Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Upon further review, Lancaster and Lebanon are squarely in the screw zone with more just west and east. GFS brings the inverted trough west of the river to save them.

Could certainly end up that way, just have to let the chips fall at this point. 

[MAG5035]

32/28ºF with the initial precip on the doorstep here.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Upon further review, Lancaster and Lebanon are squarely in the screw zone with more just west and east. GFS brings the inverted trough west of the river to save them.

Yeah that was painful to view.  I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha.  I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out.  Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.  

[MAG5035]

 

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here as well.

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m gonna throw out a map at some point I think, though I better do it soon since it looks like the first snow moves into the central counties by 12-2am. Might wait to see some early 0z stuff. 

I still consider the bust potential at least moderate in the corridor between I-81 (including Harrisburg metro) and the Laurels. Rates will be crucial with the first half or so of this event occurring during the daytime in that area with the temps near freezing. High res models kind of hint at this with their more elevational look to snow totals in the ridge and valley. On top of all that is that this is the region of central PA most likely to see that inverted trough related band set up somewhere. That feature’s about the only thing the Euro has been modelling consistently with this system. I think where that sits the longest will put down a narrow stripe of 8-12” within what I currently think will be a general 4-7” for this corridor. 

Still definitely some bust potential for York/Lancaster counties as well in terms of the top end potential. Obviously short term/high res guidance like the HRRR and NAM throttle this part of the Sus Valley, while the globals do not. GFS has tightened a bit, only clipping the far end of Lancaster with double digits. I’m weighing a bit more toward high res stuff at this point but this is where how far inside that coastal low can get becomes very important. 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Do yourselves a favor and put an hourly model, say the 3k NAM, in motion and just watch it to completion.  It's poetry in motion.  The very reason many of us spend time on this crazy hobby.  I love this board and all of you, now let's reel this mother-fu$%er in for the forum.  And yes, I've had a couple whiskeys, so be it.  We wait all year for nights like these.  Cheers fiends! 

This is why many of us are here, but yeah, we hang out w/ some good folks as well.

Enjoy all.  This is the good stuff (even if a little east for my liking).

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks! I take pride in my discussions, especially for high impact events. This was a fun one today. I wrote yesterday too, but that conveyed more uncertainty. Today, I let it rip. 

We are lucky to have you.  You make us proud.  Well done friend.

Not often do we get to see writeups like that for this area

[MAG5035]

CTP’s sending it, remaining watch area to warnings and a few extra north central counties in it as well. 4-9”


.

[Jns2183]

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here.

Can't see picture

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[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm already enjoying the whole situation regardless. Everything's covered with frost and crispy out here at my buddies in Lisburn. The rocket stoves fired up  and the soup's about to go on the barrel. I'm doing my couple mile walk home and possibly beyond tonight regardless of what might be coming from the sky. 

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Can't see picture

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Let me know if you see it.

[AMDEW80]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Let me know if you see it.

Nice map.  Not going to lie, I thought the original post question mark was… the forecast 

[MAG5035]

6 minutes ago, AMDEW80 said:

Nice map.  Not going to lie, I thought the original post question mark was… the forecast 

Haha I’m glad someone said something, I fixed the original post so it should be visible there now too. 

Also, snow has started here.

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT down to 29 at midnight….

Every flake will count & roads will cave !

[Blizzard of 93]

So if models can’t get low temps right, what else are they missing?

[Blizzard of 93]

MJS… I too have had a couple of “beverages” & am ready to reel in this storm for all of us!

[Blizzard of 93]

@canderson WGAL updated their map to 4 to 8 for most us …

so a local outlet is start to get on board.

[Ruin]

temp down to 29 3 degrees lower then forecast but sure the temps will bounce up due to cloud cover later.

[Blizzard of 93]

@canderson lol, guess what.,, shockingly another local outlet ABC 27 upgraded their forecast to to 4 to 8 for most of us…

[CarlislePaWx]

Hey @Blizzard of 93, I just saw that CTP lumped us in with the rest of the LSV counties, which means expectations now are for 6-12".  As you know, our two counties were kept separate because initially we weren't in the original watch issued yesterday.  They were projecting only 5-9".  My point-n-click had been going with a storm total of 4-6" despite the county warning of 5-9.  Anyway, it's going to be exciting to see where the norlun eventually sets up.  Where in central PA?  This situation reminds me of fond memories from the Jan. 2016 storm which gave me 35".  That turned out to be because the deathband set itself up right over central Cumberland county.  For hours the CCB kept delivering inch after inch of additional snow.  I realize this isn't quite the same setup, but it has the potential to deliver the goods just as in 2016.  The fun continues. 

 

[MAG5035]

Pretty good start so far… moderate rate and 31ºF. About a half inch on non paved surfaces.

[Yardstickgozinya]

A few wet flakes and grauple started hitting the ground here at 3:01 AM

[Jns2183]

Haha I’m glad someone said something, I fixed the original post so it should be visible there now too. 
Also, snow has started here.

What should I be paying attention to on mesoanalysis website for hints of where the inverted trough might show up?

I'm going all in hoping to get inverted trough vs ccb band. The slant wise convection in that ccb is insane on the models. Which means there is going to be an area somewhere in this viewing area whose going to be have flurries for hours on end while 40:miles either direction is getting smoked.

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[Jns2183]

Yup, looking at storm evolution I fully expect there to be a town that just gets stuck between the inverted trough and ccb and ends up with 3" on grass while 30 mins either direction they have 10". I'm guessing 4" in camp hill. I don't like our position. But I also have no faith in the models to accurately predict a 30-40 mile wide screw zone. So it's not going to obvious where it sets up until tomorrow evening. This really is a no win forecast for local Mets.

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[Voyager]

4 hours ago, Ruin said:

temp down to 29 3 degrees lower then forecast but sure the temps will bounce up due to cloud cover later.

I was the same 29.3 around 10pm last night. It's snowing here now, but the temp shot up to 35 currently.

[Voyager]

Oh, and if I lived just 5 miles east of Tamaqua in Lansford, I'd be under a Blizzard Warning instead of a Winter Storm Warning.

Mt Holly upgraded Carbon and Monroe to the Blizzard Warning. Strangely though, not Lehigh or Northampton.

[Jns2183]

Here are two examples. The regional Canadian and more worrying the RRFS-A, which has never shown more than 3-4" since it got into range. This model is scheduled to replace the HRRR, NAM, RAP with the NEXT 3 MONTHS. The second to last image I threw in was the HRRR. You can clearly see the the sinking air screw zone. If the inverted trough is strong it's even worse as you essentially have two vacuum cleaners sucking up all moisture. I think the possibility for the worst of the possible screw zone might be a bit northeast, Schyukhill county scares the crap out me here. I can easily see a situation where people are livid in one town because they got 3" instead of 12-16" while a place between Harrisburg and state college under a wwa for 3-4" wakes up Monday morning to 12".

There 100% will be a small but horrible area of sinking air in this setup. Good luck trying to predict it ahead of time.

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[Jns2183]

Oh, and if I lived just 5 miles east of Tamaqua in Lansford, I'd be under a Blizzard Warning instead of a Winter Storm Warning.
Mt Holly upgraded Carbon and Monroe to the Blizzard Warning. Strangely though, not Lehigh or Northampton.

The entire route 81 area scares me this storm because of that 20-30 mile screw zone that going to set up and be brutal

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[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The entire route 81 area scares me this storm because of that 20-30 mile screw zone that going to set up and be brutal

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Perusing the models this morning, it seems that they are hinting at it now. I'll say that it wouldn't be the first time that I've sat in that subsidence screw zone. It almost seems inherent to the local region.

[Jns2183]

Perusing the models this morning, it seems that they are hinting at it now. I'll say that it wouldn't be the first time that I've sat in that subsidence screw zone. It almost seems inherent to the local region.

You also very well may a screw zone whose width is more narrow than the 40 mile mean banding error for our best models. That 40 mile error at 6 hour forecast, which was from big technical paper NWS did last year. Basically what I'm saying is this narrow screw zone is functional impossible to accurately predict until it's already set up. A true
Impossible circumference for forecasters. People wouldn't even know how to process a forecast that is "80% chance of 12"+ over our 200 mile wide viewing area, however somewhere within will be a 20 mile wide band at angle between 90 degrees and 45 degrees where it quickly drops to 3" for the center 10 miles. We unfortunately won't know whose in this band until storm is well underway. Plan accordingly. "

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[Yardstickgozinya]

When I started my walk, it was drizzling., but it quickly started mixing with snow  within the first five minutes, and it's been steady snow for about the last thirty minutes of my walk.. The smell of  winter is in the air. What compelled me to take a break from my walk and post, was the sound of a distant locomotive air horn echoing throughout the valley.  That sound is without a doubt, is my absolute favorite sound of of winter.. It's one of the most lonely an haunting sounds, but also quite majestic and beautiful at the same time.  I find the locomotive horn to be a testament to some of the great generations that came before, and times when things just didn't move so damn fast. 

30,000mm waterproofing doing its thing.