Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I could be wrong but it sounds like everyone at work just wanted the extra day off, sound reasoning be darned. Which would make that really unfair for you to take that kind of flak. You certainly made a better forecast call than I did there. 

The other part of your post is a really good example of why I personally don’t do the YouTube/F-Book/Twitter Met stuff. I’d much rather discuss in a place like this forum where enough of the regulars (certainly not all haha) for the most part understand the difficulty in nailing this stuff down. Don’t ever be discouraged making your forecast calls in here.

 

 

and you know we tip our hat to you Mr. Regtagger.  Dont envy you guys, but do appreciate yas.  Hell I just stuck up for WGAL as they are gettin trolled by asshats who are nothing short of clueless.  Keyboard warriours are a dime a dozen, while clueless to what it takes to pin down a forecast. 

CTP just covered all bases for thurs/friday in their disco. Guessing they are a little gunshy after GFS led the way.

 

[ChescoWx]

The total storm accumulation here in East Nantmeal was 10.0". This is the 2nd largest snowfall of the season behind only the 12.8" that fell back on January 25th. We have now recorded 47.4" of snow for the season here in East Nantmeal Twp. This is the snowiest winter since 2020-21 and the 6th snowiest winter since I began records in EN back in 2003. See the rankings below.

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The storm to our east - NJ/NYC/LI and up into SNE is historic. Record stuff. 

Somebody in SE Mass is gonna end up with over 3 feet with that band sitting over them right now. Most reports around there are already nearly 2 feet. 

[Jsauss]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My cousin lives between Lewes and Georgetown in Sussex County DE. He sent me a measurement of 23.4" a while ago. No power and it's not expected back until Wednesday. The shore is shut down. They are going to try and get Coastal Highway open today but it's surreal right now in slower lower Delaware. 

I've seen video out of OCMD from early this morning, i should have traveled down for the event. 

[Jsauss]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Providence RI might break its record from 1978! 

i saw the potential winds on Nantucket were to be 65-70 mph and wondered if you did one of your famous road trips 

[Jns2183]

I think there's a good chance that I'd communicate a little bit better professionally.  
Hey, I got lucky with my "forecast" but unfortunately, it's going to be my last one. And this is what I wanted to get off my chest last night - 
When significant winter storms are threatening our area, there's a group here at work that collaborate on how to handle adjusting operations schedules. I'm a part of it for 2 reasons; one, I'm in HR, and two, I'm looked at as the company's "weather authority" to some extent. This storm will be my last for providing my insight. Why?
It's become a pain. I was approached last Wednesday for early thoughts on the storm. I shared the same thing here at work that I shared here online. I gave probabilities that were intentionally vague being 4 days out. Then on Friday morning, I gave my "call" of 3-6". I was ridiculed. I was harassed. I was dare I say it, even threatened. Because, I was bombarded with snow maps. Snow map after snow map after snow map of every model from every Tom, Dick, (intentional use of that name) and Harry showing 13", 16", 20", 25" that were literally pushed in my face and told that I needed to change my call. I explained my thought, my reasoning as to why I thought they were all off. I said that yes, there would be those amounts, and yes, they would be close to our area, BUT I felt pretty good that it was going to slip east over the final 24 hours. They didn't want to hear it. (even though they came to me for my thoughts) 
I was hit up again on Saturday. Same thing, new day. Texts. Emails. More maps. Oh my, more maps. I'm not kidding, I was emailed and/or texted well over 70 snow maps on Friday and Saturday alone. I was asked once again about Sunday. I reiterated that Sunday during the day would be a non-issue. More flack. More hostility. Whatever. And you know what came next? Yesterday, I start getting texts. Emails. Calls. Why isn't it snowing? This is a bust. Is it even going to snow at all? I'm thinking "did you actually stop and listen to me at all?" And on and on it went.
Today, right now I'm sitting in my office at work. Alone. I am THE only one in the entire office building. Why? Despite the fact that every road was wet this morning, the decision was made to shut down. The decision was made on Friday. Here I am. Angry. Frustrated. Tired. And most of all, jaded. People today do not know how to act. They sure as hell don't listen. And it saddens me how people act. Hey, this storm was almost impossible to forecast...I mean really, like [mention=2710]pasnownut[/mention] said...we were THAT close to something much bigger. And that's just it. If you forecast the weather today, you better have really thick skin because if you're wrong, your ass is grass. The amount of hatred and mocking online yesterday towards WGAL's storm team was sickening. This was probably one of the hardest events to predict ever. I had my reasons for my call but as I said...I still lucked out. At least mostly.  
One big problem today is snow maps. Everyone has access to them. I had someone hand me a print out of the GFS 12z on Friday afternoon. I asked her where she got it and she said she googled how to access snow maps online. And these people see these maps and it's assumed that they're accurate. And then I have to explain why I don't think they are. Whatever. Snow maps have their purpose and they're fun to look at but they ARE driving a wedge between the general public and people who forecast weather for a living. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. They can't win. MU's biggest weakness is conveying those truths in a professional way. He's arrogant to a fault. That's on him. But for the rest of the met world...I sincerely feel sorry for all of you. The public has way too much access to way too much (false) information and it is putting them in an impossible situation. 
I'm out. No more forecasts from me. Just not worth it. 
 

You hit the nail on the head regarding the "democratization" of weather data. We’ve reached a point where access to data has outpaced the literacy required to interpret it. When someone hands you a printout of a single model run, they aren't looking at a forecast; they're looking at one possible mathematical solution out of thousands, and usually the most extreme one.
It’s the Meteorological Dunning-Kruger Effect: they know just enough to find the map, but not enough to know why that map is hot garbage four days out.

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[Jns2183]

Somebody in SE Mass is gonna end up with over 3 feet with that band sitting over them right now. Most reports around there are already nearly 2 feet. 

Watching that band gave me flashbacks to 2016. I also think it's worth noting how that south Central pa was the jackpot in that historical storm. Even accounting for "climate loading"—the observed increase in high-intensity precipitation events due to a warmer, more moisture-rich atmosphere the return period for
30" 82 years
33" 145 years
36" 260 years
People here recorded those values during that storm with kmdt having 30.1"

That's a once in 3,6,10 generation type event and was only 10 years ago.

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[Jns2183]

There was just a bright blue flash, the whole sky lit up, but no sound.I'm assuming it's a transformer and the sound got muffled from snow. But I have no idea I don't see any lightning detected even along the coast. 

That bright blue flash was a transformer that knocked power out to a lot of Camp hill. That caused them to have to cancel school today instead of two hour delay.

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[canderson]

It has snowing nonstop since around 9. Such a pretty day.  

[Jns2183]

Also does anyone here have any idea of who I contact to pay to get archive of all the past Central Pennsylvania threads

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[WmsptWx]

Wind has picked up. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

My gauge melted down to exactly .5" liquid.  Meh.

So, it looks like maybe a weak clipper to deal with (weak down here anyway) Tuesday night and then maybe another little wave that passes to our south Thursday that hopefully the GFS is leading the way on again.  Some other stuff has been showing up sporadically beyond that as well.  Maybe a couple more weeks of active chitchat in here before winter's wrath begins to wane.

[Itstrainingtime]

32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Also does anyone here have any idea of who I contact to pay to get archive of all the past Central Pennsylvania threads

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How far back are you looking for?

All of our threads since Eastern became Americanwx in 2010 are right here under the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania main subforum. If you're looking for older thread predating 2010 on Eastern, reach out to Randy (Stormtracker) and see if he can help. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Interesting going back to the threads from 2010-11, a lot of forgotten names along with a lot of us still here. It didn't take me long to find a Canderson post about winds.  

[boo radley]

4 ish here….hope y’all are doing well 

[canderson]

19.7” at Central Park

[pawatch]

Providence, Rhode Island 32.8 inches of snow.

Only predicting an 1” of snow Tuesday night?

 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Providence, Rhode Island 32.8 inches of snow.

Only predicting an 1” of snow Tuesday night?

 

They average 36.6”/season. They probably get above their average in 24 hours. 

[canderson]

 

Reading area got hosed 

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting going back to the threads from 2010-11, a lot of forgotten names along with a lot of us still here. It didn't take me long to find a Canderson post about winds.  

And March is on our doorstep, you'll be hearing more from him regarding wind.

[WmsptWx]

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

And March is on our doorstep, you'll be hearing more from him regarding wind.

And hopefully hail and severe thunderstorms.