Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

50 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I have a Koti tractor with a rear blower/front bucket. But felt it wasn’t worth getting it out for 1.5” of snow.

Atta boy.  Shoulda known better.  Kioti's are nice.  Played on one when cutting wood every year (property owner had a dealership and always had the nice "demo" toys to play with).  If you saw that map above, that might warrant blowing the dust off the Kioti.  Enjoy.

[Blizzard of 93]

Back to the short term, the 0z NAM is not giving up on Thursday and gives even the LSV 1 to 2 inches.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Pure fantasy…..

For now, virtual reality sounds fine, right?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, AMDEW80 said:

WOW that is impressive, fingers crossed! Just don’t like the snow hole up here, I want over 4 feet as well

Might be headed to cabin this weekend.  Not sure yet.  I'm told the weekend rain froze and made it a real icy mess up on the hill.  Mtn roads are almost impassable.  Do you agree?  Looks like a couple inches coming tomorrow night.  If wet, it'd prob help.  If fluffy....ugh.  We were slippin and sliding 2 weekends ago.  Groin still recovering, but I'd like to get up. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Woah how do you ignore users? I don’t see that option! 

If this news gets published here....

I might not have anyone to chat w/ me anymore.....hehe

edit:  i see it has..I'm wonding if Im being purged as we speak.  

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey y'all!! Wanted to drop by and say we are looking closely at that time frame between the 23rd thru the 30th this month for active weather potential. SWFE type pattern that tends to have good promise for the state. Obviously where the baroclinic zone ends up is the key in all this, but the pattern shaping up seems to be trending in that direction. This has been on many Met's radar's for the past week or so and seems to be holding weight. GFS run was obviously the most extreme fantasy you'll ever see for the pattern (Not happening), but the type of setup is certainly plausible given the confluent area to the north and a weakening SER to our south. For now, just some clipper and squall type snows as the troughing pattern returns for a period. 

Hey man.  Good to hear from you.  Glad that you are liking where we are headed.   Lets just hope baroclinic zone wavers south for some of these.  SWFE's are some of my favorite, as frequency is usually every couple days, and ya just need to see what side of the snow fence you are on for each of them.  

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Back to the short term, the 0z NAM is not giving up on Thursday and gives even the LSV 1 to 2 inches.

saw the forecast on my app little to no accumulation tho most fav words of weather around here for forecasts.  why bother with a weather alert if the write up is a copy and paste of that 

[pasnownut]

and as I suggested a few days back, it might be into the mid range until things get sorted out. 

With that in mind, 0z's are coming around to the idea of a lot coming at us, and look a tad better for this weekend as well.  ICON/GFS/CMC are stepping in the right direction.  1/24 nuke job, we'll find out in a few.  

 

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Some peeps just want somthin to complain about.  I don't get that one bit.  Who f'in cares if they are calling for 46 and its +/- a couple.  Whoopy f'in doo.  

Sounds like the Debbie train is loaded n full steam ahead.  

Sometimes I'll jokingly post about it, but not to complain about it. 

[mahantango#1]

Flash freeze?

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

PAZ010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-150945-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain mixing with or changing to snow along with plummeting
temperatures below freezing could result in slippery conditions late
tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

[pawatch]

24 degrees this morning.

Thanks Blizz and MillvilleWX for maps and thoughts.

 What a roll coaster of a week. A little bit of everything. Doesn’t sound like the wind  is going to be leaving us. 

43 for the high yesterday. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 39. Perhaps some of us get to wake up to a whitened yard tomorrow morning and then hoping for some vibrant tracking come the last week of January. Onward. 

[mahantango#1]

ABC27 said basically they are taking snow out of their forecast for the overnight hours tonight. Didn't even mention possible icy roads tomorrow morning. Nws on the other hand issued a HWO for possible slippery travel overnight and early tomorrow morning. I have a Dr. appoint in Camphill @7:30am tomorrow and i'm on the fence of canceling it, because of possible icy roads. And being about 40 miles from the place where my appointment is scheduled for, forecast matters. And I doubt Penndot will do anything until there is icy conditions or accidents, in my neck of the woods. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Maybe the possible icy conditions will not exist tomorrow morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

[anotherman]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

[mahantango#1]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

Hopefully we get our paralyzing snowstorm.

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

IMO its really the SS starting to fire back up that is throwing the models into fits, as there are so many vorts coming at us, they are trying to figure out what (if any) interaction there may be between the 2 streams and as yall should know by now, it doesnt take much to make sumthin when you sit near the boundary.  For that reason, I think, is why its really inside 72-96 till the picture starts to get less fuzzy.  Thats why I've not written off this period like many others have.  In the end, I may be wrong, but I'm just followin my guy on this one (and by following gut, that doesnt mean something will happen), 6z GFS is gettin notably closer for weekend.  Might be sniffin cirrus back here while easters see some flakage.  

[pasnownut]

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. 

I guess it really is "up in the air" right now.  hehe