canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The NWS is going to look very bad if the nam is right. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago damn primary 3mb stronger isnt helping either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3K is even worse, with Lancaster crew losing over half its total QPF to mix. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, canderson said: The NWS is going to look very bad if the nam is right. Yikes. of course it is, but you see all of what the other models are showing. you willing to follow just 1 model suite? I'm mean yeah there was 2016, but verbatim, its left end of goalposts IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Classic case of over amped NAM still in its long range… It’s almost unusable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, pasnownut said: of course it is, but you see all of what the other models are showing. you willing to follow just 1 model suite? I'm mean yeah there was 2016, but verbatim, its left end of goalposts IMO NAM is over amping & booting this low level extreme Arctic air mass way too quickly in my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM profiles probably right, but it’s always over amped.Still thinking a foot before changeover in southern counties.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Kinda don't hate 12" of snow with 2-3" of sleet followed by this cold. Olympics start in two weeks, time to get the kids out on ice with sleds for some backyard luge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This isn’t some bombing out 985 cutter going from Nashville to Cleveland attacking a marginal cold air mass… We have a weak low getting up to WV attacking an impressive Arctic air mass that will secondary off of the DelMarVa. Yes, the LSV will eventually mix, but not as quickly as this NAM is showing… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Bradford hit -18 wowsers. MDT may be on record watch on Tuesday. FV3, which is a model I typically loathe, is still showing a monster all-snow storm, so I will choose to ride it to the death this time haha...... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Bradford hit -18 wowsers. MDT may be on record watch on Tuesday. FV3, which is a model I typically loathe, is still showing a monster all-snow storm, so I will choose to ride it to the death this time haha...... The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, canderson said: The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol Sometimes the GFS gets lost. Remember just a few days ago where it has the storm. I guess we'll see if the models come around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Bradford hit -18 wowsers. MDT may be on record watch on Tuesday. FV3, which is a model I typically loathe, is still showing a monster all-snow storm, so I will choose to ride it to the death this time haha...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A significant winter storm will impact the area starting after midnight tonight. Arctic air has spread across the area with most spots still in single digits here in the 9am hour. We won’t warm much today with an outside shot at a station or 2 recording a top 5 coldest maximum temperature for the day. Highs generally in the middle teens above zero. Snow probably begins during the 2am hour from SW to NE across the area. It will be snowing heavily by daybreak, and we should see many spots accumulating at least 6” of snow by 10am. After 10am we should see a quick change from south to north to a prolonged period of accumulating sleet which will slowly add to our snow totals. It is possible that some areas of southern Chesco could see up to 3” of sleet on top of the snow that had previously fallen. Sleet could mix with the snow at times by later tomorrow night before ending by 11pm. The NWS has a forecast for 8” to 12” of snow/sleet accumulation across the area. Southern Chesco could see some freezing rain, but those amounts look light at this time. We stay very cold all week following the storm so little melting will take place as temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the next week. I expect many valley locations to see some morning with lows below zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This isn’t some bombing out 985 cutter going from Nashville to Cleveland attacking a marginal cold air mass… We have a weak low getting up to WV attacking an impressive Arctic air mass that will secondary off of the DelMarVa. Yes, the LSV will eventually mix, but not as quickly as this NAM is showing… I just don't want a foot of snow with 3 or 4 inches of sleet and ZR frozen solid on top. Not fun trying to clean that up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My low temp was 4 in Marysville. Currently temp is 9 Current dew point is -4 Arctic air is certainly in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: My low temp was 4 in Marysville. Currently temp is 9 Current dew point is -4 Arctic air is certainly in place. This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, canderson said: This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating It’s fine on top of our 12.3 of snow. Pack retention. Lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CTP with some humor this morning Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared to the previous cycle. What could go wrong? Typical uncertainty surrounding the depth and northward push of the mid level warm nose. This shows up the most along and south of the PA Turnpike where sleet/freezing rain could cut down on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, canderson said: This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating Sleet, eh it is what it is. Rain. Give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It’s already snowing in Tennessee. Precip looks to really be blossoming & moving rather quickly east to northeast. Maybe we get an earlier start time while the cold is still fully entrenched? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I’m ok with sleet, no freezing rain. Please no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WGAL sticking with their original forecast good for them! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It’s already snowing in Tennessee. Precip looks to really be blossoming & moving rather quickly east to northeast. Maybe we get an earlier start time while the cold is still fully entrenched?WAA always seems to outpace the models the question is how quickly do we saturate and start thumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The WRF suite also has copious sleet all through the afternoon hours and slightly reduced its totals from 0z. RRFS continues to mirror the NAM, but even worse, and has 4-7" across Lanc. The Mesos are talking to us. If the globals show further north trends and thermal breakdowns I will officially be a bit nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Sleet, eh it is what it is. Rain. Give me a break. 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: I’m ok with sleet, no freezing rain. Please no. I will be shocked if we see any freezing rain and frankly don't understand the forecasts that are mentioning it. I believe MAG or someone of the like brought this up last night and I agree, just don't see how anything other than frozen is possible with the extreme nature and depth of cold in the column. Even if there is a warm nose that melts the flakes up around 6,000' or so someone is going to need to explain to me how the F it would be possible for that droplet to fall the rest of the way to the surface in THAT cold without refreezing into an ice pellet? Like how?? There is more than enough depth to fall through and lord knows the temps are cold enough for the lowest few thousand feet. It would defy everything I know about winter precip. Someone smarter than me would need to smack some sense into me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Help me out. I'm trying to figure out when we last had a major storm with temps as "wall to wall" cold as this one's going to be. I'm thinking either 93 or 96. Most of the ones lately have been in the 20s to low 30s and as such most plowed roads melted off rather quickly. This one's not going to be so easy for the road crews nor the motoring public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NBM Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 42 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Bradford hit -18 wowsers. MDT may be on record watch on Tuesday. FV3, which is a model I typically loathe, is still showing a monster all-snow storm, so I will choose to ride it to the death this time haha...... I saw it and chuckled. Soon Time to pick a horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Voyager said: Help me out. I'm trying to figure out when we last had a major storm with temps as "wall to wall" cold as this one? I'm thinking either 93 or 96. Most of the ones lately have been in the 20s to low 30s and as such most plowed roads melted off rather quickly. This one's not going to be so easy for the road crews nor the motoring public. I think the February 2010 storms were during a wall-to-wall cold regime where it didn't warm up until the weekend after the 9th. Here's my message to the public related to the roads: If you're not forced to be on the roads on Sunday, stay home. Football is at 300 and 630 PM, run to the store today to get your beer and snacks and stay off the roads. Monday will be an issue with the blowing and the drifting, the blowing and the drifting, but I suspect Governor Shapiro will use the space lazers his folk apparently have to torch the roads clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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