Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

Anyone worried about power outages with the weekend storm?

 

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm wondering the same thing, and will there be wind ? Could be a bad setup with no power and those frigid temps...and if there's wind to boot.

Right now I would not be worried about significant, long duration power outages. There is no signal for high winds and this is going to be a light, fluffy snow. Looks like cold powder.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Eskimo Joe just posted WPC's thoughts on the north trend we're seeing in the MA thread. It's worth a read.

Wind shift here in Cocoa Beach last evening. 47 yesterday morning, it's 65 currently. Off to Ft. Lauderdale this morning and with that I'll have highs in the 80s the next several days.

Here's the link for everyone:

 

[AccuChris]

12z NAM has it a-coming


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[pasnownut]

@66 hrs, 12z NAM looks a lot like 6z Euro at surface 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

12z NAM has it a-coming


.

Extrapolate please 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Was just coming over to say the NAM at 84 looks like an incoming bomb for PA.

[sauss06]

2016 keeps being mentioned. i just looked. i recorded 33" for that. So yes please, sign me up

[GrandmasterB]

Dewpoints on the 84 hour NAM with precip on the doorstep. Don't see this very often:

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

2016 keeps being mentioned. i just looked. i recorded 33" for that. So yes please, sign me up

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. 

Then they verified. 

[paweather]

12z NAM is ready to go boom!

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. 

Then they verified. 

yep that was NAM's vs the rest if memory served.  Coup scored.  

[pasnownut]

Next up - its the Germans to keep hope alive.  

[AccuChris]

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. 
Then they verified. 

Remember it very well too! Hi Res NAM 48 hours out started spitting out stupid numbers for Lebanon ranging from 27”-35” at times leading up to it. Measured 32” when it was over


.

[CarlislePaWx]

The Jan 2016 storm produced the largest single storm total of my life with 35".  There were multiple hours with 3"/hr along with at least one hour with 4" and a whopping 5" for one hour.  Temp was in the mid to upper teens for the duration.  That storm was preceded by the early Feb 2010 storms with 27" for the first storm and another 13" 3 days later for the second storm.  40" of snow was more than the total season average.  The total snowfall for the 09-10 season was 70".  There's been nothing close to that in the 25 years I've lived here.  

By the way, my low this morning was +1.8 degrees F.  I failed to hit zero.  This was the coldest low thus far this winter.  I have a feeling there are going to be multiple sub-zero lows coming up in the next 2 weeks.

[pasnownut]

at 66, ICON rather Euroesqe

 

[GrandmasterB]

That’s a thing of beauty 

[pasnownut]

Icon at 84 slightly north of 6z

 

[Superstorm]

It shows the better CAD signature you want to see.


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[mahantango#1]

35 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

2016 keeps being mentioned. i just looked. i recorded 33" for that. So yes please, sign me up

[mahantango#1]

26 minutes ago, canderson said:

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. 

Then they verified. 

I thought a lot of people didn't like the NAM? But to me (unless i'm wrong) it seemed pretty accurate for the snows we had so far this winter.

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

It shows the better CAD signature you want to see.


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was going to say the same.  Classic CAD signature on it.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[pasnownut]

Next up GFS.  at 84 a little less strung out.  

[pasnownut]

GFS at 90., qpf field a tick N 

 

[pasnownut]

at 96 GFS may take the bait and go whole hog here.  Man it looks nice

[AccuChris]

12z GFS AI QPF output was slightly better for PA compared to 6z


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[pasnownut]

at 114, its a Pa pummeling with more to come.  Liking the look.  May not be epic, but really really nice. 

[paweather]

[Eskimo Joe]

Key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for the entire subforum. Everyone gets snow in some way.

[pasnownut]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for the entire subforum. Everyone gets snow in some way.

snowmaps out to 114 also show tick N with best accums.