Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[anotherman]

12z GFS kuchera definitely restricted the banding and heavier precip amounts to the east of this forum. But it may just be noise now


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That is the scenario we’re all worried about. Damn.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, AccuChris said:

12z GFS kuchera definitely restricted the banding and heavier precip amounts to the east of this forum. But it may just be noise now


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Well that matches my call for my area to a T.

But is this done bleeding east?

[anotherman]

Well that matches my call for my area to a T.
But is this done bleeding east?

Hopefully GFS is just being the GFS and we can rely more on short-term models now.

[Superstorm]

I’m on the short range models now


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[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That is the scenario we’re all worried about. Damn.

Yup. Big fear. Trending back east a bit at T-24 hours.

[Superstorm]

Yup. Big fear. Trending back east a bit at T-24 hours.

Short range models look good


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well that matches my call for my area to a T.

But is this done bleeding east?

That's the big question.  How many times have we seen significant shifts in the final 24 hours.  If you look across the 12z suite thus far you can see a slight eastward shift, even in some of the lesser talked about models.  Hope this isn't the start of the rug being pulled.

[Storm Clouds]

This storm is going to hurt…yes maybe most of us see 3-6/4-8, but hell 50-75 miles east is getting a blizzard. Not fun. Yes I’m a snow weenie as much as anyone!  Hope the NAM is right…it was for the big snow/sleet storm a month ago with the warm nose…

[Superstorm]

CMC slightly west


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

The Canadian, for as inconsistent as it's been, has been quite consistent in not wanting to bring much snow to our area.

[Voyager]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That's the big question.  How many times have we seen significant shifts in the final 24 hours.  If you look across the 12z suite thus far you can see a slight eastward shift, even in some of the lesser talked about models.  Hope this isn't the start of the rug being pulled.

As I said, big concern, only because it has happened before. Hopefully, it's just noise, and perhaps still trends a bit west to help out true central a bit more.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

AIGFS ticked the qpf field back to the east a bit as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

The GFS did its surprisingly good job bringing us to this point. 

Now the short range models must take us in the rest of the way. We are under 24 hours until game time.

[Blizzard of 93]

From @MillvilleWx a few minutes ago:

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. 

ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. 

I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. 

 

[canderson]

My final prediction, and remember I’m an idiot: 

MDT: 2.9”
LNS: 5.2”
@MAG5035: 3.4”
@WmsptWx: 3.2”
CTP: 3.5”
PHL: 9.7”
NYC: 11.5

[Mount Joy Snowman]

We ride the RAP until it dies, for this day and all our days!  Freedom!!!  *whispers quietly that the RAP also shifted east*

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I’m on the short range models now


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It’s time, but gotta raise eyebrow at gfs. We knew this west look would stop at some point. 

Took break from cuttin wood. 
NAM fr the win. I hope. lol. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@GrandmasterB are we doing a MDT contest this time ?

[HBGCPA10]

I just don't see heavy accumulations in Harrisburg. Too warm prior to the storm, too warm during Sunday, late February sun angle. Going to need heavy snow during the night and I don't think we see much of that.

My high so far for the day is 48.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, HBGCPA10 said:

I just don't see heavy accumulations in Harrisburg. Too warm prior to the storm, too warm during Sunday, late February sun angle. Going to need heavy snow during the night and I don't think we see much of that.

My high so far for the day is 48.

Yeah it seems like Harrisburg proper might struggle with this one.  All depends on if any of the coastal bands reach out that far through the overnight.

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@GrandmasterB are we doing a MDT contest this time ?

Hahaha, the mindset of a true champion! I just got back from a week on the road and have a ton going on. Anyone can start one if they like. Adds to the fun!

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah it seems like Harrisburg proper might struggle with this one.  All depends on if any of the coastal bands reach out that far through the overnight.

What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win. 

If I get 4” I consider that a huge success and somewhat unlikely outcome (I do doubt roads get covered completely here). Here s hoping it happens!

[Ruin]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win. 

I hope we get 6-8 just to shut up local news weather always low balling us 

[Blizzard of 93]

The Deb doom casting is getting a little out of hand…

 

[Blizzard of 93]

We are under a freaking Winter Storm Watch, but the roads might not get covered, lol!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z short range models are showing what “should” happen with a deepening coastal low. Banding should push “well” inland similar to a tropical storm. There will also be a pivot point when the storm reaches & begins to pass our latitude to northeast. The backside of these events can be prolific as well if you get into a productive band.

[HBGCPA10]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We are under a freaking Winter Storm Watch, but the roads might not get covered, lol!!!!!!!!!!!!

I mean the start is less than 20 hours away, NWS going to wait until it starts snowing to upgrade to a warning/downgrade to advisory

[HBGCPA10]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

If I get 4” I consider that a huge success and somewhat unlikely outcome (I do doubt roads get covered completely here). Here s hoping it happens!

Definitely won't during the day, maybe at night if it snows hard enough.

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m sure they will be putting their updated Advisories & Warnings this afternoon.