Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

50 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I have a Koti tractor with a rear blower/front bucket. But felt it wasn’t worth getting it out for 1.5” of snow.

Atta boy.  Shoulda known better.  Kioti's are nice.  Played on one when cutting wood every year (property owner had a dealership and always had the nice "demo" toys to play with).  If you saw that map above, that might warrant blowing the dust off the Kioti.  Enjoy.

[Blizzard of 93]

Back to the short term, the 0z NAM is not giving up on Thursday and gives even the LSV 1 to 2 inches.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Pure fantasy…..

For now, virtual reality sounds fine, right?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, AMDEW80 said:

WOW that is impressive, fingers crossed! Just don’t like the snow hole up here, I want over 4 feet as well

Might be headed to cabin this weekend.  Not sure yet.  I'm told the weekend rain froze and made it a real icy mess up on the hill.  Mtn roads are almost impassable.  Do you agree?  Looks like a couple inches coming tomorrow night.  If wet, it'd prob help.  If fluffy....ugh.  We were slippin and sliding 2 weekends ago.  Groin still recovering, but I'd like to get up. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Woah how do you ignore users? I don’t see that option! 

If this news gets published here....

I might not have anyone to chat w/ me anymore.....hehe

edit:  i see it has..I'm wonding if Im being purged as we speak.  

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey y'all!! Wanted to drop by and say we are looking closely at that time frame between the 23rd thru the 30th this month for active weather potential. SWFE type pattern that tends to have good promise for the state. Obviously where the baroclinic zone ends up is the key in all this, but the pattern shaping up seems to be trending in that direction. This has been on many Met's radar's for the past week or so and seems to be holding weight. GFS run was obviously the most extreme fantasy you'll ever see for the pattern (Not happening), but the type of setup is certainly plausible given the confluent area to the north and a weakening SER to our south. For now, just some clipper and squall type snows as the troughing pattern returns for a period. 

Hey man.  Good to hear from you.  Glad that you are liking where we are headed.   Lets just hope baroclinic zone wavers south for some of these.  SWFE's are some of my favorite, as frequency is usually every couple days, and ya just need to see what side of the snow fence you are on for each of them.  

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Back to the short term, the 0z NAM is not giving up on Thursday and gives even the LSV 1 to 2 inches.

saw the forecast on my app little to no accumulation tho most fav words of weather around here for forecasts.  why bother with a weather alert if the write up is a copy and paste of that 

[pasnownut]

and as I suggested a few days back, it might be into the mid range until things get sorted out. 

With that in mind, 0z's are coming around to the idea of a lot coming at us, and look a tad better for this weekend as well.  ICON/GFS/CMC are stepping in the right direction.  1/24 nuke job, we'll find out in a few.  

 

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Some peeps just want somthin to complain about.  I don't get that one bit.  Who f'in cares if they are calling for 46 and its +/- a couple.  Whoopy f'in doo.  

Sounds like the Debbie train is loaded n full steam ahead.  

Sometimes I'll jokingly post about it, but not to complain about it. 

[mahantango#1]

Flash freeze?

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

PAZ010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-150945-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain mixing with or changing to snow along with plummeting
temperatures below freezing could result in slippery conditions late
tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

[pawatch]

24 degrees this morning.

Thanks Blizz and MillvilleWX for maps and thoughts.

 What a roll coaster of a week. A little bit of everything. Doesn’t sound like the wind  is going to be leaving us. 

43 for the high yesterday. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 39. Perhaps some of us get to wake up to a whitened yard tomorrow morning and then hoping for some vibrant tracking come the last week of January. Onward. 

[mahantango#1]

ABC27 said basically they are taking snow out of their forecast for the overnight hours tonight. Didn't even mention possible icy roads tomorrow morning. Nws on the other hand issued a HWO for possible slippery travel overnight and early tomorrow morning. I have a Dr. appoint in Camphill @7:30am tomorrow and i'm on the fence of canceling it, because of possible icy roads. And being about 40 miles from the place where my appointment is scheduled for, forecast matters. And I doubt Penndot will do anything until there is icy conditions or accidents, in my neck of the woods. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Maybe the possible icy conditions will not exist tomorrow morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

[anotherman]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

[mahantango#1]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

Hopefully we get our paralyzing snowstorm.

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

IMO its really the SS starting to fire back up that is throwing the models into fits, as there are so many vorts coming at us, they are trying to figure out what (if any) interaction there may be between the 2 streams and as yall should know by now, it doesnt take much to make sumthin when you sit near the boundary.  For that reason, I think, is why its really inside 72-96 till the picture starts to get less fuzzy.  Thats why I've not written off this period like many others have.  In the end, I may be wrong, but I'm just followin my guy on this one (and by following gut, that doesnt mean something will happen), 6z GFS is gettin notably closer for weekend.  Might be sniffin cirrus back here while easters see some flakage.  

[pasnownut]

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. 

I guess it really is "up in the air" right now.  hehe

[ChescoWx]

Of note today back in 1912 Chester County recorded its lowest temperature on record of 19 degrees below zero at Coatesville 1SW. This was equaled at Phoenixville 1E (1/22/61) and Octoraro Lake (1/22/84.) Nothing close to that today here in Chesco...however our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week. This is also on average our coldest week of the year. We could see some light rain both today and especially later tonight this may change to a bit of light snow toward tomorrow morning which could make for some slippery spots for rush hour. Temperatures tomorrow will fall through the 20's during the day. We stay below freezing on Friday but moderate a bit with a bit of snow possible on Saturday with the arrival of the arctic front. Next week will feature well below normal temperatures.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

We are looking at one heck of a midnight high tonight, with temps perhaps ten degrees greater than our daytime highs tomorrow.

[mahantango#1]

JB this morning: 

As for snow. Week two with the negative PNA for a time vs the negative NAO means warm air will be able to fight and create oppurtunities, the risk is that storms pull far enough north before sensing the negative NAO so some places warm up ,. That is most likely from the mid miss Valley to about where I am, the northeast likes to get snow out of this as storms tend to shift south further east

As far as the week 1 sucker runs. Look every once in while you get a digging trough in the northern branch that hits the jackpot. The most famous example is the blizzard of 78, a phase 7 running into 8 storm that came diving out of central canada. But most of the time unless you can have some warm advection, producing snowstorm out of height falls is a tough thing to do. Not saying it cant happen, but a wave with a strong baroclinic zone like for instance we saw in 1994 with a few events is a better bet, and week 2 looks like we have that window

[Superstorm]

Man the GFS is close to something big


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Man the GFS is close to something big


.

Sure is. My trip to the sunshine state looks like it's getting moved up 24 hours to Saturday. I'm driving, and I'm going to have to get really far south to miss this on Sunday morning. Snow practically gets down to Brunswick GA. 

[Itstrainingtime]

My once a year snow map share:

That is WAY west of 6z. Let's see what happens with the rest of the suite. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Man the GFS is close to something big
 

Yep, trough axis gave it a chance to come up and not out.  a little more dig on HH and beyond, and we might get into a notable event.  Even as depicted on nooner, I think LSV and easters would approve

[pasnownut]

CMC/Icon also ticked west for Sunday funday storm.  Enough time/moves left for this to be next on watch list.  Still a progressive trough, and not a longwave stable look, so it needs to dig and pop fast, as any delay in doing so would be headed for scooterville (SE Coast/fishy) kinda deal.  

[ChescoWx]

There has been a lot of complaints on my FB page that we have had a "snow drought" this season. So I posted the below. "Through today some of you may be surprised to learn that here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA we are actually above normal in seasonal snowfall through today. With one significant snow and a bunch of little events we are at 12.8" of snow this season. Average through today is only 9.4". This means over 75% of our annual snowfall on average remains to fall. Here in Western Chester County, we average 36.1" of snow while Eastern Chester County is ~32" of snow. Maybe surprising to some of you but over at the PHL Airport they only average 21.7" of snow. Of note we on average are not too far off of the average snowfall for Chicago IL (38.4"). Any surprises with these stats? Below is our average snowfall by month. October (0.4") / November (1.2") / December (5.5") / January (9.7") / February (12.8") / March (6.0") / April (0.4")"

[AMDEW80]

14 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Might be headed to cabin this weekend.  Not sure yet.  I'm told the weekend rain froze and made it a real icy mess up on the hill.  Mtn roads are almost impassable.  Do you agree?  Looks like a couple inches coming tomorrow night.  If wet, it'd prob help.  If fluffy....ugh.  We were slippin and sliding 2 weekends ago.  Groin still recovering, but I'd like to get up. 

Not sure about north facing mountain roads, but overall the thaw over the last week melted the vast majority of the ice.  There are only spotty areas of snow and ice in shaded spots where I am, down to grass almost everywhere. So happy that mess is gone, hopefully we get a little snow tonight to make it white again.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Euro isn't buying what the GFS is trying to sell. Yet.