Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS now essentially has moved completely south of the M/D line. 

Yes it has.  Also, it won't be talked about much because it's a pretty meager event and we were never fully in the crosshairs but today was a pretty big miss by the GFS, one in which it didn't cave to the other models until inside of 24 hours. 

As far as Monday, I still feel pretty good about where we are.  0z GFS wasn't as far south and I don't put as much stock in the off-hour runs.  Other models also still have varying degrees of support.  WPC still has us in the heart of its precip map so that's good.  Much to be determined the next couple days but isn't it fun when we're entering March and have to worry about Virginia and North Carolina stealing our snow haha.

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our 41st consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 9th longest stretch and 12th overall streak since 1894. We could see some flurries late today across more southern areas. High temperatures today are a few degrees below normal around 40 degrees but a nice warm up on the way both Friday and especially Saturday with highs in the mid 50's. A strong cold front slides through on Saturday night and we will turn sharply colder by Sunday with highs back down into the 30's. Snow chances look to increase early next week but timing and amounts way too early to nail down.

[Jns2183]

March 1960
The coldest March in Harrisburg history
Date High (°F) Low (°F)
03/01/1960 32.0 20.0
03/02/1960 33.0 18.0
03/03/1960 28.0 19.0
03/04/1960 24.0 18.0
03/05/1960 25.0 18.0
03/06/1960 31.0 18.0
03/07/1960 25.0 11.0
03/08/1960 29.0 12.0
03/09/1960 31.0 13.0
03/10/1960 33.0 19.0
03/11/1960 32.0 12.0
03/12/1960 35.0 17.0
03/13/1960 35.0 18.0
03/14/1960 37.0 23.0
03/15/1960 39.0 21.0
03/16/1960 37.0 20.0
03/17/1960 38.0 30.0
03/18/1960 43.0 33.0
03/19/1960 41.0 28.0
03/20/1960 42.0 29.0
03/21/1960 37.0 28.0
03/22/1960 39.0 25.0
03/23/1960 37.0 23.0
03/24/1960 45.0 27.0
03/25/1960 32.0 22.0
03/26/1960 43.0 23.0
03/27/1960 59.0 29.0
03/28/1960 72.0 41.0
03/29/1960 67.0 42.0
03/30/1960 65.0 46.0
03/31/1960 61.0 52.0

MARCH 1960 SNOW & PRECIPITATION BREAKDOWN

DAYS WITH SNOW RECORDED
Date Precip Snow Ratio (S:L)
---------------------------------------------
03/03/1960 1.05" 10.5" (10.0:1)
03/04/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/05/1960 0.01" 0.1" (10.0:1)
03/07/1960 0.02" 0.6" (30.0:1)
03/08/1960 0.01" 0.4" (40.0:1)
03/10/1960 0.09" 1.8" (20.0:1)
03/16/1960 0.26" 3.2" (12.3:1)
03/17/1960 0.44" 3.0" (6.8:1)
03/21/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/22/1960 0.18" 2.0" (11.1:1)
03/24/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/26/1960 0.04" 0.4" (10.0:1)
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal: 2.13" 22.6" (10.6:1)
Snow Day Count: 12


DAYS WITH NO SNOW RECORDED
Date Precip
-------------------------
03/01/1960 0.00"
03/02/1960 0.00"
03/06/1960 0.00"
03/09/1960 0.00"
03/11/1960 0.00"
03/12/1960 0.00"
03/13/1960 0.00"
03/14/1960 0.00"
03/15/1960 0.00"
03/18/1960 0.00"
03/19/1960 0.00"
03/20/1960 0.00"
03/23/1960 0.00"
03/25/1960 0.00"
03/27/1960 0.00"
03/28/1960 0.00"
03/29/1960 0.00"
03/30/1960 0.32"
03/31/1960 0.07"
-------------------------
Subtotal: 0.39"


MONTHLY TOTALS
Total Precipitation: 2.52"
Total Snowfall: 22.6"


1960 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS (1 = Coldest)

Month | Avg Temp | Rank (Coldest)
----------------------------------------
March | 31.7F | 1/126
April | 56.7F | 118/126
May | 59.9F | 25/125
June | 70.5F | 45/125
July | 72.9F | 4/125
August | 75.0F | 82/125


Watching MU Twitter as this unfolded would have been a guilty pleasure

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[Jns2183]

It was before my time but does anyone here have a clear memory of the summer of 1982?

SUMMER 1982 DAILY WEATHER LOG (HARRISBURG, PA)

JUNE 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
06/01 | 73 | 63 | 68.0 | 2.36
06/02 | 75 | 55 | 65.0 | 0.00
06/03 | 66 | 52 | 59.0 | 0.74
06/04 | 65 | 56 | 60.5 | 0.02
06/05 | 60 | 56 | 58.0 | 1.18
06/06 | 64 | 55 | 59.5 | 0.00
06/07 | 75 | 54 | 64.5 | 0.00
06/08 | 73 | 53 | 63.0 | 0.00
06/09 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00
06/10 | 62 | 55 | 58.5 | 0.16
06/11 | 63 | 58 | 60.5 | 0.26
06/12 | 62 | 53 | 57.5 | 0.19
06/13 | 54 | 50 | 52.0 | 1.47
06/14 | 76 | 51 | 63.5 | 0.00
06/15 | 81 | 51 | 66.0 | 0.00
06/16 | 83 | 65 | 74.0 | 1.48
06/17 | 78 | 64 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/18 | 79 | 57 | 68.0 | 0.00
06/19 | 81 | 59 | 70.0 | 0.00
06/20 | 73 | 54 | 63.5 | 0.00
06/21 | 80 | 57 | 68.5 | 0.00
06/22 | 77 | 55 | 66.0 | 0.04
06/23 | 72 | 53 | 62.5 | 0.00
06/24 | 74 | 50 | 62.0 | 0.00
06/25 | 80 | 50 | 65.0 | 0.00
06/26 | 84 | 58 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/27 | 82 | 60 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/28 | 85 | 65 | 75.0 | 0.00
06/29 | 80 | 68 | 74.0 | 0.17
06/30 | 78 | 59 | 68.5 | 0.05

JUNE 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 8.12" (Max 1-Day: 2.36")
Means: High 73.8F | Low 56.4F | Avg 65.1F
Max Values: High 85F | Low 68F | Avg 75.0F
Min Values: High 54F | Low 50F | Avg 52.0F

JULY 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
07/01 | 75 | 52 | 63.5 | 0.00
07/02 | 78 | 50 | 64.0 | 0.00
07/03 | 62 | 58 | 60.0 | 0.52
07/04 | 78 | 55 | 66.5 | 0.00
07/05 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00
07/06 | 81 | 56 | 68.5 | 0.00
07/07 | 86 | 64 | 75.0 | 0.00
07/08 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.07
07/09 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.00
07/10 | 86 | 66 | 76.0 | 0.00
07/11 | 81 | 69 | 75.0 | 0.00
07/12 | 85 | 63 | 74.0 | 0.00
07/13 | 85 | 59 | 72.0 | 0.00
07/14 | 91 | 63 | 77.0 | 0.00
07/15 | 88 | 72 | 80.0 | 0.00
07/16 | 90 | 70 | 80.0 | 0.00
07/17 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/18 | 92 | 75 | 83.5 | 0.00
07/19 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/20 | 84 | 71 | 77.5 | 0.08
07/21 | 84 | 63 | 73.5 | 0.00
07/22 | 88 | 59 | 73.5 | 0.00
07/23 | 87 | 70 | 78.5 | 0.00
07/24 | 86 | 62 | 74.0 | 0.00
07/25 | 91 | 62 | 76.5 | 0.00
07/26 | 93 | 70 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/27 | 88 | 73 | 80.5 | 0.64
07/28 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.92
07/29 | 83 | 62 | 72.5 | 0.00
07/30 | 74 | 63 | 68.5 | 0.01
07/31 | 83 | 66 | 74.5 | 0.66

JULY 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 2.90" (Max 1-Day: 0.92")
Means: High 84.2F | Low 64.5F | Avg 74.4F
Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F
Min Values: High 62F | Low 50F | Avg 60.0F

AUGUST 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
08/01 | 83 | 64 | 73.5 | 0.00
08/02 | 84 | 64 | 74.0 | 0.38
08/03 | 82 | 63 | 72.5 | 0.00
08/04 | 86 | 65 | 75.5 | 0.57
08/05 | 90 | 72 | 81.0 | 0.00
08/06 | 82 | 69 | 75.5 | 0.00
08/07 | 81 | 67 | 74.0 | 0.00
08/08 | 83 | 72 | 77.5 | 0.00
08/09 | 85 | 71 | 78.0 | 0.64
08/10 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.00
08/11 | 72 | 61 | 66.5 | 0.18
08/12 | 78 | 57 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/13 | 76 | 54 | 65.0 | 0.00
08/14 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/15 | 83 | 56 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/16 | 85 | 58 | 71.5 | 0.00
08/17 | 85 | 62 | 73.5 | 0.18
08/18 | 79 | 59 | 69.0 | 0.00
08/19 | 84 | 55 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/20 | 81 | 61 | 71.0 | 0.08
08/21 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00
08/22 | 70 | 50 | 60.0 | 0.00
08/23 | 74 | 58 | 66.0 | 0.04
08/24 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.00
08/25 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.38
08/26 | 82 | 57 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/27 | 71 | 64 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/28 | 74 | 56 | 65.0 | 0.00
08/29 | 70 | 46 | 58.0 | 0.00
08/30 | 75 | 59 | 67.0 | 0.00
08/31 | 82 | 61 | 71.5 | 0.02

AUGUST 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 2.47" (Max 1-Day: 0.64")
Means: High 80.2F | Low 60.8F | Avg 70.5F
Max Values: High 92F | Low 72F | Avg 81.0F
Min Values: High 70F | Low 46F | Avg 58.0F

SUMMER 1982 TOTAL SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 13.49" (Max 1-Day: 2.36")
Means: High 79.5F | Low 60.6F | Avg 70.0F
Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F
Min Values: High 54F | Low 46F | Avg 52.0F

SUMMER 1982 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY (DAYS)

HIGH TEMPERATURES
Period | ----------------------------------------------
JUNE | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0
JULY | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 7
AUGUST | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 1
----------------------------------------------
SUMMER | 1 | 8 | 28 | 47 | 8


LOW TEMPERATURES
Period | -----------------------------------------
JUNE | 0 | 24 | 6 | 0
JULY | 0 | 8 | 14 | 9
AUGUST | 1 | 13 | 14 | 3
-----------------------------------------
SUMMER | 1 | 45 | 34 | 12


Imagine only 12 nights with a low above 70 and 8 days of 90's

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[canderson]

Sound like the first half of March will be AN temp wise. 

[Voyager]

43 in the Tamaqua backyard at 10:30am. Even warmer here in Allentown. Hopefully we get a full sunny day today. That way, all of the old snowpack will be gone before anything next week materializes.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just read a comment from MillvilleWx in the MA thread that expectations need to be in check for early next week - top end amounts will be in the 2-4" range at best, and that's for those who are in the bullseye. He admitted he's not invested in it and he is moving on to spring. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Sound like the first half of March will be AN temp wise. 

"Feels" like spring is imminent based on the vibe of the thread. Posts are slowing down noticeably. TBD if we get something later in March. 

[WmsptWx]

I am ready to call it a winter. I'll grade it a B. 

 

It was winter, temps wise. I don't believe we torched once after Thanksgiving and I'll consider next week's blow torching the announcement of Spring. Had some pretty significant cold. Temps get an A. 

Precip gets a C. Being in the valley, I believe we have fallen short of everybody around, mostly due to a very, very dry December and early January. 

 

Really, really want a strong severe thunderstorm season and none of this "40 and rain" until June nonsense. 

[MAG5035]

This one’s for you @Voyagerhaha. Once we route out the lingering cold later next week after whatever happens Monday, guidance shifts high pressure to a Bermuda high positioning and that would likely usher in the warmest air we’ve seen since about October. Euro/GFS both have multiple days in the 70s late next week into next weekend. Given setup and teleconnections (+AO/NAO, +EPO, -PNA) I don’t think this one get’s muted. 

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This one’s for you @Voyagerhaha. Once we route out the lingering cold later next week after whatever happens Monday, guidance shifts high pressure to a Bermuda high positioning and that would likely usher in the warmest air we’ve seen since about October. Euro/GFS both have multiple days in the 70s late next week into next weekend. Given setup and teleconnections (+AO/NAO, +EPO, -PNA) I don’t think this one get’s muted. 

Interesting. The temperature gradient in the midwest is oriented north to south like we'd might expect, but in the east it's oriented west to east. Is that simply due to the deep snowpack in the northeast? 

[Voyager]

48 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This one’s for you @Voyagerhaha. Once we route out the lingering cold later next week after whatever happens Monday, guidance shifts high pressure to a Bermuda high positioning and that would likely usher in the warmest air we’ve seen since about October. Euro/GFS both have multiple days in the 70s late next week into next weekend. Given setup and teleconnections (+AO/NAO, +EPO, -PNA) I don’t think this one get’s muted. 

Thanks for posting this. I know I'm in the minority, and sometimes I can be overbearing, but I really needed a spirit pick me up. I've been about as depressed as I've ever been this winter.

[anotherman]

53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This one’s for you @Voyagerhaha. Once we route out the lingering cold later next week after whatever happens Monday, guidance shifts high pressure to a Bermuda high positioning and that would likely usher in the warmest air we’ve seen since about October. Euro/GFS both have multiple days in the 70s late next week into next weekend. Given setup and teleconnections (+AO/NAO, +EPO, -PNA) I don’t think this one get’s muted. 

This will signal the end of our Maple Sugaring operation.

[ChescoWx]

Some interesting stats on the frequency of large 10" plus snowstorms comparing the Philly burbs of Chester County PA vs. Philadelphia.

[MAG5035]

BGM’s take, since they have been updating CTP’s AFD since yesterday morning.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

KEY MESSAGE 2:

The long wave trough remains mostly in place across the region
Sunday night into Monday night, but uncertainty arrives with the
wave pattern to the south that may bring additional rounds of
precipitation to the region. A couple waves move in from the
central US and attempt to brush the southern fringes of the cold
air mass during this time with some potential episodes of
rain/snow, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the north- south extent of these waves. There is high
confidence in the overall pattern becoming warmer by the middle
to latter part of next week. Several short waves may move across
the region during this time as well, which would likely bring
rain (rather than snow) to the region. Will need to monitor this
potentially significant pattern shift as this could prove
impactful to the break up of river ice and lead to an increased
threat of ice jams.