is 3”, maybe someone north fork gets 6” if everything falls into place. 

[Dan76]

On 12/10/2025 at 5:04 PM, psv88 said:

Gfs leading the way again. This threat is on life support 

[MJO812]

Nam is about an inch for NYC

[Stormlover74]

Seems like nam and hrrr are picking up on dry air coming down from the north

[MJO812]

Fv3 finally caved

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like nam and hrrr are picking up on dry air coming down from the north

Either that or the Nam is out to lunch . The model is so weird. Sometimes it nails storms and sometimes it does whacky things.

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

yes. get your cameras ready. it may be the only snow of the season; if you celebrate holidays and have decorations, it is a rare chance to get great seasonal photos; make a card. 

The craziest thing is that before 2020 I would have laughed at a statement like this. But after the near complete shutouts in 2020 and 2023, something like this could actually happen. 

[wthrmn654]

42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. I think the floor for all of Suffolk is 3”, maybe someone north fork gets 6” if everything falls into place. 

So many food jokes today lol ends with the north fork winning the pie!

[sussexcountyobs]

I'm wondering how long till the posts of winter cancelled, put a fork in it, maybe next year will be better, because of climate change, soon NYC will see no snow. Etc., etc., etc.. Blah blah blah. I say. If CP doesn't see more than 2" Saturday night.  Then we get a few days, or even a week of a warm up. We will see those posts.

[TJW014]

Freehold, NJ will be the jackpot spot. 

[MJO812]

RRFS is really nice

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Freehold, NJ will be the jackpot spot. 

Seems like that could be another weenie spot based on the hi-res so far, maybe just E of Philly to Monmouth. There might be one there and on the N end of the steady snow shield which is where the mid level lift/fronto might be best. 

[MJO812]

Rgem continues to look good

[jm1220]

RGEM held serve or got slightly better I think. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM held serve or got slightly better I think. 

Yep slightly better . 

[203whiteout]

Yep slightly better . 

lol these posts are so biased on “location”. RGEM got much worse for northern fringe areas and south coast of New England. All models seem to be catching onto the idea of a very sharp cutoff to the north. Seems like the southern New England snow drought continues at least into January. Enjoy it down in LI and Jersey


.

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

lol these posts are so biased on “location”. RGEM got much worse for northern fringe areas and south coast of New England. All models seem to be catching onto the idea of a very sharp cutoff to the north. Seems like the southern New England snow drought continues at least into January. Enjoy it down in LI and Jersey


.

"Much worse"

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

lol these posts are so biased on “location”. RGEM got much worse for northern fringe areas and south coast of New England. All models seem to be catching onto the idea of a very sharp cutoff to the north. Seems like the southern New England snow drought continues at least into January. Enjoy it down in LI and Jersey


.

I wouldn't say it got "much worse". I'd say it largely held serve. Small fluctuations are really just noise. The setup is that a trough is diving SE and a shortwave is developing a coastal low that's headed NE quickly. It's not a setup for heavy snow anywhere and the diving SE trough is bringing in dry air. So I do believe there'll be a zone where there's a lot of virga because of dry air coming SE and in any given location there won't be snow for more than 6 hours or so. The S coast of CT is in the game for a light event still. 

Edit-and new GFS looks a little better for your region. Went from 1.5" to 2.1" at BDR. At this point we're dealing with noise for the most part. 

[203whiteout]

"Much worse"

Yeah, this map doesn’t show the cut off as much as the map I saw on pivotal. I guess it’s just picking up the main precip shield being more consolidated than originally thought which makes sense. South coast of CT has done well in events like these but the north shore of LI is where I would I want to be for a 6” Jack


.

[MJO812]

Gfs is better 

[MJO812]

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

Yeah, this map doesn’t show the cut off as much as the map I saw on pivotal. I guess it’s just picking up the main precip shield being more consolidated than originally thought which makes sense. South coast of CT has done well in events like these but the north shore of LI is where I would I want to be for a 6” Jack


.

15 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

RGEM got much worse for northern fringe areas and south coast of New England.

???

[Blizzardo]

7 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

"Puking Snow" is one of my favorites....for 1/2 inch an hour

I like " it's absolute ripping outside"... 

[203whiteout]

???

You seem confused? lol. This run was not good for Fringe areas. Period. Not expecting more than an inch or two max on CT coast


.

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I like " it's absolute ripping outside"... 

I remember being on one of these boards a long (long) time ago during a big storm, when I had just moved into my house, reporting that I'd been hearing periodic thundersnow over and over, when in reality it was my furnace kicking in.  Cringeworthy before that was a common term.

[SnowGoose69]

00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne

[RU848789]

Almost every model showed improvement at 0Z for almost everyone near/along 95 from DC to NYC and even NW of 95 and the NBM shows NYC with >3" for the first time (3.1") and the NWS has responded with upping their snowfall map across the board for most, as well as increasing their WWA's to 3-5" for many areas from 95 to the coast and adding in quite a few counties for 2-4" of snow well NW of 95 and N of 78. It's been a good evening. Here is the updated NWS map and the latest NBM and the NWS WWAs. Getting excited.