Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 18. My pack has barely shrunk a millimeter this week. Tomorrow should do some work though. 

[mahantango#1]

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

[Jns2183]

I want to make it known just how rare these past 19 days have been. KMDT has had snow on the ground since 1/25. Adding up snow depths we get 111" or an average of 5.84"; but never more than 9". When looking at the past
In the last 126 years of data, this specific "steady but deep" condition has only occurred in 4 winter seasons:
​1905
​1925
​1961
​1968

Usually to get to 19 days requires a big boy storm. This has been a throwback winter in a way.

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[ChescoWx]

Sunny with highs near freezing today. We then turn a bit milder over the weekend with highs near average not too far from 40 degrees. A slight chance of some light snow by Sunday night before a nice warm-up toward the middle of next week. We will see highs well into the 40's. Rain chances increase again by Wednesday and we will trend colder again by next weekend.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I want to make it known just how rare these past 19 days have been. KMDT has had snow on the ground since 1/25. Adding up snow depths we get 111" or an average of 5.84"; but never more than 9". When looking at the past
In the last 126 years of data, this specific "steady but deep" condition has only occurred in 4 winter seasons:
1905
1925
1961
1968

Usually to get to 19 days requires a big boy storm. This has been a throwback winter in a way.

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Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 

I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading @Mount Joy Snowman posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 

Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 

I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading @Mount Joy Snowman posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 

Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

as stated many times before, you and I are like minded wrt our love of winter landscape and how sleet is the ultimate pack densifier.  

think we hold on till Tues/Wed then the landscape starts to change.  What a run.  

[MAG5035]

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster.

Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor. 

[canderson]

CTP has killed off any storm chances Sunday. 

They posted on Fb a few minutes ago:

It looks likely it will be a mostly cloudy weekend. Temps will continue to moderate some into the weekend with highs on Sunday expected to be in the 40s over central PA. Precipitation chances look overall low for Sunday, but some isolated rain or flurries could occur. 
#PAwx

[Jns2183]

We might as well get the #drought moniker going. I fear this could be the year we truly bake under the vine come summer, with full water restrictions everywhere and the bit. It's been 20 years, we are certainly due and this winter looks to be setting it up perfectly. I hope I eat a big fat crow on this one vs praying for a tropical system to save us.

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[mahantango#1]

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster.

Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor. 

And then...came the 18z GFS.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And then...came the 18z GFS.

Yes, hopefully models finally converge by tomorrow, but I would sign for the solid Advisory level event that the 18z GFS is showing for southern PA Sunday night.

[Jns2183]

And then...came the 18z GFS.

50/50 chance we have a 50/50 chance of having a workable forcast for Sunday night by Sunday morning

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[Jns2183]

We are doomed as a species

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[Blizzard of 93]

Very active 18z GFS run with multiple Winter storm chances after our brief warm up next week.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Interesting- it’s water streams and puddles everywhere around HBG/Camp Hill. I actually splashed my pant leg walking into Costco tonight 

[Jns2183]

At this point I have to laugh. I'm starting to feel better but noticed I couldn't taste anything today. Took COVID test, positive of course. I'm sure I picked that up in hospital

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[Jns2183]

Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 
I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading [mention=18246]Mount Joy Snowman[/mention] posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 
Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

Winter of 93-94 holds the record here. 76 days straight of snow on the ground. Jan 4th to March 20.

1977-78 was also a banger. 66 days straight. Jan 13- March 19th. Take a look at the images for the beauty that winter was. It was also frigid. Average daily temperature
Dec 31.6
Jan 26.2
Feb 22.8
March 38.6



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[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

At this point I have to laugh. I'm starting to feel better but noticed I couldn't taste anything today. Took COVID test, positive of course. I'm sure I picked that up in hospital

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You just can’t catch a break my friend. Hang in there. 

[MAG5035]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And then...came the 18z GFS.

I mean I’ll gladly be wrong haha, though I didn’t completely shut the door on precip making it into southern PA. The 0z GFS is going harder than the 18z did, with a warning event in the Sus Valley and advisory all the way up through the C-PA I-80 counties. The northern feature is notably sharper and more involved than the 12z and 18z run. 

0z vs 12z

 

Models like the NAM and RGEM which hadn’t been anywhere near getting anything into PA now have lighter precip into the southern third of PA on the 0z run, although p-type is mainly rain with those models. 18z Euro, which was one of the few that got precip into PA was the same as well being similar in precip coverage to 12z but more rain. So temps are still a potential issue as they will be fairly mild Sunday. The GFS’s stronger solution would likely take care of that problem as that solution obviously has the heavier rates. You can see how a lighter event might still have issues though with the marginal surface temps. We’ll see what happens the next couple runs. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Where do I sign for the 0z GFS ?

This looks like some of the runs that we had several days ago for this Sunday pm chance…

Let’s see if we can reel this in…?

[Itstrainingtime]

57 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I mean I’ll gladly be wrong haha, though I didn’t completely shut the door on precip making it into southern PA. The 0z GFS is going harder than the 18z did, with a warning event in the Sus Valley and advisory all the way up through the C-PA I-80 counties. The northern feature is notably sharper and more involved than the 12z and 18z run. 

0z vs 12z

 

Models like the NAM and RGEM which hadn’t been anywhere near getting anything into PA now have lighter precip into the southern third of PA on the 0z run, although p-type is mainly rain with those models. 18z Euro, which was one of the few that got precip into PA was the same as well being similar in precip coverage to 12z but more rain. So temps are still a potential issue as they will be fairly mild Sunday. The GFS’s stronger solution would likely take care of that problem as that solution obviously has the heavier rates. You can see how a lighter event might still have issues though with the marginal surface temps. We’ll see what happens the next couple runs. 

Please understand, I wasn't being critical of you in any way. I don't do that. It was just ironic that the GFS jumped on to something it largely wanted no part of even when the Euro did.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Just had a brief a grauple shower here.

[mahantango#1]

from NWS this morning:

The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm
boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing,
elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the
weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have
increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across
south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas
to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to
moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The
official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a
bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an
uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range
with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to
monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute
impacts.

[mahantango#1]

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

[Blizzard of 93]

I would love for the 6z GFS to be right for tomorrow pm…

Hopefully we get some model consensus later today.