Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 18. My pack has barely shrunk a millimeter this week. Tomorrow should do some work though. 

[mahantango#1]

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

[Jns2183]

I want to make it known just how rare these past 19 days have been. KMDT has had snow on the ground since 1/25. Adding up snow depths we get 111" or an average of 5.84"; but never more than 9". When looking at the past
In the last 126 years of data, this specific "steady but deep" condition has only occurred in 4 winter seasons:
​1905
​1925
​1961
​1968

Usually to get to 19 days requires a big boy storm. This has been a throwback winter in a way.

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[ChescoWx]

Sunny with highs near freezing today. We then turn a bit milder over the weekend with highs near average not too far from 40 degrees. A slight chance of some light snow by Sunday night before a nice warm-up toward the middle of next week. We will see highs well into the 40's. Rain chances increase again by Wednesday and we will trend colder again by next weekend.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I want to make it known just how rare these past 19 days have been. KMDT has had snow on the ground since 1/25. Adding up snow depths we get 111" or an average of 5.84"; but never more than 9". When looking at the past
In the last 126 years of data, this specific "steady but deep" condition has only occurred in 4 winter seasons:
1905
1925
1961
1968

Usually to get to 19 days requires a big boy storm. This has been a throwback winter in a way.

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Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 

I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading @Mount Joy Snowman posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 

Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 

I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading @Mount Joy Snowman posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 

Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

as stated many times before, you and I are like minded wrt our love of winter landscape and how sleet is the ultimate pack densifier.  

think we hold on till Tues/Wed then the landscape starts to change.  What a run.  

[MAG5035]

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster.

Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor. 

[canderson]

CTP has killed off any storm chances Sunday. 

They posted on Fb a few minutes ago:

It looks likely it will be a mostly cloudy weekend. Temps will continue to moderate some into the weekend with highs on Sunday expected to be in the 40s over central PA. Precipitation chances look overall low for Sunday, but some isolated rain or flurries could occur. 
#PAwx

[Jns2183]

We might as well get the #drought moniker going. I fear this could be the year we truly bake under the vine come summer, with full water restrictions everywhere and the bit. It's been 20 years, we are certainly due and this winter looks to be setting it up perfectly. I hope I eat a big fat crow on this one vs praying for a tropical system to save us.

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[mahantango#1]

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster.

Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor. 

And then...came the 18z GFS.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And then...came the 18z GFS.

Yes, hopefully models finally converge by tomorrow, but I would sign for the solid Advisory level event that the 18z GFS is showing for southern PA Sunday night.

[Jns2183]

And then...came the 18z GFS.

50/50 chance we have a 50/50 chance of having a workable forcast for Sunday night by Sunday morning

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[Jns2183]

We are doomed as a species

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[Blizzard of 93]

Very active 18z GFS run with multiple Winter storm chances after our brief warm up next week.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Interesting- it’s water streams and puddles everywhere around HBG/Camp Hill. I actually splashed my pant leg walking into Costco tonight 

[Jns2183]

At this point I have to laugh. I'm starting to feel better but noticed I couldn't taste anything today. Took COVID test, positive of course. I'm sure I picked that up in hospital

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[Jns2183]

Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. 
I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading [mention=18246]Mount Joy Snowman[/mention] posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. 
Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick. 

Winter of 93-94 holds the record here. 76 days straight of snow on the ground. Jan 4th to March 20.

1977-78 was also a banger. 66 days straight. Jan 13- March 19th. Take a look at the images for the beauty that winter was. It was also frigid. Average daily temperature
Dec 31.6
Jan 26.2
Feb 22.8
March 38.6



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