Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS now essentially has moved completely south of the M/D line. 

Yes it has.  Also, it won't be talked about much because it's a pretty meager event and we were never fully in the crosshairs but today was a pretty big miss by the GFS, one in which it didn't cave to the other models until inside of 24 hours. 

As far as Monday, I still feel pretty good about where we are.  0z GFS wasn't as far south and I don't put as much stock in the off-hour runs.  Other models also still have varying degrees of support.  WPC still has us in the heart of its precip map so that's good.  Much to be determined the next couple days but isn't it fun when we're entering March and have to worry about Virginia and North Carolina stealing our snow haha.

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our 41st consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 9th longest stretch and 12th overall streak since 1894. We could see some flurries late today across more southern areas. High temperatures today are a few degrees below normal around 40 degrees but a nice warm up on the way both Friday and especially Saturday with highs in the mid 50's. A strong cold front slides through on Saturday night and we will turn sharply colder by Sunday with highs back down into the 30's. Snow chances look to increase early next week but timing and amounts way too early to nail down.

[Jns2183]

March 1960
The coldest March in Harrisburg history
Date High (°F) Low (°F)
03/01/1960 32.0 20.0
03/02/1960 33.0 18.0
03/03/1960 28.0 19.0
03/04/1960 24.0 18.0
03/05/1960 25.0 18.0
03/06/1960 31.0 18.0
03/07/1960 25.0 11.0
03/08/1960 29.0 12.0
03/09/1960 31.0 13.0
03/10/1960 33.0 19.0
03/11/1960 32.0 12.0
03/12/1960 35.0 17.0
03/13/1960 35.0 18.0
03/14/1960 37.0 23.0
03/15/1960 39.0 21.0
03/16/1960 37.0 20.0
03/17/1960 38.0 30.0
03/18/1960 43.0 33.0
03/19/1960 41.0 28.0
03/20/1960 42.0 29.0
03/21/1960 37.0 28.0
03/22/1960 39.0 25.0
03/23/1960 37.0 23.0
03/24/1960 45.0 27.0
03/25/1960 32.0 22.0
03/26/1960 43.0 23.0
03/27/1960 59.0 29.0
03/28/1960 72.0 41.0
03/29/1960 67.0 42.0
03/30/1960 65.0 46.0
03/31/1960 61.0 52.0

MARCH 1960 SNOW & PRECIPITATION BREAKDOWN

DAYS WITH SNOW RECORDED
Date Precip Snow Ratio (S:L)
---------------------------------------------
03/03/1960 1.05" 10.5" (10.0:1)
03/04/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/05/1960 0.01" 0.1" (10.0:1)
03/07/1960 0.02" 0.6" (30.0:1)
03/08/1960 0.01" 0.4" (40.0:1)
03/10/1960 0.09" 1.8" (20.0:1)
03/16/1960 0.26" 3.2" (12.3:1)
03/17/1960 0.44" 3.0" (6.8:1)
03/21/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/22/1960 0.18" 2.0" (11.1:1)
03/24/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1)
03/26/1960 0.04" 0.4" (10.0:1)
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal: 2.13" 22.6" (10.6:1)
Snow Day Count: 12


DAYS WITH NO SNOW RECORDED
Date Precip
-------------------------
03/01/1960 0.00"
03/02/1960 0.00"
03/06/1960 0.00"
03/09/1960 0.00"
03/11/1960 0.00"
03/12/1960 0.00"
03/13/1960 0.00"
03/14/1960 0.00"
03/15/1960 0.00"
03/18/1960 0.00"
03/19/1960 0.00"
03/20/1960 0.00"
03/23/1960 0.00"
03/25/1960 0.00"
03/27/1960 0.00"
03/28/1960 0.00"
03/29/1960 0.00"
03/30/1960 0.32"
03/31/1960 0.07"
-------------------------
Subtotal: 0.39"


MONTHLY TOTALS
Total Precipitation: 2.52"
Total Snowfall: 22.6"


1960 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS (1 = Coldest)

Month | Avg Temp | Rank (Coldest)
----------------------------------------
March | 31.7F | 1/126
April | 56.7F | 118/126
May | 59.9F | 25/125
June | 70.5F | 45/125
July | 72.9F | 4/125
August | 75.0F | 82/125


Watching MU Twitter as this unfolded would have been a guilty pleasure

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[Jns2183]

It was before my time but does anyone here have a clear memory of the summer of 1982?

SUMMER 1982 DAILY WEATHER LOG (HARRISBURG, PA)

JUNE 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
06/01 | 73 | 63 | 68.0 | 2.36
06/02 | 75 | 55 | 65.0 | 0.00
06/03 | 66 | 52 | 59.0 | 0.74
06/04 | 65 | 56 | 60.5 | 0.02
06/05 | 60 | 56 | 58.0 | 1.18
06/06 | 64 | 55 | 59.5 | 0.00
06/07 | 75 | 54 | 64.5 | 0.00
06/08 | 73 | 53 | 63.0 | 0.00
06/09 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00
06/10 | 62 | 55 | 58.5 | 0.16
06/11 | 63 | 58 | 60.5 | 0.26
06/12 | 62 | 53 | 57.5 | 0.19
06/13 | 54 | 50 | 52.0 | 1.47
06/14 | 76 | 51 | 63.5 | 0.00
06/15 | 81 | 51 | 66.0 | 0.00
06/16 | 83 | 65 | 74.0 | 1.48
06/17 | 78 | 64 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/18 | 79 | 57 | 68.0 | 0.00
06/19 | 81 | 59 | 70.0 | 0.00
06/20 | 73 | 54 | 63.5 | 0.00
06/21 | 80 | 57 | 68.5 | 0.00
06/22 | 77 | 55 | 66.0 | 0.04
06/23 | 72 | 53 | 62.5 | 0.00
06/24 | 74 | 50 | 62.0 | 0.00
06/25 | 80 | 50 | 65.0 | 0.00
06/26 | 84 | 58 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/27 | 82 | 60 | 71.0 | 0.00
06/28 | 85 | 65 | 75.0 | 0.00
06/29 | 80 | 68 | 74.0 | 0.17
06/30 | 78 | 59 | 68.5 | 0.05

JUNE 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 8.12" (Max 1-Day: 2.36")
Means: High 73.8F | Low 56.4F | Avg 65.1F
Max Values: High 85F | Low 68F | Avg 75.0F
Min Values: High 54F | Low 50F | Avg 52.0F

JULY 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
07/01 | 75 | 52 | 63.5 | 0.00
07/02 | 78 | 50 | 64.0 | 0.00
07/03 | 62 | 58 | 60.0 | 0.52
07/04 | 78 | 55 | 66.5 | 0.00
07/05 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00
07/06 | 81 | 56 | 68.5 | 0.00
07/07 | 86 | 64 | 75.0 | 0.00
07/08 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.07
07/09 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.00
07/10 | 86 | 66 | 76.0 | 0.00
07/11 | 81 | 69 | 75.0 | 0.00
07/12 | 85 | 63 | 74.0 | 0.00
07/13 | 85 | 59 | 72.0 | 0.00
07/14 | 91 | 63 | 77.0 | 0.00
07/15 | 88 | 72 | 80.0 | 0.00
07/16 | 90 | 70 | 80.0 | 0.00
07/17 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/18 | 92 | 75 | 83.5 | 0.00
07/19 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/20 | 84 | 71 | 77.5 | 0.08
07/21 | 84 | 63 | 73.5 | 0.00
07/22 | 88 | 59 | 73.5 | 0.00
07/23 | 87 | 70 | 78.5 | 0.00
07/24 | 86 | 62 | 74.0 | 0.00
07/25 | 91 | 62 | 76.5 | 0.00
07/26 | 93 | 70 | 81.5 | 0.00
07/27 | 88 | 73 | 80.5 | 0.64
07/28 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.92
07/29 | 83 | 62 | 72.5 | 0.00
07/30 | 74 | 63 | 68.5 | 0.01
07/31 | 83 | 66 | 74.5 | 0.66

JULY 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 2.90" (Max 1-Day: 0.92")
Means: High 84.2F | Low 64.5F | Avg 74.4F
Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F
Min Values: High 62F | Low 50F | Avg 60.0F

AUGUST 1982
Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp
--------------------------------
08/01 | 83 | 64 | 73.5 | 0.00
08/02 | 84 | 64 | 74.0 | 0.38
08/03 | 82 | 63 | 72.5 | 0.00
08/04 | 86 | 65 | 75.5 | 0.57
08/05 | 90 | 72 | 81.0 | 0.00
08/06 | 82 | 69 | 75.5 | 0.00
08/07 | 81 | 67 | 74.0 | 0.00
08/08 | 83 | 72 | 77.5 | 0.00
08/09 | 85 | 71 | 78.0 | 0.64
08/10 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.00
08/11 | 72 | 61 | 66.5 | 0.18
08/12 | 78 | 57 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/13 | 76 | 54 | 65.0 | 0.00
08/14 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/15 | 83 | 56 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/16 | 85 | 58 | 71.5 | 0.00
08/17 | 85 | 62 | 73.5 | 0.18
08/18 | 79 | 59 | 69.0 | 0.00
08/19 | 84 | 55 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/20 | 81 | 61 | 71.0 | 0.08
08/21 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00
08/22 | 70 | 50 | 60.0 | 0.00
08/23 | 74 | 58 | 66.0 | 0.04
08/24 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.00
08/25 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.38
08/26 | 82 | 57 | 69.5 | 0.00
08/27 | 71 | 64 | 67.5 | 0.00
08/28 | 74 | 56 | 65.0 | 0.00
08/29 | 70 | 46 | 58.0 | 0.00
08/30 | 75 | 59 | 67.0 | 0.00
08/31 | 82 | 61 | 71.5 | 0.02

AUGUST 1982 SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 2.47" (Max 1-Day: 0.64")
Means: High 80.2F | Low 60.8F | Avg 70.5F
Max Values: High 92F | Low 72F | Avg 81.0F
Min Values: High 70F | Low 46F | Avg 58.0F

SUMMER 1982 TOTAL SUMMARY:
Precipitation: 13.49" (Max 1-Day: 2.36")
Means: High 79.5F | Low 60.6F | Avg 70.0F
Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F
Min Values: High 54F | Low 46F | Avg 52.0F

SUMMER 1982 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY (DAYS)

HIGH TEMPERATURES
Period | ----------------------------------------------
JUNE | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0
JULY | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 7
AUGUST | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 1
----------------------------------------------
SUMMER | 1 | 8 | 28 | 47 | 8


LOW TEMPERATURES
Period | -----------------------------------------
JUNE | 0 | 24 | 6 | 0
JULY | 0 | 8 | 14 | 9
AUGUST | 1 | 13 | 14 | 3
-----------------------------------------
SUMMER | 1 | 45 | 34 | 12


Imagine only 12 nights with a low above 70 and 8 days of 90's

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[canderson]

Sound like the first half of March will be AN temp wise.